Triston McKenzie Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Depending on what Don Mattingly eventually decides to do at his leisure (no hurry Donny), there are either one or two $10K pitchers on tonight’s five game slate. Twenty starts into his career, Shane McClanahan has a 20.4 K-BB% resulting in a matching 3.59 ERA and SIERA. However, issues with the contact profile (91.3 mph EV) drive his xERA up to 4.59. He’s been extremely lucky to have just three of 12 barrels (14.8%) leave the yard over his last five starts. He costs exactly $10.1K on either site and factors in his favor include a very negative controlled run environment in the dome and faces a Boston team depleted by COVID, though they still have several of their most potent RH bats available. There are three batters in the projected Boston lineup above a 28 K% vs LHP this season.

Should the Marlins decide to simply push everyone back a day and go with Zach Thompson, McClanahan is the likely the top pitcher on the board. Should the Marlins decide to go with Sandy Alcantara, he’d be the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($10.5K), but more than $2K less on DraftKings and quite possibly the top pitcher on the board. Outside of getting rocked for 10 runs in Colorado, Sandy Alcantara has thrown at least seven innings with at least seven strikeouts and two runs or less in five of his last six starts. All estimators are above his 3.27 ERA, but only his 3.86 SIERA by more than half a run. He, too, should be in a negative run environment at City Field against a Mets’ offense with a 93 wRC+ vs RHP. There is some power without a lot of strikeouts in this lineup though.

There are two additional pitchers of interest on this board, both coming on in recent starts. In the month of August, Triston McKenzie started four games, striking out 28 of 98 batters, allowing six runs over 28 innings with just two walks. McKenzie has just a 4.3 BB% in eight games since returning, cutting his Barrels/BBE down to 7% too. Estimators are all below his 4.83 ERA, though only his xERA is below four (3.97) on the season. Kansas City is probably the least pitcher friendly park among these four pitchers, but it does suppress power and the Royals have just an 84 wRC+ vs RHP, while five of nine projected batters exceed a 26 K% vs RHP this season. McKenzie is within $3K of $9K on either site and could be a top value if he continues on his recent path of newfound success.

Despite poor surface results, you could see some signs in recent starts that Carlos Carrasco might be starting to round into form. He does have a 13.1 SwStr% through six starts and experienced a velocity bump in his last start. He’s only stranded 55.6% of runners and has allowed six barrels in 100 plate appearances, but just one over his last two starts. A 4.14 xERA is his highest non-FIP estimator. Carrasco is in a great spot, facing the Marlins (88 wRC+ vs RHP) at home. The projected lineup includes five batters above a 23 K% vs RHP. Carrasco is in the middle of the board at $8K on DraftKings, but just $6.8K on FanDuel. Carrasco worked through seven innings, though just 78 pitches in each of his last two starts, but is probably a strong bet for a quality start tonight.

Triston McKenzie struck out just three of 18 Cardinals, walking as many after striking out 10 of 20 Tigers in his major league debut. The team’s third ranked prospect with a 50 Future Value grade, according to Fangraphs, has increased his velocity along with reports that his slider and changeup have evolved to give him workable third and fourth pitches. His 16.3 K-BB% at AA is his only action above A ball, but also the only time he’s been below a 20 K-BB% at any minor league level. This is another nice spot for him in Kansas City. The Royals have an 88 wRC+ and 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Once you get past the top third of the lineup, nobody else is above a .325 wOBA or .185 ISO against RHP since 2019. McKenzie is reasonably priced at $8K on FanDuel.