Yusei Kikuchi Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Yusei Kikuchi will start for the Blue Jays on Wednesday.

Game Note: Rogers Centre (TOR) will open roof Sunday.

Ten of Yusei Kikuchi’s 14 home runs and 16 of his 28 barrels (16.8%) have been surrendered over his last six starts, over which he has a 37.5 GB% and 95.1 mph EV. He’s also struck out 30 of the 101 batters hes’ faced over this span (14.7 SwStr%), but with 12 walks. The strikeouts aren’t doing you much good, as he’s only completed six innings once in this span and three times all season. As one might expect, his contact inclusive estimators are much higher than his 4.74 ERA this year, while contact neutral ones are a half run lower. This sounds like the beginning of a post where we’re considering which pitchers we want to attack, but it’s not. Yusei Kikuchi is actually essentially tied for the top projection on the board (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day) and costing less than $8K on either site, he’s also the runaway top projected point per dollar value. Part of it is the dismal state of pitching on this slate, but part of it is also the matchup and environment. Oakland is a substantial park upgrade and power suppressor, even if the weather is slightly more hitter friendly than usual. The A’s have an 84 wRC+, 23 K% and 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP this year. They have just a 70 wRC+ and 5.3 HR/FB at home. Embrace the risk and check in on Kikuchi’s ownership projections later in the day.

Kikuchi (4.11) is the only pitcher currently reaching a four P/$ projection on FanDuel tonight, although the top 11 projected values all cost less than $8.5K. You wouldn’t want to use most of them on a single pitcher site however. Alex Wood has allowed 13 runs (three home runs) over his last 11 innings with just a 42.9 GB% and 90.6 mph EV over that span. His velocity has been steadily dropping (though it did bump up in his last start), as he’s down to a 22.5 K% on the season. On positive notes, he’s still allowed just 13 barrels (5.9%) with a 6.3 BB% with estimators all well below a 5.03 ERA (.340 BABIP, 66.8 LOB%, 13.6 HR/FB). In fact, a 4.22 DRA is the only one above four, but watching his velocity going forward will be key. This is another spot where we like the matchup. The Diamondbacks have an 85 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs LHP. Wood costs exactly $8K on FanDuel, but projects just outside the top five values for $9.2K on DraftKings.

The Dodgers seem to want to cap Mitch White at 80 innings, so while the rate stats have been fine this year (15.2 K-BB%), the limited workload increases the risk/reward ratio of a 9.6% barrel rate and 90.2 mph EV. Only a 4.05 DRA is more than one-tenth of a run removed from his 3.93 ERA. Average pitcher on a capped workload might be fine in a neutral environment against a poor offense against RHP (81 wRC+), but the Rockies don’t strike out much (21.1% vs RHP). White is a top three projected value on either site for $7.4K, which, again, says more about the state of pitching on this slate than anything else.

The only drawback to rostering Jeffrey Springs had been his workload, but he’s now been extended beyond 90 pitches in three of his last four starts, including more than 100 last time out. He has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last six starts on nine barrels (10%), but also has a 23.9 K-BB% over that span. One of the few pitchers we’ve seen move from the pen to the rotation without losing anything, a 3.53 DRA is two-tenths of a run higher than any of his other estimators, though all are more than three-quarters of a run above his 2.25 ERA (92.2 LOB%). Springs costs $9.7K on DraftKings, but $8.4K on FanDuel. Yet, he projects as just tonight’s seventh best arm and a marginal value. The reason is because he’s facing a good offense (board topping 120 wRC+ vs LHP with a 21 K%) in a tough park (Fenway) under difficult conditions (wind blowing out with some rain concerns).

One last pitcher, who probably deserves some words on a slate like this is Kyle Hendricks. He does not project particularly well at all, but has struck out 25 of his last 93 batters with at least six in each of his last three starts. He had previously exceeded three strikeouts in just one of seven starts. With this strikeout bump, he has an ERA and estimators below four over this span and perhaps it is real with a 15+ SwStr% in three of the four starts. Simply, fewer four-seam fastballs with more sinkers and changeups appears to be the recipe. Skepticism is normal and may even be correct. Hendricks still has season estimators all within one-third of a run of his 4.76 ERA, but we have to consider that this is a different pitcher now, completing just his third and fourth Quality Starts of the season last two times out. And on this slate, with a reasonable matchup (Brewers 107 wRC+, 23.4 K%) in a somewhat neutral park, he may be worth considering for $7.6K on DraftKings, though his $9.6K FanDuel cost may be too high.

The Detroit Tigers have a 64 wRC+, 32 K% and 5.2 HR/FB vs LHP. The problem is that Sam Hentges has done nothing to prove that he merits any consideration even in this high upside spot with just a 19.7 K% (8.2 SwStr%), walking nine of 76 batters with a 91.4 mph EV and five of eight Barrels (15.4%) leaving the yard. As the lowest priced pitcher on the board, DraftKings players can hope and pair him with a higher priced pitcher, but the upside appears limited. Another low priced pitcher, Austin Gomber, gets a significant park upgrade when he travels to face the Mets. With the majority of the starting lineup, including Pete Alonso, on the IL this is a much better spot that one would normally imagine for him. Gomber has allowed just two runs over his last 11.1 innings, striking out 13 of 46 Padres, while estimators believe he’s a bit better than his 4.96 ERA (55.8 LOB%) with a league average strikeout rate (24%).

A bit more expensively, but still $8K or less on either site, David Peterson offers a lot of volatility, but also more upside. If he can avoid that one inning where he seems to unravel in some starts, such as in Atlanta last time out, when he faced the minimum through four innings, but then didn’t make it out of the fifth, his 28.9 K% and 52.6 GB% are fairly exceptional. The problem is that nine of his 23 fly balls have been Barrels. The Rockies do have a 99 wRC+ vs LHP, but just a 58 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% and 7.7 HR/FB on the road. Frankie Montas is another marginally priced pitcher ($8.5K on FanDuel, but just $6.2K on DraftKings) when the Mariners (86 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP) come to Oakland. Montas has just a 21.4 K%, but 11.2 SwStr% that’s perfectly league average. His issue has been Barrels (11.9%), but the projected Seattle lineup includes just two batters (Haniger & Seager) above a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season.

A bit more expensive and facing offenses that aren’t that bad against LHP are Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi. Snell is coming off his best start of the year against the Rockies, striking out 11 with just one walk over six innings. Each of those numbers represent a season best. Yet, with a 33 K%, he still doesn’t reach a 20 K-BB%, due to a 13.7 BB%. This has kept his 3.79 ERA very close to a 3.83 SIERA and 3.72 FIP. Add in a contact profile with 10.4% Barrels/BBE, despite an 87 mph EV and his xERA climbs above four. He doesn’t go deep into games and the Brewers have an 11.2 BB% against LHP that could challenge his pitch count, but also a 26.9 K% against southpaws that might make it worth considering a price tag around $9K. Kikuchi is in Oakland (119 wRC+ vs LHP), but costs less than $9K averaging 25 batters per start with a 26.4 K% against mostly thunderous lineups against LHP this year. He could be a strong leverage play if ownership projects low enough.

If you’re not utilizing a high end pitching option tonight or even if you’re looking for compliment on DraftKings, your attention should be directed towards Seattle for the only other high upside spots on the board when the Tigers take on the Mariners. Casey Mize has specific issues with LHBs (career .390 wOBA, .273 ISO) and the Seattle projected lineup has a few marginal ones with some power, but it also includes six batters above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Mize has been more ground balls (52.2%) than strikeouts (16.5%, 8.7 SwStr%) and is probably someone you want to roster some of those LHBs against in several lineups rather than plug into your pitching spot. At $7K, he’s probably not cheap enough to play solely on the upside in the Seattle lineup tonight. His opponent, however…

A look at Yusei Kikuchi’s game log will illustrate that he has faced only the best offenses vs LHP this year (yes, even the Orioles qualify by wRC+), which then makes his 4.30 ERA and 25.6 K% (13.3 SwStr%) look a lot better in retrospect, especially considering that he’s sustained last year’s velocity. For the second year in a row, more than half his contact (51.7%) has been on the ground again too, while his walk rate is down three points. Finally facing an inferior offense, the 22.6 HR/FB should simmer down, as seven of his 10 Barrels (8.5%) have left the yard and we may even see a reduction in exit velocity (90.7 mph). The Tigers have a 55 wRC+, 33.8 K% and 2.6 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Thanks to that tough luck schedule, Kikuchi still costs less than $8K on DraftKings. The FanDuel price is a bit sharper at $9K, but he’s probably your best bet for a Quality Start beyond Cole and Darvish tonight.

Some of the higher upside spots (as determined by opposition strikeout rates) are either off the main slate (Rangers, Pirates) or in some spots you might not normally expect tonight. Brady Singer is in Detroit (six of nine projected batters above a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019). Dinelson Lamet is at Coors, but has been used more like an Opener in his two starts and experienced a large velocity drop last time out. He’s unusable tonight. Jordan Montgomery is in Tampa Bay (six of nine projected batters above a 26 K% vs LHP since 2019). The expected Yankee lineup includes five batters above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019, but Luis Patino has been used much like an Opener or multi-inning reliever as well. The projected Atlanta lineup includes just one batter below a 23 K% vs LHP since 2019, but Robbie Ray. Yusei Kikuchi faces the Dodgers, but why is he even on this list.

Brady Singer and Jordan Montgomery profile as middle to back of the rotation arms, but they may be who players would gravitate to among this group. The former has a 50 GB% and 23.6 K%, but just an 8.9 SwStr% and has struggled with five walks to just four strikeouts over his last two starts. This should be a get right spot for him and at just $5.7K on DraftKings, the perfect pairing for a higher priced arm. Montgomery may not be the flashiest pitcher in a rotation, but has all the makings of a quality arm. His 11.5 SwStr% is league average, his 45.7 GB% a bit above. He exhibits good control (6.1%) and has a near average exit velocity (90 mph) and Barrels/BBE (8.5%). His 4.77 DRA is higher than his 4.41 ERA, but all other estimators are below, including a 3.85 ERA. The 16.1 HR/FB is a bit high, but he gets a park upgrade tonight. He’s a better value on FanDuel for just $6.4K though.

Robbie Ray has come to do four things: chew bubble gum, miss bats, walk batters and allow lots of loud contact...except he’s not doing one of those things anymore and it has nothing to do with bubble gum. Ray has struck out 23 of his last 72 batters (17.3 SwStr%) without a walk. Again…without a walk! He’s still allowed five HRs on seven Barrels (14.3% - 93.5 mph EV) over that span, but two out of three ain’t bad. It’s been increased fastball usage (above 60% in each start) at increased velocity (95+ mph) that’s done the trick. Kikuchi has had a tough run of lefty-smashing offenses, but has maintained last year’s gained velocity and is generating a 12.9 SwStr% with a 52.9 GB%. The Dodgers may actually have the lowest wRC+ of any team he’s faced vs LHP and beyond the first three, there are a lot of strikeouts in this projected lineup according to Plate IQ. His 4.30 ERA is mostly in line with, but actually above all non-FIP estimators, which could drop as well against lesser competition. Both pitchers sitting in the $8K range on either site probably aren’t on the radar of most (if any) daily fantasy players tonight, but either may be a GPP sleeper.

On the surface, Yusei Kikuchi against the Astros looks like a terrible matchup and hopefully for those reading, most daily fantasy players will stop there. After all, Kikuchi has an ERA and FIP above five over in 220.2 innings with 42 HRs and 50 Barrels surrendered among 706 batted balls. But if you dig a little deeper, you’ll find a two mile per hour velocity increase last year that’s sustained through two starts this year. Now, he didn’t do much with that velocity, as his ERA remained above five, but his strikeout rate climbed from 16.1% to 24.2%. The culprit was simply a 59.9 LOB%. His worst estimator was a 4.34 SIERA. He’s started his 2021 by striking out 16 of 49, though with just a 9.3 SwStr%. This still may not be enough considering that the Houston lineup is generally full of potent, contact prone bats, but on top of George Springer being gone this year, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordano Alvarez all hit the IL with COVID concerns this week. Should they remain out tonight, Kikuchi prospectively faces a lineup with just one batter above a .200 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and while there still aren’t a lot of strikeouts in this makeshift lineup, the bottom three spots all exceed 25% against lefties over the same time span. With Jacob deGrom officially off the board tonight and other top priced pitchers having major concerns, Yusei Kikuchi could have some unforeseen value in an unlikely spot tonight. He costs less than $9K on FanDuel and only $7.2K on DraftKings.