Victor Martinez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A Jordon Zimmermann/James Shields matchup would appear to be a DFS dream on the offensive side except when you realize that the offenses are the Tigers and White Sox in 2018. To make matters worse, temperatures are expected to be near freezing with the potential for light snow and winds blowing in from right at around 10 mph. Also, Nick Delmonico and Welington Castillo are NOT in the lineup. While both allowed four runs in their initial starts of the season, Shields allowed one HR without striking out any of the 25 Royals he faced, while Zimmermann surprised by striking out eight of 24 Pirates. Each walked just one. Both of these offenses have healthy run projections above four. The worst of the splits, LHBs torched Shields last year for a .388 wOBA, While RHBs had just a .309 wOBA, the xwOBA was 23 points higher. Batters from either side had a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against Zimmermann last season. Neither pitcher had a ground ball rate above 41.3% or hard hit rate below 32% against batters from either side of the plate. Top bats against RHP since last season all belong to the White Sox: Yoan Moncada (123 wRC+, .220 ISO, 44.3 Hard%), Avisail Garcia (121 wRC+, .179 ISO), and Jose Abreu (128 wRC+, .242 ISO). Matt Davidson has just an 84 wRC+, but with a game best .254 ISO and 40.8 Hard%. For the Tigers, both Miguel Cabrera (81 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Victor Martinez (88 wRC+, .132 ISO) have struggled, but both have a hard hit rate above 40% against righties since last season. Keep in mind, everyone in Detroit seems to run higher hard hit rates. Jeimer Candelario (.138 ISO) and Mikie Mahtook (.155 ISO) share a team high 103 wRC+ vs RHP. Considering the weather and scope of the offenses, players could consider a fade, especially with Zimmermann's unexpected opening start competence, but weather is expected to play a factor in most spots this afternoon.

Victor Martinez has homered three times in 39 PAs against Danny Duffy with a 93.9 mph aEV on 12 BBEs recorded by Statcast. He has just a 93 wRC+ and .059 ISO vs LHP this year, but has come back to life a bit (121 wRC+, 40 Hard% last seven days). Though we don't have much exit velocity or Statcast information, both Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton have three HRs against Cole Hamels. Stanton has struck out 19 times in 52 PAs, but the hot and humid Texas air will make the ball carry and Hamels allowed three bombs in Baltimore last time out with just a 14% strikeout rate this year. Lance Lynn has seen his strikeout rate drop too (17.5% last 30 days) and Gerardo Parra has two HRs against him in 26 PAs with a 94.8 mph aEV on just six BBEs, but Parra also has four doubles and three triples against Lynn for a total of nine extra-base hits. Carrying on with the theme, Michael Fulmer has just a 13.9 K% over the last month. Eric Hosmer has just one HR and no other extra-base hits in 13 PAs, but a 100.5 mph aEV. Even ground balls can be difficult to turn into outs at that speed.

Four of the Tigers' first five batters have ISOs of .196 or better according to PlateIQ. It's a tough order to get through, particularly for pitchers that don't log a lot of strikeouts, as that's the primary weakness of Detroit's sluggers - three of those four hitters have K-rates of at least 26.0%. Matt Cain has a 13.3% K% against RHB, 12.6% against LHB and he's posted an abysmal 4.7% SwStr% this year. As a result, he has a slate-high 88.9% Contact%, which means the meat of the Tigers' order will be very dangerous this afternoon. When these guys make contact, it's hard. Alex Avila leads the way with a monster 62.0% Hard% against RHP this season, J.D. Martinez is right up there with a 51.0% Hard%, and Justin Upton (42.9%) and Miguel Cabrera (45.9%) have some excellent rates as well. Then there's Ian Kinsler (36.8%), Nick Castellanos (48.3%), Mikie Mahtook (39.6%), and Victor Martinez (43.9%). Although Cain doesn't give up a ton of hard contact - 32.1% against RHB (17.3% Soft%), 33.6% against LHB (15.3% Soft%) - with his pitches expected to find Detroit's bats so often, their high total makes a lot of sense. Plus, Cain has posted a .368 wOBA vs. LHB and .358 vs. RHB in 2017 and has a 5.46 SIERA - the Tigers are shaping up as a solid stack.

Both numbers represent career-highs for Kennedy, who's facing a dangerous Detroit offense tonight. If the Tigers' projected lineup holds, they'll offer six batters who have Hard% of at least 42.7% vs RHP this year, three of whom have FB% of 44,7% or higher - J.D. Martinez (50.0% Hard%, 44,7% FB%, .358 ISO, .394 wOBA), Alex Avila (63.6% Hard%, 47.3% FB%, .318 ISO, .467 wOBA), Justin Upton (42.7% Hard%, 47.2% FB%, .221 ISO, .334 wOBA), Miguel Cabrera (47.2% Hard%, 31.5% FB%, .169 ISO, .317 wOBA), Nick Castellanos (46.0% Hard%, 32.4% FB%, .124 ISO, .276 wOBA), Victor Martinez (45.8% Hard%, 37.6% FB%, .116 ISO, .294 wOBA). Their strengths line up well with Kennedy's weaknesses. Despite being a righty, Kennedy has fared worse against RHB this season, allowing a .243 ISO, 34.6% Hard%, and 51.9% FB%. His wOBA is currently .293 after facing 79 batters, but it should rise considering his peripherals and his low .149 BABIP. LHB have only posted a .132 ISO against him, however, he's allowing a 38.5% hard contact rate and a 47.7% FB% with a .226 BABIP. Kennedy has the fifth-highest SIERA on the slate (4.84) and the highest BB% (11.5%). Despite the favorable matchup - Detroit's projected run total of 4.35 is ninth tonight, which means they could potentially sneak by with lower ownership than they deserve. There are some weather concerns here as the game is currently considered YELLOW; it'll be important to take a look at the afternoon weather update.

Jason Hammel did look decent last time out in Yankee Stadium of all places, he’s allowed seven HRs in his last five starts and did not strike out a single Yankee in Kansas City two starts back. He’s turned into more of an extreme fly ball pitcher this year (43%), which is fine in this large park, but it is not a negative overall run environment. The Tigers have been surprisingly below average against RHP (96 wRC+, 23.8 K%), but do have an impressive 10.3 BB% and 26.3 Hard% against them and have had some major players in and out of the lineup this year due to nagging injuries. Tonight, they're minus just Ian Kinsler. While LHBs have a higher wOBA (.336 to .318) against Hammel since last season, batters from both sides have made hard contact on 32% of batted balls. Additionally, his 88.7 mph aEV is one of the highest marks on the slate tonight. J.D. Martinez (142 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is expensive, but may be the top bat in the Detroit lineup at this point. Miguel Cabrera (150 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains viable at one of the few strong positions on the slate. Alex Avila (141 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since last season) has the highest rate of contact above 95 mph (63.2%) in the league this year, but Andrew Romine (81 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) is the only batter in the lineup with a wRC+ above 90 (131) over the last week among the first eight batters in the lineup tonight, though all three of the previously mentioned Tigers have a hard hit rate above 40% in that span, along with Victor Martinez and Justin Upton.

Victor Martinez has a BvP leading four HRs against Ubaldo Jimenez and while many of their 38 matchups took place prior to Statcast, he still has an excellent 94.2 mph aEV on eight recorded BBEs. J.D. Martinez also has eight recorded BBEs against Jimenez with an impressive 98.3 mph aEV and two HRs. Mike Trout has three HRs against Miguel Gonzalez. Almost all of their 19 matchups occurred before Statcast (two BBEs), players can likely feel confident in this hitter's abilities.

While there are no clear studies concerning games that go 13 innings with 24 runs scored, we do know that teams sometimes suffer hangover effects after double-headers and there may be some leftover impact for the Tigers and Orioles in tonight's game. One could be starting pitchers being pushed a bit further, potentially favoring the Tigers with Michael Fulmer on the mound (at least seven innings in three of last four starts), but also at the plate if Ubaldo Jimenez is hung out to dry. While the Tigers are generally predominantly right-handed, they may stick a few LHBs in there tonight against Ubaldo's .385 wOBA allowed since last season. Alex Avila is almost assuredly going to catch tonight and would make for a great value play with a 130 wRC+ and .198 ISO vs RHP since last season, while Tyler Collins is a more average bat (95 wRC+, .146 ISO), but even cheaper. Victor Martinez (116 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since last season) has some great numbers against Jimenez (four HRs in 38 PAs, 94.2 mph aEV on eight Statcast recorded BBEs). Fifteen to twenty mph winds blowing in from RF could put a bit of a damper on things though. J.D Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler are all certainly in play as well with a wRC+ above 110 against RHP since last year for all four bats and Kinsler the only one below a .230 ISO.

Rays SP Erasmo Ramirez will be making a spot start today after throwing five times out of the bullpen this season (never topping 46 pitches). He'll likely only pitch five innings tops putting the Tigers offense in a prime spot to get some early damage. Daniel Norris of the Tigers is an intriguing SP option and probably ranks third behind Chris Sale and Lance McCullers of the eight taking the mound this afternoon. He's an above average strikeout pitcher facing a Tampa lineup prone to strike out. For the Tigers, Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera are elite options with Ian Kinsler, Tyler Collins, and Alex Avila secondary options. Veteran Victor Martinez is getting the day off. Evan Longoria brings a .200 ISO against LHP and is in play against Norris today. Steven Souza and Rickie Weeks are also viable at the top of the Tampa order.

The Indians are running out of starting pitchers and are bringing Zach McAllister out of the bullpen for tonight’s start against the Tigers. He hasn’t pitched more than two innings in any game this season, so we should assume a short outing, followed by a parade of relievers. The Indians are still fighting for home field in the playoffs, so they would certainly prefer to win this game, but their focus has to be saving whatever pitching they can for the playoffs, so I don’t expect that we’ll see all of the best bullpen arms in this situation. It’s unfortunately not very helpful to break down the individual matchups with no idea who they’ll be facing or for how long, so our best targets are the top hitters for Detroit, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler, followed by Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton.