Zach Eflin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The start of Rays vs. Orioles will be delayed due to inclement weather Saturday.

One of the first pitchers you’re generally going to cross off your list of rosterables is a RHP facing the Dodgers. However, the projected lineup for the Dodgers includes only three LHBs and their names are not Seager, Bellinger and Muncy, but rather Lux, McKinstry and Beaty. All have at least a 99 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020, but we’re now talking about a very different looking lineup with potentially five RHBs. That works out just fine for Zach Eflin, who has a rather large split of over 50 points since last season (LHBs .359 wOBA, RHBs .293). Essentially, Eflin costs less than $8.5K with a park upgrade and is likely facing a less potent lineup than expected. Eflin has a 24.7 K% with a matching 3.89 ERA and DRA, but no other estimators above three and a half. The current state of the Dodger lineup may make Eflin one of the unexpected better pitching values on the board.

An important aspect to remember as we embark on the last week of the regular season is team motivation. We can’t just assume a pitcher is set for his normal workload. Teams generally fall into one of four categories when it comes to pitcher workload management this time of year: getting pitchers ready for the post-season, still playing for a post-season spot, more cautiously managing the workload of younger pitchers or those with recent injuries, all systems go. A short five game slate allows us to examine all 10 pitchers tonight and see what category they fall into.

Looking towards the post-season: This is an easy one because the answer is nobody! The Cardinals are the only team in action tonight who have already clinched a post-season berth, but still have a magic number of four to clinch the division. It’s not out of reach for the Brewers.

Still playing for something: This is a bit trickier because teams like the Phillies (Zach Eflin) and Mets (Steven Matz) have absolutely no margin for error. This is not necessarily a positive in terms of choosing your daily fantasy pitcher because these pitchers are likely to have the shortest leash should something go wrong. Matz has been excellent at home (1.84 ERA, .282 xwOBA, 3.19 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) and is in a great spot against the Marlins (79 wRC+ vs LHP). He costs just $7.6K on DraftKings and should be fine here.

The Nationals (Patrick Corbin) are very close to locked in for a wild card spot, but we’re not sure which one. Corbin is second on the board with a 28.4 K%, .301 xwOBA and 3.87 ERA, but first with a 3.08 DRA. He may be the top overall arm on the board and should probably be treated as much. Adam Wainwright is in a similar situation, but he’s a low upside arm with a 14.8 K% over the last 30 days and has just a 7.2 SwStr% on the season with non-FIP estimators well above his ERA.

Zach Eflin owns estimators well above his 3.78 ERA due to the fact that five of his 47 runs have been unearned, along with a 79% strand rate that’s a bit too high for a pitcher striking out fewer than 20% of the batters he’s faced. This, despite the fact that he owns a 7.65 ERA with a .374 xwOBA over the last month and that’s still 67 points below his actual mark over this four start span. He’s allowed six of his 17 HRs over his last three starts. The larger problem for Eflin here is that LHBs have tormented him over the last calendar year to the tune of a .372 wOBA (37.8 GB%, 42.1 Hard%). An xwOBA 20 points lower is still not really saying much in his favor. The Dodgers have similarly treated RHP poorly this season with a split high 114 wRC+ against them (10.2 K-BB%, 17 HR/FB, 26.1 Hard-Soft%). Tonight’s projected lineup features just one batter through the first seven below a 113 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year (A.J. Pollock 87 wRC+). Pollock (.164 ISO) and Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .163 ISO) are also the only batters in that group below a .185 ISO vs RHP over that span. Remove Alex Verdugo (113 wRC+, .185 ISO) and each of the four remaining batters (all left-handed) own a 130 or better wRC+ and .245 or better ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. This is a terrible spot for Eflin with the Dodgers implied for 5.36 runs tonight.

Zach Eflin may be the Phillies’ most consistent pitcher this year, but he may not be doing things in a very sustainable way or least not a way that coincides with daily fantasy upside. Even his strikeout rate boost to 25.7% over the last month comes with just a 7.9 SwStr%, making his 3.25 K/SwStr the highest on the board over that span. His 2.83 ERA this season is due to a .271 BABIP (27 points below what the Philadelphia defense allows), 82.2 LOB% and 10.9 HR/FB. His SIERA, xFIP and FIP each reach four. While his 3.79 DRA and .293 xwOBA are a bit more impressive, they’re still both well behind his current ERA as well. His 87.7 mph aEV and 35.3% 95+ mph EV are more average than strong. If we call him a league average pitcher here in a warm and humid, power friendly environment, there may be some room for Mets’ bats, who own a 126 wRC+, 9.7 K-BB% and 23.6 HR/FB over the last week, especially considering Eflin still has a platoon issue (LHBs .351 wOBA, .329 xwOBA, 36.3 Hard%, 39.7 GB% over the last 12 months). Robinson Cano (112 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great value play here ($3.2K DK), while Jeff McNeil (140 wRC+, .145 ISO) and Michael Conforto (137 wRC+, .248 ISO) could be utilized in player pools as well. Another consideration might be Dominic Smith (111 wRC+, .191 ISO), who costs just $2.2K on FanDuel and is now outfield eligible.

Tyler Mahle has not allowed a HR in just three starts (two of those in Pittsburgh and Oakland). Along with his 20 K-BB% however, he owns an elite 21.7 K-BB%. The problem is that he also has just a 9.7 SwStr% with a 2.7 K/SwStr that may be difficult to sustain. The HRs and 24.7 LD% (.321 BABIP) are no fluke either with a 90 mph aEV. The good news is that he faces a predominantly RH lineup in Philadelphia, which has actually been below average vs RHP (93 wRC+, 13.6 HR/FB). The bad news is that it’s another power friendly park and they’ve recently swapped their leadoff hitter for a lefty power bat.

Zach Eflin has been more contact manager with great control (5.1 BB%) than bat misser (18.7 K%). The problem is that his aEV is just average, while his 85.1 LOB% is not sustainable. All estimators are 1.31 to 1.79 runs higher than his 3.02 ERA. The Reds are a well below average offense with a 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP.

Both pitchers have struggled greatly against LHBs over the last calendar year with ground ball rates below 40%, though Mahle’s .409 wOBA wOBA allowed is much worse than Eflin’s .344. Consider left-handed power in this affair. While Bryce Harper (124 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the obvious name, Derek Dietrich (130 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Jay Bruce (108 wRC+, .272 ISO) have been the guys tearing it up from that side of the plate this year. Dietrich still costs just $3K on FanDuel. If you’re looking for an even cheaper bat though, Jesse Winker (143 wRC+, .229 ISO) is the other bat in this game above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last year.

It should come as no surprise that the Rockies have the highest implied run line on the board (6.04) and with the lineup that Cleveland recently released, they should be able to open the gap towards the next highest team even farther. Zach Eflin struck out more than five last time out for the first time in seven starts and has allowed a total of one run over his last two after allowing at least three in nine of his previous ten. He's been fairly dominant against RHBs this season (.283 wOBA, 27.4 Hard%), but LHBs are another story (.353 wOBA). The clear focus here should be on Charlie Blackmon (117 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP this year) and David Dahl (112 wRC+, .242 ISO) as core Coors plays. Blackmon is the only player in the lineup above a 60 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.). Count Nolan Arenado (95 wRC+, .195 ISO) among the struggling, but he does own a 53.3 Hard% over the last seven days that suggests he could be ready to snap out of it.