Trevor Williams Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Trevor Williams has just an 11.7 K% with a 7.20 ERA and 6.15 SIERA over the last month. However, he’s allowed just three runs over his last 13 innings with one of those starts at Coors and has a 9.0 SwStr% to go with that minuscule strike out rate in August. There’s no argument to be made that he’s actually been good this year. His ERA and all non-FIP estimators are above five along with a .342 xwOBA as his contact management has regressed back to the league average this season (87.5 mph aEV, 7.9% Barrels/BBE). That’s generally not going to cut it with a 17.3 K% in this era. However, Williams also has the absolute top park and weather adjusted matchup on the board by a fairly wide margin. Along with a 66 wRC+ on the road, the Marlins have a 75 wRC+, 18.9 K-BB% and 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP. Over the last week, they have lowest wRC+ (51) and highest strikeout rate (34.1%) on the board. Williams costs just $6.6K on DraftKings tonight.

Trevor Williams is a strong contact manager (85.4 mph aEV) with just an 18.1 K%. His strikeout rate has spiked to 28.1% over the last month, but that's a bit misleading with just a 9.1 SwStr%. Still an improvement over his 7.7% mark for the season. This has increased Williams' price above $9K on either site, yet the Cubs are also implied for five runs even tonight. While the forecast does call for a light wind blowing out, cooler temperatures could offset that effect. It's possible both sides are over-valued here. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .290 wOBA against Williams this year and while xwOBA raises both sides substantially (34 to 49 points), that still only puts him in a league average range within six points of .320 either way. Each of the first five Cubs in the order are between a 120 and 140 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Ben Zobrist (126 wRC+, .155 ISO) is below a .190 ISO. These Cubs are certainly playable at mostly reasonable prices, except Javier Baez (132 wRC+, .270 ISO), if not paying up for pitching.

BvP is not a metric DFS players trust very much, but it's just a nine game slate and we're talking about perhaps the leading MVP candidate in the National League. Even though Trevor Williams is an excellent contact manager (85.6 mph aEV) in a negative run environment in St Louis, players were probably already considering Matt Carpenter (150 wRC+, .291 ISO, 49.1 Hard% vs RHP this year). Adding fuel to the fire, Carp has faced Williams 22 times. After walking six times, he has 16 official PAs with three HRs and a double. It's not the 87 mph aEV in this matchup that's impressive, but the 33 degree average launch angle that's resulted in an wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .600 in these matchups.

Trevor Williams does not generate a lot of hard contact (85.8 mph aEV), but still somehow allows a lot of Barrels/BBE (8.1%) and is in a horrific spot with a substantial park downgrade in Cleveland tonight. The Indians top the board with 5.42 implied runs against the low strikeout pitcher (17.1%) and three batters who destroy RHP at the top of the lineup. Francisco Lindor (138 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (136 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .328 ISO) are rarely poor choices at home if affordable. Yandy Diaz (115 wRC+, .102 ISO) is the interesting bat in the cleanup spot at a low price. He hits the ball hard, but usually on the ground (58.3 career GB%). Yonder Alonso (123 wRC+, .185 ISO) is a reasonable first base choice.

The Nationals are one of two clear top offenses on the afternoon slate. At 4.88 implied runs, only one team is higher and the next best projected run line is over a half run lower. Trevor Williams is a contact manager (85.6 mph aEV), but hasn't been doing enough of that to prevent runs (at least three in 10 of last 12 starts) and did not strike out a single batter in his last start (Phillies). While LHBs have a wOBA (.320) 19 points above RHBs since last season, xwOBA reverses that and puts RHBs (.340) 22 points above LHBs, likely due to the discrepancy in hard contact (LHBs 24.9%, RHBs 33.8%). He has a league average ground ball rate either way. The Nationals make it easy. The first five batters in the order all exceed a 125 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year with only leadoff man, Adam Eaton (149 wRC+, .118 ISO) below a .214 ISO. Each of the first four batters exceed a .375 xwOBA against RHP over the last calendar year.