Tyler Anderson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Lance Lynn has one of the top spots on the board against the Tigers, but there are a number of high upside matchups on this board that don’t belong to the highest priced pitchers, including Tyler Anderson vs the Marlins (91 wRC+, 28.5 K% vs LHP), Elieser Hernandez at the Pirates (82 wRC+, 8.0 HR/FB vs RHP), Jon Duplantier at the Brewers (76 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs RHP) and Griffin Canning vs the Mariners (87 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP). Hernandez and Duplantier each have made one start and appearance this year with the former’s coming on April 3rd and the latter last week. Hernandez has pitched 28 innings since last season. In 176 career innings, he has a league average 14.5 K-BB%, 88.1 mph EV, 7.4% Barrels/BBE and 10.6 SwStr%. He’s struck out 17 of 48 with three walks over 12.1 AAA rehab innings and should be stretched out enough to handle whatever workload the Marlins wish to hand him. He might have some value as an SP2 on DraftKings at $7.6K if most of the player base is going to bypass him. The highest wOBA in the projected Pittsburgh lineup vs RHP since last season is .330, the highest ISO is .195 and six of eight are above a 24 K%. Duplantier struck out five of 25 Cardinals. Over 41.1 career innings, the 26 year-old has a 10.1 K-BB% with league average batted ball and contact profiles The highest wOBA in the projected Milwaukee lineup vs RHP since last season is .326, the highest ISO is .175 and five of eight are above a 24 K%. So, ditto for Duplantier on DraftKings at just $5.2K, but at that price, he’ll likely garner significant consideration behind a higher priced pitcher in this spot.

Increased velocity and spin rates in April have decreased in May, leading to an ERA and FIP above five for Anderson last month. Seven of his 10 Barrels (11.4%) left the yard last month with a 91.3 mph EV, even if the 15.9 K-BB% stayed on target. While the Marlins have been a bit more dangerous against LHP (four projected batters above a .345 wOBA and/or .220 ISO vs LHP since 2020), there are also five batters above a 27 K% vs LHP since last year projected. Despite the dropoff, Anderson has to be strongly considered in this spot on either site with a marginal price tag. Canning is a bit more expensive and that could hurt his value because he’s only completed six innings twice (although in two of his last three starts) and hasn’t reached 95 pitches in an outing this year. However, he maintains an impressive 14.9 SwStr%, which suggests his 25.9 K% still has room to improve. A 10.3 BB% could be holding the strikeout rate back a bit, but the home run ball has been a major issue. The 89.4 mph EV is just a touch higher than average, but just 34.5% of his contact has been on the ground, resulting in 9.9% Barrels/BBE and a 22.2 HR/FB. That said, it seems a bit unlucky that 10 of his 11 Barrels have left the yard. His 4.47 xERA is still a run below his 5.40 ERA. Additional non-FIP estimators are slightly lower. Five of nine projected Mariners exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020, but considering they’re all projected in the latter half of the order, Canning may only face them twice. His price tag makes him a harder sell here.

One last pitcher to talk about might be Anthony DeSclafani as a leverage play because the Cubs have been red hot, coming off a sweep of the Padres at Wrigley, but they still have just a 98 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. DeSclafani has been a fairly average pitcher this season by peripherals (21.6 K%, 11.2 SwStr%, 4.23 SIERA), but his 3.40 xERA is closer to his 3.56 ERA and he’s allowed two or fewer runs in seven of 11 starts. He’s not going to go off and win you a GPP on his own, but with a price tag less than $8K, he has a chance to be one of the better and more under-utilized pitching options on a slate that doesn’t seem to have a lot of pitching value.

High upside spots, as defined by opposing strikeout rates, not belonging to top of the board pitchers tonight find Adrian Houser (at Reds), Anthony Kay (vs Rays), Chris Paddack (vs Mariners), Mike Minor (vs Tigers) and Tyler Anderson (at Braves). Six of eight projected starters for the Reds exceed a 24 K% against RHP since 2019, but Houser generates ground balls (60.2%), not strikeouts (20.6%, 7.5 SwStr%). Kay is $6K or less with a 16.1 K-BB%, but has not exceeded 18 batters in any appearance yet and while the Rays do strike out a ton, it’s not a bad lineup in a very dangerous park.

The remaining three seem somewhat more viable here. Despite a velocity increase, Paddack still hasn’t been able to recapture his rookie year success. He’s struck out just 21.1% with a 10.9 SwStr% and while a 6.8 BB% isn’t bad, it’s dropped his K-BB below average to a still respectable 14.3%. With a ground ball and exit velocity around league average, perhaps he’s just not a front end pitcher some expect him to be. There’s nothing wrong with a league average pitcher though, especially at a low price in this spot. Four of eight projected Mariners exceed a 28 K% vs RHP since 2019. Paddack is the most expensive of the three on DraftKings ($8.6K), but just $6.3K on FanDuel, where he could be a top value if efficient enough to get through six innings, something he’s not yet done this year.

The strikeout rate has jumped to 28.6% over the last month for Minor, but the swinging strike rate is actually in single digits (9.8%) over that span. On the season, he has the odd combination of a .245 BABIP, but 64.8 LOB% that has his ERA above five (5.02). Most estimators are in the low to mid-fours though and that should be good enough for the Tigers (58 wRC+, 33.7 K%, 4.9 HR/FB vs LHP) for less than $8K. Anderson, also less than $8K, might be the most interesting leverage play because players probably aren’t thinking of a predominantly RH Atlanta lineup has a high upside spot and they do have a 17.9 HR/FB vs southpaws this year, but that comes with an 87 wRC+ and 27.4 K%. Five of eight in the projected lineup exceed a 24.5 K% vs LHP since 2019 too. Anderson allowed more than three runs in a start for the first time this year last time out, but still struck out seven of 23 Giants, a team that normally punishes LHP. The velocity has dropped since April, but he’s still riding increased cutter usage (27.1%) to success with a 3.50 ERA that’s about a half run below non-FIP estimators with only a 4.03 SIERA above four.

Tyler Anderson probably deserves a bit more on his strikeout rate (15.8%, 10.1 SwStr%), but still had non-FIP estimators a run and a half above his 4.37 ERA last year. Statcast was a bit more sympathetic (4.77 xERA, .321 xwOBA) due to just 5.8% Barrels/BBE (86.8 mph EV). In his first start, also against the Cubs, he produced seven strikeouts on 23 swings and misses over 91 pitches in addition to an 86.6 mph EV on batted balls. He threw a lot of cutters (36.3%), burying them down and in against RHBs and complemented them with four seamers up and changeups away. The heat maps of his first start are truly things of beauty, but perhaps not something he can keep up on a consistent basis. Also of note, the spin rate was up significantly on most of his pitches. Other points of interest are that current Cubs combine for a .252 xwOBA and 27.3 K% over 77 PAs and that Pittsburgh greatly diminishes RH power. While the top half of the Cubs’ lineup is tough (three batters above a 120 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP since 2019), the bottom half includes three players below a 75 wRC+ against southpaws in addition to the pitcher’s spot. At just $6.6K on DraftKings, Anderson is the most interesting secondary piece if paying up for Corbin Burnes or Jose Berrios today.

Today is the best day of the post-season for MLB DFS, as it's the only day players are guaranteed four games. It's not surprising that it's a pitcher friendly slate (no team above 4.5 implied runs), but not a single pitcher exceeds $10K on DraftKings, though three are above $10K on FanDuel. Both Corey Kluber (35.3 K%, 2.56 SIERA, .262 xwOBA last 30 days) and Justin Verlander (41.7 K%, 1.92 SIERA, .209 xwOBA last 30 days) finished the season with a flourish and are pitching in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. The case against them is that both the Astros (19.2%) and Indians (18.8%) have two of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against RHP. Chris Sale (38.4 K%, 2.27 SIERA, .240 xwOBA this season) is the other high priced pitcher today and he comes with some concerns, mostly a significant velocity drop in his last start, though he did reach 92 pitches, his most since returning from the DL. He also has to contend with the Yankees (115 wRC+, 18.4 HR/FB vs LHP) in the most positive run environment on the board, though temperatures are expected to be in the 50s with the Yankees implied for just 3.2 runs. All of these factors combine to make Sale an interesting GPP option. J.A. Happ (26.3 K%, 3.64 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) will be receiving the same weather neutralizing benefit and costs less against an offense less potent against LHP (92 wRC+) and respectably struck out 13 of 49 Red Sox, allowing four ERs in 12 IP as a Yankee. Clayton Kershaw (23.9 K%, 3.45 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) faces a contact prone Atlanta offense (107 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs LHP), though they were shut down by another southpaw last night. While Anibal Sanchez (24.4 K%, 3.85 SIERA, .285 xwOBA) and Tyler Anderson (22.3 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .308 xwOBA) are both fine pitchers at a lower cost, both are facing difficult offenses (Dodgers 116 wRC+ vs RHP, Brewers 15.8 HR/FB vs LHP) with potentially quicker hooks as their teams each trail in their series. Jhoulys Chacin (19.6 K%, 4.59 SIERA, .331 xwOBA) is the worst pitcher on the board by most metrics, but also someone players may want to look at in their SP2 spot on DraftKings ($5.2K). He pitched great in Chicago and the Rockies struggle against RHP (82 wRC+) and on the road (78 wRC+). Additionally, the Milwaukee bullpen was worn out last night, while owning the lead in the series may give him a bit longer leash.

Wednesday night is a slate with some pitching value far beyond the most expensive arms. Robbie Erlin (20.5 K%, 3.46 SIERA, .306 xwOBA) is your potential DK punt play in an SP2 spot against the Giants (76 wRC+ on the road, 80 wRC+ vs LHP) for near the minimum. Tyler Anderson has a 23.3 K%, 3.70 SIERA and .319 xwOBA over the last month with a massive park bump for just $6.4K on FanDuel. What's the problem? He has to face the Dodgers (144 wRC+ last seven days) and has an actual 7.71 ERA for some reason over the last 30 days. Chris Archer (24.6 K%, 3.82 SIERA) is inconsistent, but gets to race the Royals (81 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs RHP) at a reasonable price (< $8K) in Pittsburgh. Dallas Keuchel does not miss bats, but gets lots of weak ground balls (53.9 GB%), pitches in a great park and has failed to complete six innings just four times since May. The Mariners will not help his strikeout rate any though (20.3% vs LHP). Luis Severino is less than $10K in a tough matchup (Red Sox 114 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP) in tough park, but there may be some value there if you believe in regression. He has a 31.3 K% and 2.66 SIERA over the last month. Then of course, there's the incredibly unpredictable Cole Hamels, Robbie Ray matchup in Arizona. Hamels has begun to falter over his last two starts with two HRs allowed last time out and five walks the time before. Ray has the highest strikeout rate on the board (30.9%), but also tops the board with a 40.2% 95+ mph EV and a 12.8% walk rate. Hamels could pitch a complete game and Ray strike out ten, but it's a pretty massive range of potential outcomes with these two.

Price ($4.8K), park (San Diego) and opposition (Rangers 83 wRC+ on the road, 91 wRC+ vs LHP and without a DH tonight) make Robbie Erlin (20 K%, 3.52 SIERA, .309 xwOBA) a likely complement to Max Scherzer on DraftKings. Tyler Anderson (22.4 K%, 4.21 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) is a bit more expensive in San Francisco (41 wRC+, 28.6 K% last seven days), but has just one quality start over his last eight. Dallas Keuchel (17.5 K%, 4.04 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has had mixed results recently, but has gone at least six innings 22 times this year and has the top ground ball rate on the board (54%) in perhaps the best park (Houston) at a reasonable price ($7.9K on DK) against the Diamondbacks (86 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs LHP). Chris Archer (24.2 K%, 3.85 SIERA, .332 xwOBA) remains inconsistent in a dangerous spot (Brewers 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP), but also a high upside one (Brewers 24.6 K% vs RHP) for $7.5K or less. Chris Stratton (19 K%, 3.95 SIERA, .325 xwOBA last 30 days) is cheap and at home against the Rockies (81 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP). Finally, some high strikeout arms (Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, and Noah Syndergaard) are just in terrible spots in Houston, vs LA (NL) and at Fenway tonight.

Tyler Anderson has not had a good month (7.16 ERA, 4.91 SIERA), but the Padres are implied for just 4.45 implied runs, despite having a few bats with power against LHP. Christian Villanueva (203 wRC+, .407 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Hunter Renfroe (131 wRC+, .309 ISO) are certainly worth playing here, despite Anderson's .304 wOBA against RHBs. Franmil Reyes (166 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Wil Myers (101 wRC+, .222 ISO) may be worth a shot as well.

On a solid pitching slate, they may be over-shadowed by either higher priced pitchers or more dangerous ones with higher strikeout rates in a similar price range, Tyler Anderson and Derek Holland may be two southpaws worth considering tonight. Anderson has pitched into the eighth inning in three of his last five starts and has allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts (four earned), all at home. Gone are the ground balls, but he’s missing bats at an above average rate (22.7 K%, 11.6 SwStr%) and has been an excellent contact manager (27.7% 95+ mph EV is best on the board, as is his .218 xwOBA over the last month). The Cardinals have a dangerous 17.5 HR/FB vs LHP, but it’s an otherwise marginal matchup with a significant park upgrade. Holland has had just two starts over the last four weeks (12.1 IP – 2 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 12 K – 46 BF), while working mostly in relief. While the park helps, the estimators are fine as well and his 24.1 K% is easily a career high, as is his 10.7 SwStr%. Statcast has the slider up from 12% to 23.5% with a .303 xwOBA and 41.4 Whiff% this year. LHBs have a .221 wOBA against and while RHBs are still at .341, they were over .400 last year. He moves from one great park to another one tonight and while the Padres have a bit of thump against LHP (14.8 HR/FB), that comes with an 88 wRC+ and 24.9 K%, along with a board low 62 wRC+ and 22 K-BB% over the last week (despite a 24 HR/FB).