Tyler Mahle Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A rare occurrence where the most expensive pitchers may have some competition lower down on the board for the top overall arm tonight. That’s because two quality pitchers are in excellent spots tonight. We’re talking about Tyler Mahle (at Brewers) and Zach Eflin (at Cubs). Over his last seven starts, Mahle has a 34.4 K% with fewer than seven strikeouts just once and no less than six. With the rest of his profile somewhat average, a 29.9 K% for the season has all of his estimators within one-third of a run of his 3.63 ERA. In fact, a 3.65 is his worst estimator. The Brewers are coming off a double header in New York yesterday and only one batter in the projected lineup (Omar Narvaez) is below a 24 K% vs RHP since last season.

Eflin has fewer than five strikeouts with a single digit SwStr% in three of his last four starts. We could optimistically say he’s faced the toughest offenses of the NL West over that span, but he also had his lowest single game average velocity of the season last time out. He’s walked just 13 batters all season, which has kept estimators below four (except for a 4.36 DRA) despite a marginal 22.3 K% for the season. The actual ERA (4.13) is a bit elevated, due to a .324 BABIP, which is ironically 50 points above what the Philadelphia defense has allowed despite the fact they’re one of the worst units in the league as measured by Statcast (-14 Runs Prevented). None of this is ideal. However, Eflin gets the Cubs (88 wRC+, 26.8 K% vs RHP) on a cool night with a double digit wind forecast to be blowing in from left field at Wrigley. The matchup may be everything here. Eflin costs just $7.5K on DraftKings, Mahle is a bit less than $9K on either site.

Tyler Mahle has allowed five HRs, three of them in his last start against the Cubs, two in his first, both at home. Understandable. On the road, in a much more power friendly park in Pittsburgh, we should be able to experience the upside from Mahle (32.8%) without a lot of the risk. Our caveat is that the 12.2 SwStr% suggests he may not be able to sustain that strikeout rate above 30%. His 9.9% Barrels/BBE still projects a 2.93 xERA, his best estimator and third best on the board today. Only his FIP is more than one-third of a run above his 3.23 ERA though.

The Pirates have just an 88 wRC+ (8.6 HR/FB) vs RHP with a 5.3 HR/FB at home and are now without Colin Moran as well as Ke’Bryan Hayes. Among batters projected to be in the lineup tonight, only three are above an 89 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and Bryan Reynolds tops the group with a .183 ISO vs RHP over that span. Over the last 30 days overall, half the lineup is below a 70 wRC+. Mahle is one of two pitchers exceeding $9K on DraftKings, but comes in just below that on FanDuel. No pitcher is averaging six innings per start and just two above five, so we may have to temper expectations on Quality Start points tonight, but despite averaging just 21 batters per game, Mahle could be efficient enough to get there tonight. From the opposite end, the Pirates have the lowest implied run line of the four games currently posted (3.36), but their bats are cheap, should you somehow need that tonight. Only Bryan Reynolds (120 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019) reaches either $4K on DK or $3K on FD tonight. A Cincinnati bullpen with a 5.91 ERA and 5.02 xFIP over the last 30 days and a defense at -8 runs prevented this year (Statcast) might be some motivation towards Pittsburgh bats as well.

Tyler Mahle has a career high 28.5 K%, but is coming of a start with just three Ks, allowing multiple HRs in each of his last two starts. Mahle can miss a few bats (career 22.5 K%), but generally struggles against LH power (89.4 mph career EV). On the surface, the Cubs certainly aren’t an ideal matchup (108 wRC+, 22.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but conditions may dictate some reconsideration. Winds are blowing in strongly at Wrigley tonight, which should reduce their power potential against Mahle, but enhance a 25.9 K% against RHP in this matchup. Backed by a potentially very negative run environment, Mahle now seems worth the potential upside for less than $8K on FanDuel tonight.

Tyler Mahle has a 5.34 ERA this year, but there are a few indicators that this number is inflated. Mahle also has a solid 4.06 xFIP / 4.22 SIERA, 16.7% K-BB, 46.5% GB rate and .320 xwOBA allowed. Mahle has been much better vs. righties over in his career with a .298 wOBA allowed and 17.5% K-BB, compared to a .391 wOBA allowed and 8.6% K-BB vs. lefties. Fortunately, he is set to face just 2 lefties in the Pirates lineup this afternoon. With their 3 best hitters out of the lineup (Bell, Marte, Reynolds), the Pirates have just 1 batter in their lineup with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .310 on the year. Mahle is very affordable with a $7.2k price tag on Draftkings and $6.5k tag on Fanduel, and projects to see pretty low ownership on this slate despite the great matchup. Mahle also gets a park upgrade going from Great American to PNC. The Pirates currently have a 4.16 implied total vs. Mahle and the Reds this afternoon.

Tyler Mahle will be called up from the minors to face the Cardinals and make his first MLB start since 7/19. Especially for GPPs, Mahle and his dirt cheap pricing is intriguing given that there are multiple high priced SP1s to pair him with on Draftkings. On the surface, Mahle seemed ineffective earlier in the year as he posted a 4.93 ERA and 1.58 HR/9 over 102 innings. However, Mahle is also the owner of a 3.82 xFIP, 4.05 SIERA, a 24.3% K rate and 6% BB rate, and 45.6% GB rate. He also allowed just a .315 xwOBA and 8% barrel rate, all going to show that his ERA is probably higher than deserved. Mahle does have a wide platoon split, as he has a 22.9% K-BB and .280 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB compared to a 13.1% K-BB and .353 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB this year. Fortunately for Mahle, the Cardinals have just two lefties in their starting lineup this afternoon. At a price of just $6.2k on Draftkings, Mahle is a very interesting SP2 play. He’s also a consideration on FanDuel at an even cheaper $5.9k. The Cardinals currently have a 4.73 implied total vs. Mahle and the Reds.

Tyler Mahle has a 4.82 ERA on the year, but a 3.82 xFIP, 4.03 SIERA, .319 xwOBA allowed, 24.3% K rate and 6% BB rate are all encouraging signs that he is due for some positive regression. Mahle will be facing the Cardinals at home tonight where he’s been a much better pitcher in his young career; he owns a .349 xwOBA allowed and 17.8% K rate on the road compared to a .299 xwOBA and 28.2% K rate at home. Mahle also has a wide platoon split with a .294 xwOBA vs. righties compared to a .364 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties. He projects to face only 4 lefties in the Cardinals’ lineup tonight, and those 4 lefties (Edman, Fowler, Wieters, Wong) have a combined .311 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, so they shouldn’t be too much of a threat. Overall, the Cardinals have a 88 wRC+ and 22.7% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Their offense has gone cold recently as they have a 2nd worst 83 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Mahle is no ace, but he is under $6.5k on both major sites in a decent matchup where he projects to be one of the better PTS/$ plays on the board tonight.

Tyler Mahle generates some strikeouts (24.4%) with too much hard contact in the air (89.9 mph aEV, 8.9% Barrels/BBE, 44.4 GB%, 19.7 HR/FB). The Brewers combine a lot of strikeouts (25.2%) with a lot of power (19.1 HR/FB) against RHP. This would seem to indicate that both sides are worthy of some daily fantasy attention on Monday. While Mahle owns just an 8.9 SwStr% and perhaps a barely sustainable 2.74 K/SwStr, Mike Minor (24.4 K% as well) is the only other pitcher on the board with more than three starts above a 20 K% tonight and he’s facing an offense that rarely strikes out (Angels 16.5 K% vs LHP) in Texas. Mahle costs $7.5K or less on either site. Contrarily, the Brewers are implied for five runs exactly as of this writing, which puts puts them in a tie for the third highest number on the board. To say Mahle has had significant issues with LHBs over the last calendar year would be an under-statement (.392 wOBA, .368 xwOBA). Yasmani Grandal (139 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Christian Yelich (.197 wRC+, .373 ISO), Mike Moustakas (114 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Eric Thames (119 wRC+, .255 ISO) are all prominent bats in this spot.

Tyler Mahle has sustained a 9.5 SwStr% over the last month (the same as his season rate) with a dip in his strikeout rate to 21.5% over this span, pulling his season K/SwStr below 2.7 and into a more acceptable range. Mahle has excellent control (5 BB%), but depends too much on called strikes and pitches up in the zone without missing enough bats. A resultant 90 mph aEV has generated a 20 HR/FB, averaging one per start. His major issue is with LHBs, whom have a .399 wOBA, 43.1 Hard% and 30.5 GB% over the last year against him. This is where the absence of Joey Gallo hurts, but the Rangers still have LH power in this lineup. In fact, among those in the projected lineup tonight, only Nomar Mazara (95 wRC+, .151 ISO) is below a .180 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Shin-Soo Choo (140 wRC+, .226 ISO) should be considered one of the stronger overall bats on this slate, while Ronald Guzman (117 wRC+, .226 ISO) is a somewhat sneaky home run threat. While the park in Cincinnati is an overall run environment downgrade for the Texas offense, it’s actually more generous in terms of power. Losing their DH, the Rangers sit right in the middle of the board at 4.3 implied runs, but LHBs are still plenty viable here. Incredibly, this will be just Mahle’s fourth home start of the season. His 20 HR/FB has come pitching mostly in power suppressing parks this year.