Troy Tulowitzki Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

CC Sabathia is currently in an impressive three-start stretch where he's allowed two earned runs or less in each outing while recording a quality start in two of them. However, if we take a deeper look, Sabathia faced the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, and Kansas City Royals in his last three starts. These teams currently rank 23rd, 18th, and 28th in wOBA against left-handed pitching respectively, while the Athletics and Rays present significant strikeout upside to southpaws as well. Despite Sabathia posting solid surface results of late, he is still surrendering a 38.8% hard hit rate to right-handed batters, which is worrisome considering an impressively low hard contact rate was key to his resurgence last season. Sabathia will also draw the unenviable task of shutting down this suddenly potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup on Thursday night. Now that Jose Bautista is looking like his old self and Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki are back in the fold, it shouldn't take long for Toronto to improve their middling 16th ranked wOBA against southpaws. The Blue Jays may not have the highest run upside on tonight's 4-game slate, but they certainly do possess the most power upside. Josh Donaldson (150 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .235 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is clear top option in this Blue Jays lineup and looks to be rounding into form following his stint on the disabled list, while Justin Smoak (114 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .202 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Jose Bautista should be considered as secondary options. Kevin Pillar (109 wRC+, .336 wOBA vs LHP since 2016) has decent plate skills against lefties but is better utilized as a part of Blue Jays stack in tournaments given his lack of individual power upside.

Julio Teheran's difficulties with LHBs have been documented (.355 wOBA, 31 HRs since 2015), but one in particular that gives him fits is Bryce Harper, who has homered five times (36 PAs) against him and has a 93.2 mph aEV on 12 Statcast recorded BBE. While Harper takes today's BvP top prize, Jose Bautista has also homered four times off Rick Porcello (46 PAs), but with a much lower 89.1 mph aEV on 12 recorded BBE. Porcello has also struggled against Justin Smoak (3 HRs, 27 PAs), who has a 95.8 mph aEV on six BBE. Porcello also has allowed the highest aEV to any batter with more than 10+ recorded BBE in a BvP to Troy Tulowitzki, who has not homered or even had an extra-base hit in 20 PAs, but does have a 93.3 mph aEV on 11 recorded BBE.

Josh Donaldson is still out with an injury tonight, but his absence may be a blessing for players looking for more affordable offensive options tonight. Wade Miley was somehow allowed to stick around long enough to walk seven batters in his first start and RHBs have a .343 wOBA against him with 37 HRs since 2015. The Toronto lineup is still entirely RH against Miley tonight with only Jose Bautista (120 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2015 with only a .227 BABIP) above $4K on DraftKings and no starter more than $3.3K on FanDuel. Bautista leads a contingent of RHBs including Kendrys Morales, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin and Steve Pearce all with a wRC+ between 109 and 127 with an ISO between .169 and .214 vs LHP since 2015. The Blue Jays have an implied run line of just 4.3 tonight.

Kevin Gausman is looking to bounce back after a middling performance against the New York Yankees in his previous start, giving up four earned runs in just 4.2 innings pitched. One of his primary issues in the early going has been the walks, issuing seven free passes in just 10 innings of work (14.3% BB%) but is something we should expect to regress to the mean given his 6.2% walk rate in both 2015 and 2016. Tonight, Gausman is scheduled to take the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays, who possess some massive power from the right side of the plate, which normally would be something we'd expect to be neutralized by a talented right-handed pitcher. However, to this point in his career, Gausman has exhibited some significant reserve splits, posting a minuscule .284 wOBA to lefties opposed to .349 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Outside of a high 1.63 HR/9 and 7.3% walk rate to righties in 2016, the rest of Gausman's splits were relatively neutral, which could signal some possible normalization of his massive wOBA splits this season. Toronto strikes out at a high clip against right-handed pitching, with a 22.4% mark in 2016 and 23.9% so far this season. The risk for Gausman is exaggerated here with the fact that his biggest weakness to this point in his career has been allowing home runs to right-handed batters, and that is exactly what this Blue Jays lineup can do well. This is a clear boom or bust matchup for each side, as either the Gausman or the Blue Jays bats could go off for big games. The primary bats that Gausman will need to navigate around are Josh Donaldson (158 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .274 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Jose Bautista (118 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .207 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Troy Tulowitzki (.199 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and should be key cogs of any Blue Jays stack if deciding to take that route.

The Toronto RH bats are among the most appealing targets on tonight's slate against Chase Anderson, who struggles mightily against RH bats but doesn't fare particularly well against bats from either side of the plate. Part of the reason Anderson struggles against RH bats is because he has more of a lefty approach as a pitcher, utilizing his change-up often (about 25% of the time last season) while rarely topping out above 91-92 MPH with his fastball. Last season, he allowed a .394 wOBA to RH bats (.289 vs. LHs) with a whopping 17 HRs allowed (1.87 HR/9), so it's going to be hard not to look to a lineup loaded with RH bats this evening (Toronto doesn't have a true LH bat in the lineup, just one switch hitter). Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly environment, Anderson actually fared worse on the road from a HR perspective, allowing a 2.11 HR/9 rate to RH bats. All of the Toronto bats in the top seven of the order are squarely in play, and paying a premium for guys like Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson is certainly warranted, as the field may not be privy to Anderson's reverse splits. Donaldson finished 2016 with a .405 wOBA, .272 ISO and 41.0 hard% against RHP, including blasting 30 of his 37 HRs off RHs. Jose Bautista has gotten off to a rough start against RHs this season - he's just 2-22 so far - but he had better numbers against RHP in 2016, finishing with a .361 wOBA and .220 ISO. Devon Travis is still far too cheap on FanDuel ($2.4K), setting him up as an across the board play there, and the same goes for Troy Tulowitzki who is sitting at just $2,800. Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin and Steve Pearce are also options on the Toronto side.

Ryan Merritt is one of two rookie starters today, but at least Urias has some major league experience and a strong pedigree. Merritt has one major league start and has struck out just six of 37 major league batters. In over 300 innings of AA and AAA experience since the start of 2015, he's had a strikeout rate below 16% at every single stop and stint. Nearly immaculate control is the reason he's even made it to the majors. The Blue Jays had a 108 wRC+ and .185 ISO at home this season, but were just league average (100 wRC+, .168 ISO) vs LHP to the surprise of most people this year. Aside from having the advantage of being an unknown quantity, the Jays should have a major edge here against the soft-tossing rookie. Encarnacion (142 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP) and Donaldson (150 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP) have to be considered two of the top bats on the board today, while Melvin Upton (132 wRC+, .258 ISO vs LHP) and Jose Bautista (103 wRC+, .209 ISO) are the only other batter in the lineup that can boast either an ISO above .165 (Troy Tulowitzki) or wRC+ above 109 (Darwin Barney) vs LHP.

Three of today's teams have batters with multiple HRs against the pitcher they are facing in Game One of their ALDS series. Carlos Santana has three HRs in 46 PAs against Rick Porcello, but most of those when he was pitching for Detroit as Statcast only has exit velocity on two batted balls since last season. The batters with the most recorded batted ball exit velocity (16) and tied for the most HRs (3) is Carlos Beltran facing Marco Estrada. In 35 total PAs, Beltran has an above average 93.5 mph aEV on those 16 recorded batted balls since last season. Not a surprise with both playing in the AL East for most of that span. Two Toronto batters (Encarnacion and Tulowitzki) each have two HRs against Hamels with both of Tulo's coming in Philadelphia. Tulo also has the highest average exit velocity (96.2 mph) in any of the BvP matchups with more than five batted balls since last season, despite just a .217 career batting average against Hamels. One last interesting note is that Ian Desmond has three recorded batted balls with a 102.7 mph aEV against Marco Estrada, but has struck out in 10 of 18 career PAs against him.

Cole Hamels may easily have the most upside on this small slate. His 23.6 K% is the highest among the four starters, his 9.1 BB% with at least three walks in 15 of 32 starts suggests some blowup potential as well against an offense with the fourth highest walk rate against LHP (10.2%). Another consideration might be that rostering him likely means you're sacrificing most middle of the order bats from any lineup as the highest priced pitcher (or at least tied) on either site. The Blue Jays actually had a higher wRC+ (103 vs 100) and more power (15.0 HR/FB vs 13.0 HR/FB) vs RHP, but Hamels allowed 12 of his 24 HRs this year at home to RHBs even if he did have better peripherals against them (15.4 K-BB% vs 10.8 K-BB% vs LHBs). Josh Donaldson was the leading Toronto hitter vs LHP this year (150 wRC+, .240 ISO), but Edwin Encarnacion (142 wRC+, .247 ISO) wasn't far behind, while both he and Troy Tulowitzki (104 wRC+, .165 ISO vs LHP this season) both have two HRs with an average exit velocity above 96 mph against Hamels in their career. Each of Tulo's HRs came in Philadelphia, not Colorado.

As mentioned in an earlier alert, five Toronto bats have multiple HRs against Chris Tillman with Tulowtizki, Encarnacion, Bautista and Pillar all owning three HRs against him and Saunders two. Josh Donaldson has just one HR, but five doubles in 36 career PAs and a 92.8 mph aEV on 22 batted balls since the beginning of last season (the largest PvB batted ball sample in the WC round). Don't expect Buck Showalter to allow Tillman to hang around too long if he starts to smell trouble though. This is a winner take all game with a Baltimore bullpen that had the third lowest ERA in the majors (3.40) with 5.5 fWAR (fifth). This is Tillman's game to start, but could be the bullpen's game quickly if things go awry. The Blue Jays are the favorite in this game, currently projected for 4.4 runs.

While both Chris Tillman and Marcus Stroman generated hard hit rates right around the league average between 31.5% and 31.7%, Tillman allowed much more contact in the air (1.13 GB/FB), which could cause problems for him tonight, especially with the roof open. Although he did not allow a HR against the Blue Jays in two of his four starts against them this season, he did not pitch very well despite decent traditional results (22.1 IP - 10 R - 9 ER - 9 BB - 16 K - 93 BF). Additionally, four Toronto batters (Encarnacion, Pillar, Tulowitzki, Bautista) all have homered three times against Tillman in their career. While all except Pillar have a 93+ mph aEV on at least nine batted balls since the beginning of 2015 against him, both he and Tulo have hit their HRs in fewer than 25 career PAs in this matchup. Michael Saunders also has two HRs against Tillman in 20 PAs. Tillman has an 11.0 career HR/FB that's usually been around league average, though he's held that this year (10.5 HR/FB), while starting pitchers in general allowed an all-time high 13.3 HR/FB this season.