Tyler Collins Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Most of the best cheap bats appear in top projected lineups
If players are looking for cheap bats tonight, and you may be with some expensive pitching out there, there's not a lot of good news because the least expensive, competent bats with decent lineup spots appear in the top projected offenses tonight. Consider that players stacking Diamondbacks against Jered Weaver are likely already going to have some Gregor Blanco ($3K DK, $2.4K FD) and David Peralta ($3.7K DK, $2.7K FD). Tyler Collins ($3.2K DK, $2.6 FD) and Alex Avila ($3.2K DK, $3K FD) are projected to be among the most popular bats of the night and have the weather to worry about too. Perhaps some RH Dodger bats may provide some salary relief when that lineup comes out, but daily fantasy players appear to have their work cut out for them in terms of staying within the salary cap.
Detroit bats becoming more popular with ownership projection update
Ownership projections have updated (as they do throughout the evening) and Detroit bats appear to be gaining in popularity, with Alex Avila (batting cleanup) and Tyler Collins (batting second) now projected to be among the most popular bats on the slate. Pitcher projections are now available as well. There's no surprise there with Chris Sale and Alex Wood likely to be in more lineups than any other pitcher. Guys with 30 to 40% strikeout rates are popular, but there are also competent arms like Luis Severino and Charlie Morton with strikeout upside, who may now go under-owned. Premium subscribers can find potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
Starters could be asked for more in Detroit after 13 inning, 24 run marathon with Orioles last night
While there are no clear studies concerning games that go 13 innings with 24 runs scored, we do know that teams sometimes suffer hangover effects after double-headers and there may be some leftover impact for the Tigers and Orioles in tonight's game. One could be starting pitchers being pushed a bit further, potentially favoring the Tigers with Michael Fulmer on the mound (at least seven innings in three of last four starts), but also at the plate if Ubaldo Jimenez is hung out to dry. While the Tigers are generally predominantly right-handed, they may stick a few LHBs in there tonight against Ubaldo's .385 wOBA allowed since last season. Alex Avila is almost assuredly going to catch tonight and would make for a great value play with a 130 wRC+ and .198 ISO vs RHP since last season, while Tyler Collins is a more average bat (95 wRC+, .146 ISO), but even cheaper. Victor Martinez (116 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since last season) has some great numbers against Jimenez (four HRs in 38 PAs, 94.2 mph aEV on eight Statcast recorded BBEs). Fifteen to twenty mph winds blowing in from RF could put a bit of a damper on things though. J.D Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler are all certainly in play as well with a wRC+ above 110 against RHP since last year for all four bats and Kinsler the only one below a .230 ISO.
Weeks, Collins offer above average bats in top half of lineups at very low costs
While there are potentially a number of value bats on DraftKings, if we're truly looking for cheap bargains, Rickie Weeks (152 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Tyler Collins (113 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are each in the top half of their lineup for $2.6K or less on either site. While most players may try to find the extra few hundred for Brian McCann (vs Andrew Cashner), players who don't mind Catchers batting lower in the order and need more savings could look towards Alex Avila (135 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2016) or Cameron Rupp (148 wRC+, .286 ISO vs LHP since 2016) for $3.1K or less on DK, $2.6K or less on FanDuel. Brandon Guyer (151 wRC+, .194 ISO vs LHP since 2016) bats sixth against a lefty (Daniel Norris), but costs less than $3K on either site. Not yet confirmed, Andrew Toles (125 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP career) could bat leadoff against Johnny Cueto for more than the minimum. If players are looking for a below average cheap one in the leadoff spot, Peter Bourjos (78 wRC+ vs LHP since 2016) is your man for just $2.7K on DraftKings.
Three LH Detroit bats are below $3K on either site against Pelfrey (LHBs .373 wOBA since 2015)
Unlike most of the week, Friday is not lacking in affordable bats all over the lineup, which is great considering the pitchers many will be paying up for. The top value spot is certainly in Detroit, where the Tigers are forced to play cheap LHBs against Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .373 wOBA since 2015). Ty Collins (108 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats 2nd, while Alex Avila (113 wRC+, .167 ISO) bats lower in the lineup, but Catcher is generally a position players are willing to go a bit further down for to save salary. Both, along with Jim Adduci (259 wRC+ last seven days) are all below $3K on either site. Matt Joyce (123 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is back in the two spot for the A's ($2.5K or less), while Jaff Decker leads off for barely the minimum. Darwin Barney is in the two spot for the Jays tonight and just above the minimum on either site. Joey Rickard (121 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP) costs the minimum on FD ($2.9K on DK) out of the leadoff spot against Sabathia. Players can also watch the Dodger lineup to see if Cody Bellinger is in the leadoff spot again ($3.1K DK, $2.3K FD) with massive power potential.
First base is a power house tonight, but consider LH Detroit bats as salary savers
If Eric Thames (214 wRC+, .439 ISO vs RHP) is in the lineup (hamstring), he may be the top bat on the board against Bartolo Colon (.323 wOBA, 33.2 Hard% vs RHBs since 2015), though First Base is a power house tonight. Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces Lance Lynn (LHBs .350 wOBA since 2015) and Trey Mancini (158 wRC+, .389 ISO vs LHP) may get a shot at C.C. Sabathia (RHBs .340 wOBA since 2015) on the cheap at Yankee Stadium. Paul Goldschmidt (176 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may be the most popular bat as part of an Arizona stack against rookie Kyle Freeland in Arizona, though RHBs haven't really been very proficient against this lefty so far (.309 wOBA, 27.6 Hard%). The Diamonbacks just have an easily stackable lineup against LHP at home (Yasmany Tomas 143 wRC+, .257 ISO career, A.J. Pollock 132 wRC+, .211 ISO since 2015) and even Chris Owings (114 wRC+, .178 ISO since last season) and Brandon Drury (203 wRC+ over the last week) to help save some salary. Where players might really save some money tonight is in Detroit, where Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .373 wOBA since 2015) starts for the White Sox and the Tigers are forced to play some lesser known LHBs due to injuries. Certainly consider Tyler Collins (108 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Alex Avila (113 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP since 2015) or even Jim Adduci if in the lineup tonight, especially in the top half. All three cost less than $3K on either site and have a wRC+ above 200 over the last seven days.
Manuel Margot (102 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP) among just a few potential salary savers at top of lineup tonight
With Clayton Kershaw on the mound and a Coors game on the slate, players are going to be looking for some cheap bats and on DraftKings, they're rightfully going to gravitate towards Mike Moustakas (132 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP since last season) for $3.2K in a great spot, leading off tonight. Jaff Decker has done nothing of merit with the bat (58 wRC+, .070 ISO vs RHP career), but is the rare minimum priced (or close to it) leadoff option tonight, facing a career reliever in JC Ramirez. Mitch Haniger (144 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP) is still under-priced on DraftKings ($3.4K), while Manuel Margot (102 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP) is just $2.6K on FanDuel, leading off in Arizona. Tyler Collins (95 wRC+, .149 ISO vs RHP since 2016) might be a league average bat for $2.6K or less on either site, batting second against Felix Hernandez. It's otherwise slim pickings when looking for cheap top of the lineup hitters that will offer you something at least close to a league average bat.
Kyle Gibson keeps the ball on the ground, but some lower cost Tiger bats could present value on FanDuel
Kyle Gibson has a league average SwStr% that only transitions into a 15.8 K%, but he does generally keep the ball on the ground about half the time vs both lefties and righties. While LHBs have hit him a bit better since last season (.339 wOBA), the Tigers have two RHBs that hammer same handed pitching in Martinez (144 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Cabrera (151 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015), both more viable options on FanDuel for $3.7K or less. Tyler Collins (103 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (86 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both punt options for $2.2K each on FanDuel as well.
Maybin OUT as Tigers try to do better against Ranaudo with top run projection for second straight night
The Tigers tanked on the juicy James Shields matchup last night, but get a second shot at a terrible RHP in Anthony Ranaudo tonight. Batters from either side have a .350+ wOBA and 33+ Hard% through 74.1 big league innings over parts of the last three seasons. Detroit is once again the top projected offense on the board (5.74) and while this is a lineup that's a bit costly up top, they nearly all project well here, but may have a bit more value on FanDuel where they're a bit cheaper across the board. Cabrera (156 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and J.D. Martinez (140 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are the top bats, though Justin Upton (115 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been coming on with a 197 wRC+ over the last week and still costs just $3.2K on FanDuel. Value seekers may want to look at Saltalamacchia (91 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who homered last night and Tyler Collins (103 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2015), replacing Maybin in the second spot.
Rick Porcello has a 2.40 ERA since the All-Star break, but just a .200 BABIP and 7.0 SwStr%
Since the break (six starts), Rick Porcello has held batters to a .200 BABIP, fueling a 2.40 ERA a run and a half below his HR neutral estimators (xFIP, SIERA). He has shown exceptional control (3.0 BB%), but with just a 7.0 SwStr%. It's very difficult to endorse paying $11.4K (or $9.5K on FanDuel) for the ninth lowest SwStr% since the break, especially in Detroit, even if they are a bit banged up. All of the big bats are still there and two of them hit RHP very well with a reduced price tag (between $3.5K and $4K) on DraftKings. Miguel Cabrera (144 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP this season) and J.D. Martinez (152 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this season) are both affordable candidates against an over-priced pitcher tonight. Tyler Collings (102 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP this season) costs near the minimum on either site.