Tyler Glasnow Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

There are three pitchers reaching $9.9K or more on both sites and one very clear choice for top arm on Monday. That would be Tyler Glasnow, who is only the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. Over his first three starts, Gasnow struck out 29 of 68 batters with three walks and no home runs. Over his next seven starts, he walked four batters three times and allowed multiple home runs four times. Glasnow seems to be back to dominating again, striking out 30 of his last 82 with five walks and one home run as he’s pushed his slider usage above 35% for the first three times. He carries the only strikeout rate above 30% on the board (36.1%). Even with a 91.9 mph EV and 9.4% Barrels/BBE, his ERA and all estimators remain below three. The White Sox have a 107 wRC+ and 12.2 K-BB% vs RHP, but Glasnow is the top talent on the board by a mile.

The second best pitcher on the board, and most expensive on FanDuel, is the man Glasnow is facing, Lance Lynn. Six of the nine batters in the projected Rays’ lineup have a strikeout rate above 26% vs RHP since 2020. The Rays also have a 109 wRC+ and 10.6 BB% vs RHP this year. Lynn has gone beyond six innings just three times this year, but twice in his last five starts. The 1.23 ERA is not sustainable (.213 BABIP, 90.9 LOB%, 7.6 HR/FB) and driving up his daily fantasy price, but there are no complaints about a 21.2 K-BB% with an average contact profile. His estimators are all below four with his FIP and xERA below three. The price tag is the issue here with an ERA two runs below estimators.

Sean Manaea has been pretty good overall, but also fairly erratic from start to start. He’s struck out more than six five times, but fewer than five five times as well. He has a 9.3 HR/FB (3.18 FIP) and 6.4% Barrels/BBE (3.77 xERA), though the 41.6 GB% and 89.4 mph EV aren’t any better than average. Estimators are all above his 3.09 ERA, but just his DRA (4.89 DRA) is above four. The Angels have a 110 wRC+ and 22 K% vs LHP and 147 wRC+ (10.9 K-BB%, 17.9 HR/FB) last seven days. If you’re paying up for pitching tonight, Glasnow is the clear choice. Lynn is fine for $9.9K on DraftKings, even if not a great bargain. Manaea is just too expensive in this spot.

Trevor Bauer and Tyler Glasnow are your two $10K+ pitchers on Wednesday night and there are some red flags in both starts. In the case of Glasnow, the issues are his own. He’s coming off his worst start of the season against the Blue Jays, striking out just two of 22 batters, but his issues extend further back despite continuing to pile up the strikeouts over the last month (32.5%, 16.4 SwStr%). He’s now allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts, has walked four in three of his last seven and is up to a 91.2 mph EV with 9.7% Barrels/BBE on the year. For the season, ERA and estimators are up around three. The upside remains, but the risk is increased. The new slider is no longer fooling everyone. The Royals have a 90 wRC+ vs RHP with an average 23.1 K%, but six of nine batters in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season.

Glasnow is probably the better value of the two and will likely command a much larger ownership percentage because Trevor Bauer is in Houston (110 wRC+, 18.7 K% vs RHP). has been everything the Dodgers hoped for, even if the 1.98 ERA is a bit below most estimators (.183 BABIP, 88.2 LOB%). Even with eight HRs, he still has just a 2.16 xERA. The one caution might be that his 12.9 SwStr% may not be able to continue supporting a 36.2 K% and that’s going to be tested tonight against a projected lineup where four of the first five batters are below a 16 K% vs RHP since 2020. This may be the one matchup in the league that makes Bauer a pure leverage play with just two high priced pitchers on the slate.

Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw each reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight and legitimate arguments can be made for all three, which may help balance out ownership. Glasnow is the most expensive of the three on DraftKings, but least on FanDuel. He has allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts, which have been evenly distributed and the Mets have power from both sides of the plate. He’s also walked four in three of his last five to push the walk rate to exactly 10%. The only real difference from last season at this point is an overall HR/FB reduction of nearly 10 points, which is a massive deal when you have a 39.5 K% (16.8 Swstr%). While the Mets’ lineup is missing a few key bats right now, they don’t strike out a ton. Glasnow is working deeper into games this year, averaging 24 batters per start.

Scherzer has gained some velocity last two times out and has been dominant in those starts. He’s struck out 23 of 56 batters with one walk and two runs allowed (both HRs) over 16.1 innings. Even the ground ball rate has been above 30% in each of his last three starts, though still just 28% on the year. Eight of 10 Barrels (9.8%) have left the yard, which drives his FIP (3.29) well above his xERA (2.68). The Diamondbacks are a below average lineup vs RHP, but again, without a ton of strikeouts. One inconspicuous factor that may be in his favor is that the roof is scheduled to be open in Arizona tonight and Statcast’s new Park Factors suggest the run environment actually declines in this situation in recent years. Scherzer is, by far, the most expensive FanDuel pitcher, but also maybe your best Quality Start bet.

Kershaw pitched his last game on just three days rest after being knocked out of his previous start after just nine batters at Wrigley. This limited him to just 71 pitches against the Angels, where he bounced back, striking out five of 17 without allowing a run. Over the last month, he’s up to a 30 K% and 17.2 SwStr% as his velocity has actually dropped slightly. That’s because he’s throwing his fastball a career low 35.3% this year. Nearly half his contact has been on the ground (48.7%) with an 88 mph EV that now profiles as better than league average. The result has been 4.9% Barrels/BBE. His ERA is a perfect match to his xERA at 2.62. Other non-FIP estimators are a bit above three. The Marlins do have some competent RH bats in the projected lineup, but also probably the most strikeouts of the opposing teams here. Six of eight are above a 22.5 K% vs LHP since 2019. The cheapest of the three on either site (Glasnow on FanDuel, Kershaw on DraftKings) may be your best values among the expensive arms, but it’s difficult to make an argument for or against any relative to the others with much certainty tonight.

Here are some of the factors daily fantasy players are facing in terms of their pitching selections on Monday night’s slate. Three teams are throwing bullpen games (Mets, Padres, Mariners). The Royals are debuting a rookie we have very little information on since there hasn’t been a minor league season since 2019, when he was still pitching in A ball. Shohei Ohtani was drilled in the right elbow on Sunday. He is still scheduled to pitch at this point in time, but even that’s unclear.

What else is lacking clarity tonight is the weather is several spots and with just one game starting at 7 pm ET tonight, that confusion could push beyond initial lock. Philadelphia, St Louis, Chicago and Colorado all have at least some element of Orange in the early day forecast.

That leaves very few games where we have both pitching and weather clarity. One of them is in Minnesota, where the struggling Kenta Maeda (seven HRs last two starts) takes on the Rangers, fronted by Dane Dunning, who has not been allowed to exceed 75 pitches in any of his five starts. We’ve also got Steven Matz in Oakland facing a lineup with plenty of RH power with Frankie Montas on the other side, facing a lineup with plenty of power. Despite the lack of upside in the opposing lineup (at least from a strikeout perspective), there's only one spot on the board for players to confidently land tonight and that likely drives Tyler Glasnow’s ownership through the roof. He’s piling up the whiffs (39.2 K%, 16.6 SwStr%) and the new slider he’s throwing 29.6% of the time gives opposing hitters a new look that may have helped with HR issues (he’s allowed just two this year). It’s not the greatest pitch (.318 xwOBA, 38 Whiff%), but it’s good enough and sets up a four-seamer with a 32.9 Whiff% and .259 xwOBA. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate and the only one who exceeds $10K on both sites, but would probably project as the top overall arm on the slate even if there were no weather or injury concerns. Any potential pivots are going to need further clarity later in the day.

Three pitchers on a 10 game slate reach the $9K or higher mark on both sites with Tyler Glasnow the only one who exceeds $10K on both sites. He was tagged for two HRs and five runs last time out, his second straight difficult outing in a row, as he previously walked four Yankees. Glasnow’s piling up the whiffs every time out (39.7 K%, 16 SwStr%) and we thought the new slider he’s throwing 27.6% of the time would give opposing hitters a new look that would help with his HR issues, but his both previous control and long ball problems have popped back up again most recently. The upside is still tremendous whenever he takes the mound, but facing patient teams with power, could be problematic. That does pretty seem to describe Oakland. Only one player in the projected lineup is below a .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019. That said, a few HRs might not be that big of a deal if he strikes out 10 or more.

Outside of his no-hitter and near perfect game, Carlos Rodon has walked eight of 46 batters with only four ground balls. The velocity increase is real though and he also struck out 17 of those 46 batters. Let’s not completely omit the no-hitter either. Things are looking up here, but some of those old control issues have reared their head. He’s also facing a projected lineup, which includes just three batters above a .160 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and six above a 23 K%.

Zack Greinke has allowed six of his 10 runs, three of his four HRs and three of his four walks in just one start…and against the Tigers of all teams. The strikeout rate is down to 17.2% with an 8.4 SwStr% and his 39.6 GB% is his lowest since 2007. An 85.5 LOB% is unsustainable as well, but the contact management has never been better. His four HRs have come with just three Barrels (2.9%) with an 85 mph EV and his best start of the season was against these Mariners two outings back where he had everything working and he still only struck out six of 27 batters. Another eight shutout innings would work though.

This is not an easy decision. Glasnow is probably your top overall arm, but comes with some risk and is likely to be the highest owned. The matchup may make Rodon the better value for $9.8K on DraftKings, but he’s also the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($11K). Greinke may be the leverage here, but we need him to be nearly perfect to pay off, while carrying the reduced strikeout rate. The best approach may to have an equal mix of all three in GPPs.

Tyler Glasnow was extremely sharp in his first start in Miami. He struck out six of 19 batters without a walk and only one hit allowed (no Barrels, 82.1 mph EV), while 61.5% of his contact was on the ground. He averaged 97.9 mph on his fastball. His second start was even sharper, striking out nine Red Sox with two walks and one run over six innings at Fenway. He still hasn’t allowed a single Barrel yet and his exit velocity is just 84.6 mph with half his contact on the ground. The velocity dipped slightly in his second start, but remained above 97 mph on average. Last year, Glasnow threw an 82 mph curveball 34.8% of the time without any sliders. This year, he’s throwing an 84 mph curveball just 10.3% of the time and an 88 mph slider 35% of the time. While the curveball still has a larger whiff rate (50% to 33%), the new pitch does have a wOBA and xwOBA under .200 so far. Perhaps the new look is making him less predictable and home run prone. Only enhancing Glasnow’s outlook is a matchup against the Rangers at home. In a negative run environment, he’ll face a projected lineup with five batters above a 27 K% against RHP since last season, with four batters below a .100 ISO and with five batters below a .300 wOBA vs RHP over that span as well. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA against Glasnow since 2019. Glasnow is one of three high end pitchers tonight and finds himself in the highest upside spot. Gerrit Cole will have to take on a contact prone and dangerous Blue Jays’ offense and while Zach Grienke has a great matchup against the Tigers, we can’t project him for the same strikeout upside as Glasnow.

Tyler Glasnow struck out a board high 38.2% of batters this season and at least eight in seven of his last eight starts. While a 9.2 BB% and 90.4 mph EV are drawbacks, the strikeout rate has been high enough to negate some of those issues. Finishing with a 4.08 ERA, he allowed as many Barrels as HRs (11), which strongly suggests HR regression. All of his non-FIP estimators were more than a half run below his actual results, including a 3.13 xERA that includes his Statcast contact profile. He continued that strikeout streak against the Blue Jays, whiffing eight more with two solo HRs the only damage against him. He faced the Yankees three times this season, struggling his first time out, but striking out 17 of the last 44 Yankees he faced with just one HR over 11.2 innings. While it’s a tough choice between he and Framber Valdez when considering tonight’s top overall arm, Glasnow is $400 less on FanDuel and strikeouts are king in Daily Fantasy.

Tyler Glasnow has a 37.4 K% that’s easily best on the board. He’s occasionally struggled with control (9.7 BB%), but has walked no more than one batter in three of his last four starts. He also has a bit of a contact problem (90.3 mph EV), but has allowed just eight Barrels with as many HRs. The exit velocity doesn’t matter as much when barely half the batters you face are making contact in fair territory. The Orioles have a 103 wRC+ vs RHP, but have been falling off (62 wRC+, 19.6 K-BB% last seven days). Less than half the projected lineup for the Orioles are above an 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against Glasnow since 2019. With Zach Plesac in the unfamiliar role of being the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel, Glasnow is a high upside alternative for $300 less.