Tyler White Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Astros will face Mike Minor tonight, who has actually been a solid pitcher this year with a 2.54 ERA, 4.43 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA with a 15.5% K-BB. Minor is likely due for at least some regression though, and playing in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, the Astros still have a favorable 5.34 implied total. Once they chase Minor from the game, the Astros will get plate appearances versus a Rangers’ bullpen that has the 6th worst SIERA (4.51) in baseball. Despite a solid total, the Astros have good value options on both major sites tonight; they are available for $4.7k or less on Draftkings and $4.3k or less on Fanduel. Yordan Alvarez (.461 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jose Altuve (.441), George Springer (.440), Robinson Chirinos (.385), Alex Bregman (.369), Josh Reddick (.325), Michael Brantley (.316), Yuli Gurriel (.308) and Tyler White (.256) are all options in the projected order. Altuve stands out as the best value as he costs just $3.6k on both sites. George Springer will leadoff and is just $4.7k on Draftkings / $4.3k on Fanduel. Michael Brantley projects to bat 4th and is $4.3k on DK/ $3.8k on Fanduel. Further down the order, Josh Reddick is just $3.5k on DK / $2.9k on FD while Tyler White is $2.6k or less on both sites. Astros hitters will also have the benefit of a hitter-friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Mike Muchlinski.

The Astros are in Arlington tonight to take on the Rangers in an extremely friendly hitter’s park vs. a badly struggling pitcher. Drew Smyly has had a rough return to the MLB in 2019 with a horrendous 7.15 ERA, 5.56 BB/9, just a 25% GB rate and a 58.3% hard contact rate compared to just an 8.3% soft contact rate. Houston led the league last year with a 123 wRC+ vs. LHP last year and will have plenty of viable options in their lineup tonight. Jose Altuve (.388 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), George Springer (.367), Alex Bregman (.355), Carlos Correa (.337) and Michael Brantley (.308) figure to be the core of the order and should be worth their hefty prices. Tyler White had a .375 xwOBA in 72 PA vs. LHP last year and is a high-upside value option if he's in the lineup. The Astros have a mouth-watering 5.79 implied total tonight and will likely see high ownership across all contests.

James Paxton is not a pitcher one would recommend picking on and perhaps a full on Houston stack tonight is not a tremendous idea, but despite some fantastic peripherals (30.4 K%, 6.5 BB%), Paxton seemed to struggle a bit against the Orioles in both of his starts. The reason why? An inability to get them to chase pitches (55.8 Z-O-Swing%) and too much hard contact (58.6% 95+ mph EV) when it was made. While he gets a tremendous run environment upgrade here and should pitch well enough tonight, especially with Alex Bregman out of the lineup, a couple of things might be working in favor of the Astros’ bats here. First, the roof is expected to be open and second, home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez is extremely hitter friendly. While Paxton has actually exhibited a reverse platoon split in recent years (RHBs .269 wOBA last calendar year), the Astros have chosen to stack the lineup with right-handed bats. Both George Springer (144 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Altuve (120 wRC+, .139 ISO) are fairly affordable tonight. Tyler White (178 wRC+, .261 ISO) is another cheap bat, who hits the ball hard and also moves up a spot to sixth with the absence of Bergman tonight. One potential negative to consider is that the line has moved in the direction of New York, although the total has inched up half a run since opening. Paxton can still have a strong outing, while a few key bats put up some decent fantasy numbers.

While it’s quite obvious that the Astros are the top offense on tonight’s small slate, it’s probably still pertinent to point out a few reasons why. Mike Minor did hold RHBs to a .307 wOBA last season, but a 40.4 Hard% suggests that number could have easily been more than 30 points higher (.344 xwOBA). Overall, Minor had a board high 10.8% Barrels/BBE last season and has started this season off on the wrong foot with just a 7.9 SwStr% and 46.7 Hard-Soft% in his first start. Texas is easily the highest run scoring environment on the board and the predominantly right-handed lineup of the Astros has started off the season pummeling LHP for a 178 wRC+ so far. George Spring, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel and Tyler White have all exceeded a 140 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year.

It’s fair to assume that most Opening Day tournament lineups will avoid stacking against former Cy Young award winners. It’s also fair to assume that nearly all Opening Day tournament lineups will avoid stacking against a reigning Cy Young award winner. The Astros are in an intriguing spot against Rays ace Blake Snell today. The core of their lineup is priced up to reflect their talent despite the tough matchup. On the plus side, that will almost certainly guarantee low ownership of one of the MLB’s top offenses. Snell shut down left-handed hitters last season (.087 ISO, .186 wOBA) and fared well against righties (.131 ISO, .263 wOBA) but will be tasked with facing perhaps the best right-handed core in the game. Alex Bregman (.243 ISO, .393 wOBA) ate lefties for dinner last season and stands out as the top overall play in Houston’s lineup while George Springer (.161 ISO, .333 wOBA), Jose Altuve (.141 ISO, .378 wOBA) and Carlos Correa (.181 ISO, .309 wOBA) are all proven, All-Star caliber players. Tyler White (.245 ISO, .352 wOBA) grades out as a phenomenal value play ($2,500 on FD, $3,300 on DK) the bottom of the order based on his proficiency against southpaws, as does catcher Robinson Chirinos (.198 ISO, .335 wOBA) based on the positional scarcity and his price tag ($2,700 on FD, $3,000 on DK). Perhaps what’s most damning for Snell is that he threw his fastball at a 51.6% clip last season. Over the last three seasons, here’s what the aforementioned players have done against that particular pitch thrown by left-handers: Bregman (.268 ISO, .379 wOBA), Springer (.364 ISO, .478 wOBA), Altuve (.252 ISO, .397 wOBA), Correa (.152 ISO, .360 wOBA), White (.342 ISO, .443 wOBA), Chirinos (.235 ISO, .336 wOBA). Stacking up the Astros is certainly risky since Snell is coming off of a magical season and the contest will be played at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, but the numbers suggest that Houston has a solid shot at spoiling the reigning AL Cy Young winner’s season debut.

Corner positions are where DFS players usually get the most offense from their infielders, especially first base and today's slate may have a couple of potential value options at Fenway. Luke Voit (212 wRC+, .440 ISO) and Steve Pearce (158 wRC+, .255 ISO) have both punished LHP this year and both hover around the $4K price on DraftKings (just a bit below on FanDuel). Max Muncy (169 wRC+, .334 ISO) has been a surprise masher of RHP this season and has remained a house of fire this week. Jesus Aguilar, Freddie Freeman, Tyler White and Cody Bellinger all additionally have at least a 130 wRC+ and exceed .220 ISO against the handedness of the pitcher each faces tonight. Muncy is also third base eligible on DraftKings, but players would have to sacrifice rostering Justin Turner (142 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP). Alex Bregman (153 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Ramirez (158 wRC+, .315 ISO) are the top bats at that position, but both are facing great starting pitchers in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Justin Verlander held LHBs to a .251 wOBA this season. Statcast has him for an even more absurd .221 xwOBA against lefties.

Only three teams are above five implied runs tonight and the Astros are essentially tied for the second spot at 5.3. They get a huge park upgrade in Baltimore and face David Hess (batters from either side above a .350 wOBA) with one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him. Josh Reddick (81 wRC+, .113 ISO vs RHP) might have some value in this spot, as he bats second with George Springer still out. Top bats are Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .144 ISO), Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Tyler White (148 wRC+, .264 ISO).

The Astros have most of their key players in for a meaningless game with weather concerns in Baltimore. It is a sizable park upgrade against a pitcher allowing batters from either side of the plate a wOBA above .350 (David Hess), followed by one of the worst bullpens in the game. As a result, the Astros have a board high 5.28 implied run line that shouldn't really suffer much with Springer out of the lineup. Josh Reddick (81 wRC+, .113 ISO vs RHP) might have some value in this spot. Top bats are Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .144 ISO), Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Tyler White (148 wRC+, .264 ISO).

If the Astros played in a positive or even neutral run environment, they'd probably have an implied run line close to six for many of their home games. They play in one of the most negative, yet still find themselves at 4.6, which could end up a top six mark should the cross state affair run into weather issues, and are facing a pretty competent pitcher Andrew Heaney. It's just unfortunate for Heaney that he happens to be left-handed. Although he hasn't been terrible against LHPs (.322 wOBA), they do have a 40 Hard% and 37.9 GB% against him. The Astros have some overall great numbers against LHP, but it's really a more stars and scrubs approach considering this year's statistics. Alex Bregman (166 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) is now the bat that drives this lineup. Tyler White (181 wRC+. .309 ISO) is expanding his sample size ever day, but does have just a 71 wRC+ over the last week (26.7 Hard%). George Springer (131 wRC+, .191 ISO) is next best by both wRC+ and ISO. Jose Altuve (116 wRC+, .122 ISO) has remained productive, but not nearly the caliber of player he was last year.