Zach Davies Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The game in Milwaukee seems ripe for offense tonight. On the one hand, Tanner Roark has seen some regression over the last month (5.82 ERA) as his SIERA remains around 4.50. His .387 xwOBA over that span is second worst on the board over this span. After shutting down Milwaukee five starts back, he allowed three HRs to the Brewers two starts later. Now they’ll see him for the third time in six starts. A .371 wOBA (.362 xwOBA) against LHBs over the last year, does not seem ideal when facing Christian Yelich (215 wRC+, .412 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who seems to homer more often than not against RHP at home, Yasmani Grandal (122 wRC+, .240 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (116 wRC+, .249 ISO).

On the other hand, Zach Davies has allowed just two ERs over his last 22.1 IP, but did not strike out a single batter over seven innings last time out. He hasn’t faced the Reds in a while, but opened his season against them with four walks and then allowed a season high six runs against them in May. His 2.79 ERA is about half his non-FIP estimators (all above five) and while he’s managed contact well (5.7% Barrels/BBE is third best on the board), he has just a 14.8 K% and even his xwOBA (.334) suggest a below average pitcher. A 79.8 LOB% simply isn’t sustainable with that low a strikeout rate and eight of his 42 runs have been unearned. LHBs have had some success against him over the last calendar year (.325 wOBA, .335 xwOBA) and even RHBs have a league average xwOBA against him over that span. Eugenio Suarez (106 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yasiel Puig (122 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Jesse Winker (115 wRC+, .230 ISO) are key middle the order bats here. Dropping a small premium subscriber nugget, an extremely hitter friendly umpiring assignment behind the plate in this game (Greg Gibson), could give the offense just the boost it needs here.

It seems like a recurring theme on Draftkings that Brewers pitchers are underpriced in Miller Park as we’ve been able to get extremely cheap pricing on guys like Brandon Woodruff, Davies, and others throughout the year. Though it’s obviously a hitter’s park, Zach Davies isn’t a terrible pitcher and his price of $5400 on Draftkings tonight is just too cheap to ignore, especially if you're trying to stack Coors or other expensive bats. On the year Davies has a 3.00 ERA with a 5.00 xFIP and 5.28 SIERA with a 8% K-BB and 7.4% SwStr. As a low K% contact manager, Davies has always been a guy that outperforms his peripherals: in 551 career innings pitched, he has a 3.87 ERA compared to a 4.34 xFIP and 4.58 SIERA. Davies also owns a .338 xwOBA allowed, 5.7% barrel rate and 87.3 MPH aEV. He gets a matchup with the Giants tonight, who have just an 82 wRC+ amd 22.7% K rate vs. righties on the year. It is worth noting that the Giants have been better on offense recently, as they have a 7th best .334 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Davies also will have the benefit of one of the best pitch-framers in baseball with Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, as well as a pitcher-friendly umpire in Ben May calling balls and strikes. The Giants currently have a 4.27 implied line vs. Davies and the Brewers in Miller Park tonight.

Zach Davies doesn’t miss many bats (15.1 K%, 7.4 SwStr%), but has generally managed contact well enough that he’s not a pitcher daily fantasy players normally look to attack. His 87 mph aEV and 6.0% Barrels/BBE this year are reflective of that fact. Estimators run well above his 3.24 ERA, largely due to nearly 20% of his runs being unearned (seven of 40). This spot in Pittsburgh is a bit more interesting than most Davies starts though, because he’s facing a contact prone offense (Pirates 19.7 K% vs RHP) that has been hitting the ball very well (113 wRC+, 17.1 K%, 15.5 HR/FB last seven days). The Pirates have a healthy implied run line of 5.25 currently and Davies has developed a platoon issue over the last calendar year (LHBs .346 wOBA, .342 xwOBA). Among the first six batters in the projected lineup, none have a wRC+ below 110 vs RHP over the last calendar year with Josh Bell (163 wRC+, .298 ISO) continuing on his unlikely path toward MVP contention. Bryan Reynolds (145 wRC+, .167 ISO, .349 xwOBA) and Adam Frazier (125 wRC+, .187 ISO) would be additional bats of interest if near the top of the order, as projected. Also important to know that RHBs have a .371 wOBA over the last calendar year as well, though the park naturally suppresses RH power much more than LH.

Zach Davies is a low strikeout (15.2%) contact manager (87.2 mph aEV, 6.0% Barrels/BBE), but less so lately. He’s allowed four HRs over his last three starts and is up to a .357 xwOBA over the last month. Estimators are mostly two runs above his 3.06 ERA due to an 81 LOB% and 10.6 HR/FB. Despite trading off some their power assets, the Seattle offense has remained competent and although implied for just 4.3 runs tonight, still has something to offer daily fantasy players from the left-hand side (.347 wOBA, .341 xwOBA vs Davies last calendar year). Dan Vogelbach (170 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been a monster, but more quietly, J.P. Crawford (151 wRC+, .222 ISO) has been a pleasant surprise and Omar Narvaez (139 wRC+, .191 ISO) is a middle of the order bat at a tough position. Each of the latter two still cost below $3K on FanDuel.

Zach Davies had his best outing of the season against the Dodgers last time out (7 IP – 1 ER – 0 BB – 6 K), but can’t be expected to repeat against this dynamic offense (133 wRC+, 7.3 K-BB%, 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP) seeing him for a second straight start in a much more dangerous run environment in Milwaukee. While Davies does manage contact well (49.1 GB%, 15.1% 95+ mph EV), he generally does not miss enough bats (17.8 K%, 7.7 SwStr%). He also has a substantial platoon split with LHBs owning a .352 wOBA against him over the last calendar year and we can’t expect potent Dodger bats from that side to remain silent against him for a second straight outing. Joc Pederson (153 wRC+, .336 ISO), Corey Seager (162 wRC+, .229 ISO), Cody Bellinger (158 wRC+, .290 ISO) and Max Muncy (153 wRC+, .306 ISO) have all reigned down destruction upon right-handers over the last 12 months.

Zach Davies last pitched in the majors in May. He's since had 10 minor league starts at several levels, most recently striking out 15 of his last 52 batters in 15 one-run innings, but that's all below AAA and he had previously allowed at least four runs in four of six starts in the minors. Should he falter in his return to the majors, the top half of this Cubs' lineup should be able to take advantage of him. Daniel Murphy (133 wRC+, .183 ISO), Anthony Rizzo (138 wRC+, .228 ISO), Javier Baez (127 wRC+, .270 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (121 wRC+, .264 ISO) have all been dangerous bats against RHP.