Wade LeBlanc Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

There are a few types of pitchers that can survive Coors field, but Eric Lauer certainly isn’t one of them. Though Lauer does have a respectable GB rate at 43.5%, it won’t be enough to overcome the fact that he has just a 19% K rate and putrid 6.5% SwStr along with a 41.5% hard contact on the year. David Dahl (.418 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Ian Desmond (.403), Nolan Arenado (.365), Charlie Blackmon (.360), Chris Iannetta (.321), Trevor Story (.307) and Brendan Rodgers (.202) are all good options in the Rockies’ projected order. Rodgers has had a slow start but had a 158 wRC+ in AAA this year and is a bargain on Draftkings at just $3.7k. Desmond is also very affordable at just $4.3k. Charlie Blackmon has been the Rockies hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .466 xwOBA, followed by Chris Iannetta with a .426 mark. The Rockies have a healthy 6.21 implied line heading into their matchup with the Padres tonight.

Wade Leblanc was not a terrible pitcher last year with a 3.72 ERA / 4.47 xFIP despite averaging just 86.3 MPH on his fastball. He’s off to a tougher start in 2019, although he has just 16 IP he has a 5.59 xFIP and a .368 xwOBA allowed so far with an ugly 92 aEV and 44.1% FB rate. Leblanc has been much worse vs. RHB since 2018 (.294 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .338 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB) and the Twins lineup projects to have just 1 lefty compared to 8 righties tonight. CJ Cron (.360 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2017), Jonathan Schoop (.335), Willians Astudillo (.318), Miguel Sano (.312), Marwin Gonzalez (.302) and Jorge Polanco (.301) are all right-handed options in the Twins’ lineup. Polanco is enjoying a breakout year and has posted a .382 xwOBA so far in 2019. CJ Cron has been on fire over the past 10 days with a .500 xwOBA. Ehire Adrianza (.396), Marwin Gonzalez (.396) and Jorge Polanco (.373) have also seen the ball well over the past 10 days. Since 2018, Gonzalez, Astudillo, Schoop and Cron all have an xwOBA > .400 vs. fastballs that are slower than 90 MPH (Leblanc’s average FB velo is 85). The Twins have a 4.73 implied line vs. Leblanc and the Twins Saturday.

While there are some expensive pitchers in great spots tonight, finding value among the mid-tier and lower priced pitchers tonight might be a bit more difficult. Wade LeBlanc (19.4 K%, 4.33 SIERA, .333 xwOBA) has a 4.82 SIERA to go with his 1.91 ERA over the last month, but also a .311 xwOBA that's lower than his season mark. He's in a great park in Seattle against the Rangers (82 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+ vs LHP) for a cost around $7K. Tyler Glasnow (28.7 K%, 3.60 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) has cooled a bit over the last month (21.1 K%, .347 xwOBA) He's pitched in some tough parks against some tough offenses in that span though and actually faces Toronto for the third time in five starts, but the first at home. After being bludgeoned for seven runs in less than an inning the first time, he threw a quality start in Toronto last time out. There is a $1.8K gap in his price tag from DraftKings to FanDuel. Jose Urena (18.6 K%, 4.30 SIERA, .323 xwOBA) moves from one extremely negative run environment to another. The Mets are a league average offense against RHP, but have just an 87 wRC+ and 9.8 HR/FB at home. Urena costs less than $8K.

Wade LeBlanc continues to provide quality starts to the Mariners and finds himself in one of the few parks that may be an upgrade as far as run environment in concerned, but the team that resides in it offers six batters above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP this season. The Astros have a 4.82 implied run line that's good enough for fourth best on the board tonight. LeBlanc doesn't have much of a split, but has actually been better vs RHBs this season (.297 wOBA). At the very least though, Alex Bregman (169 wRC+, .265 ISO vs LHP this season) is in the conversation against any southpaw, as expensive as he is. George Springer (135 wRC+, .195 ISO) should have some value at the top of the lineup as well.

Mid and low priced pitchers tonight offer some interesting DFS options, some whom players may have completely bypassed and been right to do so only a month or so ago. Trevor Richards (23.6 K%, 4.34 SIERA, .339 xwOBA) has a 27.5 K% over the last month and pitches in a great park against an offense with a 94 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs RHP. The Phillies also have a 60 wRC+ and 23.6 K-BB% with a -5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Richards costs $6.6K on FanDuel. Jason Vargas (19.4 K%, 4.52 SIERA, .346 xwOBA) has to face the Dodgers, whose 93 wRC+ vs LHP this season is not an accurate representation of the current lineup. However, they have a 26.8 K% over the last week and Vargas gets to face them in an extremely negative run environment at a low cost, having struck out 14 of his last 43 batters over 11.1 innings (1 ER) against the Nationals and Cubs. Joe Musgrove (19.5 K%, 4.07 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has completed seven innings in eight of 16 starts and faces an average Reds' offense at home. Wade LeBlanc (19.6 K%, 4.79 SIERA, .321 xwOBA) is still flying well below his estimators, but his contact profile seems to suggest there's something to that and he gets to hose the Orioles (77 wRC+ vs LHP). Alex Cobb (15.6 K%, 4.55 SIERA, .350 xwOBA) had a streak of six straight starts with at least six innings snapped in his last start. He has a 2.79 ERA with league average estimators since the All-Star break and still costs less than $6K on DraftKings. Joey Lucchesi (25.7 K%, 3.74 SIERA, .326 xwOBA) has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts and is likely to be an under-valued arm in Arizona for $8K or less. Jake Arrieta (17.9 K%, 4.36 SIERA, .322 xwOBA) is in a great park in Miami.

The run line has been rising for the Texas Rangers this afternoon. Now up to 5.59, very close to the top of the board with only a couple of teams barely above them. Wade LeBlanc has done a nice job for the Mariners this year, but by xwOBA, batters from either side are within six points of a .350 mark against him since last season, despite RHBs having just a .293 wOBA against him over that span. The most positive run environment outside of Coors is a massive park downgrade for him and the Rangers have a team 141 wRC+, 12.4 BB% and 21.2 HR/FB over the last week all top the board. It's hard to find a poor play in this lineup, at least among the first seven or eight batters. Among those with at least 30 PAs against LHP over the last calendar year, only Rougned Odor (79 wRC+, .179 ISO) is below a 100 wRC+ and he has a 239 wRC+ over the last week. Robinson Chirinos (181 wRC+, .306 ISO) is a nice bat to have in the sixth spot. Adrian Beltre (157 wRC+, .183 ISO) can still do damage against LHP and is the second cheapest bat in the lineup on DK ($4K). As many Texas bats as you can afford is probably the right number to roster tonight.

We'll have to do some projecting on late afternoon lineups not yet released, but hard hitting Oakland lineup (4.27 implied runs) could do some damage against a ground ball machine, yet hard contact prone Marcus Stroman (89.4 mph aEV). While RHBs have a .323 wOBA that's 19 points better than LHBs against Stroman since last year, xwOBA reverses that, giving LHBs (.333) a 17 point advantage. Nick Martine has a 160 wRC+ and .167 ISO vs RHP so far, but Matt Chapman (125 wRC+, .223 ISO), Jed Lowrie (133 wRC+, .202 ISO), Khris Davis (146 wRC+, .308 ISO) and Matt Olson (144 wRC+, .314 ISO) have all been very dangerous against RHP over the last calendar year. In the game in Seattle, Alex Bregman (180 wRC+, .316 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) needs to be mentioned despite Wade LeBlanc's reveres split (RHBs .280 wOBA since 2017), which xwOBA doesn't believe anyway (.333). Tyler White (199 wRC+, .385 ISO) is obviously dealing with a much smaller sample size, but is cheap and could improve his lineup spot due to injuries.

Pitching from the late afternoon games is available on the DraftKings main afternoon slate and all four arms could be of nearly equal interest in negative run environments all separated by no more than $1.1K in price. Marcus Stroman allows a lot of hard contact (89.4 mph aEV), healthy or not, but at his best, he will keep most of it on the ground (62 GB%) and generate enough strikeouts (18%). That's a bit dangerous against an Oakland offense with a split high 23.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but he's an affordable arm in a favorable park, who has gotten at last two outs in the seventh in four of his last six starts. Dallas Keuchel is similar in the ground ball respect (54.5%), but while both that and his 17.9 K% are both decreased this year, he differs from Stroman mostly by contact authority. He had a -7.9 Hard-Soft% in July. The main difficulty in his matchup in Seattle is a 20.9 K% vs LHP for the home team. Sean Manaea has a respectable 3.77 ERA in July, but with just a 13.9 K%. He's somehow done that with a double digit SwStr% in each of his last four starts, which barely seems possible. The Blue Jays get a park down grade and have just a 91 wRC+ vs LHP. The Wade LeBlanc revival was thought to be over a couple of times, but he's allowed just four runs with 16 strikeouts over his last two starts (13.1 IP). He has a reverse split against a predominantly RH Houston lineup that's still without two of their top bats. His 19.7 K% is highest of the four. This banged up Houston offense has a 59 wRC+ and 15.7 K-BB% over the last seven days.