Yu Darvish Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Though he only struck out four of 28 batters, Yu Darvish shut the Mets down over seven innings (six hits, one run) in the Wild Card series. He followed up by striking out seven of 23 Dodgers, but with three runs over five innings against the Dodgers. Darvish allowed 22 home runs during the regular season (771 BF), but already four this post-season. He failed to go at least six innings just twice this year, once in his second start and again early in the season by a single out. The second half strikeout rate (28.8%) was much higher than the first (23%). He did allow 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but with the increasing strikeout rate and 4.8 BB%, it wasn’t too big a problem. The San Diego defense is the best on the board today (25 Runs Prevented was second best in the league). Every pitcher that Darvish threw this year (and there were several of them) grade better than average by Statcast. The one he threw most frequently was the cutter (35.3%, -0.6 RV/100, 25.6 Whiff%) was one of only two pitches (curveball being the other) that the Phillies were below average against in the second half (-0.56 wFC/C). Two caveats being that the it wasn’t a very large sample for the Phillies and that Darvish’s cutter had both a wOBA and xwOBA against above .350. Four of nine in the projected Phillies’ lineup have at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year, via PlateIQ, but none of the other five reach 20%. The top four all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP this year, though Brandon Marsh is the only bottom half batter exceeding those marks. Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on either site (tied on DraftKIngs). He is also the top projected arm and value on either site.

The Phillies have a 3.17 team run total that’s second from the bottom today, while RHBs (.284 wOBA, .312 xwOBA) were a bit better than LHBs (.239 wOBA, .277 xwOBA) against Darvish this season. The four guys exceeding a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO for the Phillies are all top 10 projected bats tonight: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins in that order. For less than $3K, Marsh (105 wRC+, .159 ISO) is a top 10 projected value on either site. He’s joined on FanDuel by a $2.7K Nick Castellanos (92 wRC+, .139 ISO).

One pitcher reaches the $10K price point tonight on a full slate and Trevor Rogers costs exactly that much on both sites. The leading Rookie of the Year candidate has a 29.8 K% with a 3.76 DRA his only estimator above three and a half. He’s in a tough spot tonight, as the Cardinals have a 120 wRC+ and 11.6 K-BB% vs LHP. Julio Urias is the second most expensive pitcher at $9.6K on either site. Both his strikeout (27.6%) and walk rates (3.6%) are career bests, which is allowing him to go deeper in games without really increasing his pitch count. He’s gone beyond 90 pitches just twice, but has seven quality starts. He also continues to be a strong contact manager. His 86.8 mph EV is actually above his career average (86.1). The Phillies have a 102 wRC+ and 14.7 HR/FB vs LHP, but offer a bit more upside with a 27.6 K% against southpaws as well. However, tonight’s particular projected lineup includes just one of seven batters with more than six PAs against LHP since last year and a strikeout rate above 25%.

A date with Coors has dropped Yu Darvish’s cost below $9.5K on either site, but with the highest strikeout rate on the board (29.9%) and facing an offense with just a 68 wRC+ and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP, the park is not enough of an obstacle to keep Darvish in consideration for tonight’s top overall arm on this slate. Four of eight projected Colorado starters exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020. These three appear to run very closely with Rogers and Urias having tougher matchups in favorable parks, but Darvish having an extremely favorable matchup in the worst park. The lowest price tag may make Darvish the best value here.

Members of Thursday night’s eight game slate $10K club include Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn, who both reach $11K on FanDuel and Taijuan Walker on DraftKings. Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on either site and the only one who reaches $10K on both. Walker returned from a short IL stint with a jump back up in velocity, after he had dropped a bit in his previous few starts, and struck out eight of the 16 Braves he faced with a single walk. After April control issues, he’s walked just five of his last 102 batters. If he sustains the velocity and control, the Mets have at least a middle of the rotation arm on their hands, rather than a bottom one. While Walker has just a 38.7 GB%, he has a 19 IFFB%. That all said, five of eight projected batters for the Padres have a 16 K% or lower vs RHP since last season. The cost is certainly too high and unwarranted in this case. He might be viable for just $8K on FanDuel and has four Quality Starts in nine attempts this year.

Lynn has a strong matchup against the Tigers (89 wRC+, 27 K% vs RHP). He was pulled after 82 pitches against the Orioles with just three hits, no runs and seven strikeouts because they are starting him on three days rest yesterday, but now he’ll be on full rest with the layoff. The stuff appears to be getting back to normal with a 24.3 K% over the last month and 26.9% on the season, but he does have the lowest ground ball rate of his career (32.8%). A 1.37 ERA is the product of a .222 BABIP, 87.8 LOB% and 6.3 HR/FB. The contact profile is strong (2.58 xERA), but other non-FIP estimators are above three and a half. This is a strong spot for a solid pitcher, but a lot of Lynn’s value in recent years has been in his hefty workload. Since returning from an April IL stint, he’d surpassed 100 pitches in three straight starts prior to his last time out, but has recorded sixth inning outs in just four of nine starts this year. An $11K price tag on FanDuel may not leave much room for excess value. $9.7K on DraftKings is a better value.

Darvish is coming off his worst start of the season as the Astros tagged him for five runs in five innings. Although he has a 24 K-BB%, we have to recognize that his 12 SwStr% is his lowest since 2018 and third lowest mark of his career behind a sustained velocity drop of more than a mile per hour from last year. However, that’s still an above average SwStr% and his contact management has never been better (86.7 mph EV, 4.9% Barrels/BBE), which it needs to be with a 31.3 GB% that’s 10 points below his career average and the reason why his xFIP is just under four. Additional estimators are all below three and a half though. Additional negatives include the Mets’ board high team 140 wRC+ over the last week (19.8 K%) as they begin to get healthier and a significant weather boost per Weather Edge that turns Petco into a positive run environment tonight. While none of this really makes Darvish a poor play tonight, it may be enough ammunition to consider going under-weight on his ownership projection, which should be fairly enormous when updated later today. Darvish and Lynn should be considered your top overall pitchers on Thursday night, even if they may not be the best values.

Yu Darvish tops the board with a 31.3 K% and has completed six innings in 11 straight starts Luckily, only five of his 12 Barrels have left the yard (he’s made a few starts with the wind blowing in at Wrigley), but even his worst estimators (3.26 DRA) put his ERA right around three. The Marlins had just an 89 wRC+, 25.1 K% and 11.4 HR/FB vs RHP, as they have very little LH power and do most of their damage against LHP. In fact, they have very little power at all, as only three batters in a projected lineup that includes just two LHBs are above a .165 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Meanwhile, RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA below .260 against Darvish since last season. The potential absence or limitation of Starling Marte further enhances Darvish’s prospects today. The most expensive pitcher on the board ($11K on FanDuel) is the top pitcher with the top matchup.

Yu Darvish has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) over his last 19 innings, but has still struck out at least seven in eight straight starts, walking more than two just once this year. That gives him a board topping 27.6 K-BB% that even a 27.7 LD% can’t spoil. While a 2.23 FIP matches his 2.22 ERA, additional estimators range as high as a 3.37 DRA, which is still quite impressive. It may account quality of strength of opposing offenses, while also pitching in favorable Wrigley weather a few times. His first four starts were against the Brewers, Royals and Pirates, but he hasn’t faced a non-playoff contender since then. The White Sox have a dangerous offense (107 wRC+, 18.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but this spot is not without upside (White Sox 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP, 31.9 K% last seven days). Only four batters in the projected lineup are above a 99 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Another positive are Darvish’s splits. The White Sox are predominantly a right-handed lineup and batters from that side have just a .260 wOBA against Darvish since 2019. Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $11.2K. He’s $400 more than Carlos Carrasco, who looks great in a fantastic matchup against the Pirates, but Darvish has the higher strikeout rate by 3.6 points in a more dangerous matchup (which could lower his ownership rate), but one with just as much upside.