Tyler Beede Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Conditions suggest that tonight could be a high scoring affair at Wrigley, but do you know what else suggests some runs will be put on the board? That would be Tyler Beede’s Statcast numbers. Despite calling one of the most negative run environments in baseball home, Beede has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts with eight HRs and a .371 xwOBA over that span. His 91.1 mph aEV and 45% 95+ mph EV on the season are both worst on the board by a decent margin. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The 6.26 implied run line for the Cubs is exceeded by only one other team tonight. Each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup for Chicago exceed both a 105 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, but the top value in the lineup could be Jason Heyward (119 wRC+, .209 ISO) if in the leadoff spot. He’s the lowest priced batter among those projected seven at just $4K on DraftKings. Anthony Rizzo (153 wRC+, .236 ISO) is the top overall bat in this spot.

On the year, Tyler Beede has been pretty unimpressive with a 5.38 ERA with a 4.97 xFIP, 5.0 SIERA, 20.5 % K rate, 10.1% BB rate and 11.5% SwStr. However, Beede has shown a bit better over the past 30 days as he has just a 4.6% BB rate, 4.50 xFIP, 4.47 SIERA, and a 12.8% SwStr while maintaining a 20% K rate. Beede has given up frequent loud contact (46.3% hard contact rate, 1.83 HR/9 on the year) but spacious and pitcher-friendly Oracle Park is probably the best park in baseball to give up contact. Beede gets a matchup tonight in Oracle Park with the Phillies, who have just a 91 wRC+ and 22.8% K rate vs. RHP on the year, as well as just an 83 wRC+ over the past 30 days. In addition to a good matchup and environment, Beede comes with just a $5.3k price on Draftkings which allows for lots of flexibility throughout the rest of your lineup. He is also cheap on Fanduel at a price of $6.5k. The Phillies currently have just a 4.39 implied line vs. Beede and the Giants tonight.

For the second night in a row, one of the more interesting pitching matchups takes place in San Francisco. Jacob deGrom is the obvious daily fantasy candidate with a 30.6 K%, 3.21 ERA, 3.44 SIERA, 2.27 DRA, and .271 xwOBA in a great park, even if the Giants own a 129 wRC+ since the break. A lot of that damage was done at Coors it took them 16 innings to score their second run last night. They have just a 74 wRC+ and 8.5 HR/FB at home this year. The bigger surprise might be Tyler Beede. After walking 15.4% of his first 182 batters this year, he’s gone back to back starts without walks coinciding with sudden increased slider usage. While he’s not a great contact manager, he does own a near average 21.4 K% this year and pitches in a park that can handle some hard contact. If he can cut down on the walks, he can go deeper into games, which the Giants may need him to do tonight after last night’s marathon. The Mets are a league average offense (98 wRC+, 14.2 K-BB% vs RHP) and the negative park effect may mean even more tonight with weather boosting effects expected in many parks around the country. Beede costs less than $7K on either site.

Many hitters in the Reds’ lineup has vastly underperformed their preseason projections. Tonight, they get a great matchup at home vs. Tyler Beede, who had a 7.05 ERA and 5.3 K-BB% in AAA last year. Though Beede has looked better in 2019 (1.99 ERA / 3.76 xFIP in 23 AAA innings) his overall numbers in the minors are underwhelming and he is certainly a pitcher to target tonight. Despite a nice matchup in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, all Reds hitters are $4.1k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Jesse Winker. Winker is still a good play with a .383 xwOBA vs. RHP since ’18. Joey Votto leads off and has mashed RHP since 2018 with a .399 xwOBA. Highly regarded prospect Nick Senzel makes his MLB debut tonight, batting 2nd at just $3.8k. He had a 149 wRC+ in AAA last year but had struggled so far this year with just a 77 wRC+ before getting the call up. Yasiel Puig bats 4th and carries a .349 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018. Derek Dietrich (.316 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) and Tucker Barnhart (.306) are also in play lower in the Reds’ order.

Tyler Beede sees his first major league action in over a year, when he posted a 2.5 K-BB% over 7.2 innings for the Giants last April. While he’s struck out 34 of the 91 batters he’s faced at AAA this season, he continues to flash a double digit walk rate at almost every stop he’s made in the system and hasn’t previously seen a strikeout rate above 23% since Low A in 2014. The 25 year-old is no longer much of a prospect and, as he’s converted from a ground ball to a fly ball pitcher the last few years, could have some difficulty in a tough park in Cincinnati.

Beede isn’t the rookie everyone is excited to see in this game though. Nick Senzel is one of the top prospects in baseball and makes his debut for the home team tonight. Not available on FanDuel, he costs $3.8K on DraftKings out of the second slot in the lineup. While the numbers aren’t impressive this season (77 wRC+, .114 ISO), he arrives as the seventh best prospect in baseball and a 60 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He put up a 149 wRC+ (.199 ISO) in 193 AAA PAs last season and hasn’t previously been below 147 since rookie ball. Senzel could be used alone for salary relief and as part of a Cincinnati stack along with Joey Votto (131 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jesse Winker (133 wRC+, .207 ISO) against a pitcher who’s had control issues throughout his career.

Two pitchers are making their 2017 debuts tonight, both rookies and for one, it's his major league debut. Tyler Beede replaces Johnny Cueto. A prospect of some note, fangraphs ranks him the second best prospect int he system and puts a 50 grade on him, though they admit he lacks any "dominant aspect" and he projects as a mid-rotation starter. His control is questionable and he struck out just 17.4% at AAA last season. The park is his ally against the Diamondbacks. Erik Skoglund had a 16.7 K-BB% in his age 24 season at AAA last year (100 innings), when he was the number eight prospect in a weak Kansas City system per Fangraphs. He had a 2.2 K-BB% in 18 major league innings and hasn’t thrown a competitive in season pitch anywhere yet this year. At lower levels of the minors, he’s been a marginal strikeout guy with good control. That might make him slightly useful at a very low cost at home against the Mariners tonight, but he’s unlikely to be a lineup difference maker.