Zach Plesac Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While a large Tuesday night slate is headlined by several top arms, most of them appear to be in marginal to difficult spots with the best matchups reserved for marginal pitchers. What’s a daily fantasy player to do? You’re certainly not trusting your single pitcher FanDuel slot to Patrick Corbin and probably not J.P. Sears (17.6 K%) either, though both project very strongly from a point per dollar perspective. Zach Plesac may be a different story. He has a 23.7 K% over his last five starts, but three of those starts have been against Tampa Bay and Detroit (twice), while he just snapped a stretch of five straight starts without completing six innings. While his 18.2 K% (11.3 K-BB%) and 10.4% Barrels/BBE produce estimators ranging from a 4.27 FIP to a 5.21 xERA, he is facing the Tigers (66 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP) again here. While Plesac hasn’t had much success with his four-seamer (42.7%, 0.5 RV/100, 15.3 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA above .400), the Tigers are the worst fastball hitting team in the majors (-0.75 wFB/C). With the Cleveland bullpen being heavily worked in Monday’s double-header as well, Plesac could be pushed a bit harder than usual.

Other than Plesac, it’s pretty hard to get away from the top of the board on FanDuel, but there are a few more SP2 options on DraftKings, though Plesac can also serve in that spot for just $7.2K. J.P. Sears at $6.0K is one option. He has failed to come close to reproducing his 33.7 AAA K% (43 IP) though 27.1 major league innings (17.6 K%). That’s not to say he’s pitched poorly though. Sears has walked just five of 102 batters with more popups (eight) than barrels (five) allowed. Estimators widely range from a 2.94 FIP/3.10 xERA to a 4.74 DRA in his small sample of work. Texas is a negative run environment with the roof closed, as it generally is during the summer, and while the Rangers are a dangerous offense against LHP (114 wRC+, 17.1 HR/FB), they also have a 23.4 K% against southpaws.

Justin Steele has struck out 19 of his last 45 batters (Marlins & Nationals) and has struck out at least six in six of his last eight starts. That he’s been able to do this while actually increasing his ground ball rate (51.3%) over this span is quite the accomplishment, though it’s hard to find anything he’s doing differently. He appears to be throwing a few more sliders (30.2%, -1.5 RV/100, 32.8 Whiff%, .165 wOBA, .203 xwOBA), but that’s it. On the season, Steele is up to a 23.7 K% with a 9.6 BB% (one walk or less in four of his last five starts) and 50.7% of his contact on the ground, while allowing just 3.6% Barrels/BBE (86.8 mph EV, 32.3% 95+ mph EV). His 3.63 ERA is within one third of a run of all estimators and he’s suddenly become quite interesting. The Nationals don’t like sliders, by the way (-0.81 wSL/C is third worst in baseball). The reason we like him much more as an SP2 on DraftKings than on FanDuel is because he is $3.5K less on DraftKings.

While Sonny Gray has struck out 22 of his last 84 batters to push his season strikeout rate up to 22.9%, he’s exceeded five innings in only two of his last 10 starts. He’s still managing contact well (5.9% Barrels/BBE) with popups (16.7 IFFB%) replacing the normally high ground ball rate (43.4%), though his 3.33 ERA is below all estimators, ranging from a 3.55 FIP to a 3.88 SIERA. The Royals are more a good run prevention spot than a really high upside one (92 wRC+, 21.9 K%, 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP). Gray would probably be fine for less than $9K if you really needed to save the salary with a decent floor, but just understand that the upside is likely limited.

Zach Plesac allowed just a single Barrel on 20 batted balls against the Tigers, but also generated just five swinging strikes and four strikeouts among the 26 batters he faced. Last year, Plesac broke, through in just eight starts: 27.7 K%, 14.3 SwStr%, 2.28 ERA. Estimators were more than a run higher, around 3.5, due to .224 BABIP, 91.7 LOB%. Expect some regression (he allowed 9.9% Barrels/BBE), but a 3.90 DRA his only estimator above three and a half. One bit of important optimism for DFS players is that we can expect Plesac to go deep into this game. He faced 26 Tigers in his first start and averaged just about that many per start last season. Cleveland lets their starters work. Also, despite the contact prone attack last time out, the Detroit lineup still projects for plenty of strikeouts with only four in the projected lineup below a 24 K% vs RHP since last season. Not only that, but no batter projected to start tonight is above a 106 wRC+ or .188 ISO vs RHP since 2019 (30 PA min.). The floor here seems to be a quality start the large majority of the time here with the upside of double digit strikeouts. While Plesac is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($9.6K), four pitchers on FanDuel are more expensive.

Zach Plesac has been regressing with at least four runs in four of his last six starts, but still has a 3.82 ERA (.248 BABIP, 79 LOB%) that’s well below all of his estimators, which are above five and confirmed by a .352 xwOBA. The interesting thing here is that Plesac has shown a substantial platoon split this year (RHBs .336 wOBA, LHBs .288). However, Statcast suggests there’s really no split at all and Plesac should be far worse against LHBs (.347 xwOBA), while also worse against RHBs (.355). Players should feel comfortable firing up the majority of the Washington lineup (5.13 implied runs). Trea Turner (119 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP), Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) and Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .305 ISO) are your top bats, Turner and Asdrubal Cabrera (97 wRC+, .193 ISO) are swinging the hottest bats in the projected lineup, both above a 200 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week.

Jose Suarez has stopped missing bats (11.6 K% last 31.1 innings) and has the highest xwOBA on the board over the last month (.408). Zach Plesac, incidentally, has the second highest (.402) in the other dugout tonight. On the season, RHBs have now punished him for a .419 wOBA with Statcast only marginally better (.376 xwOBA). The Tribe are the lowest of nine teams above five implied runs tonight (5.05) and they might be getting short changed in this spot. This projected lineup boasts four RHBs above a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP this year, led by Carlos Santana (159 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Jordan Luplow (168 wRC+, .345 ISO). Roberto Perez (116 wRC+, .243 ISO) is an interesting punt Catcher play and Franmil Reyes (116 wRC+, .233 ISO) is generally all or nothing. Although it’s their worse split, Francisco Lindor (108 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Yasiel Puig (92 wRC+, .158 ISO) are certainly viable in this spot too.

Though Plesac has seemingly been pretty lucky in the ERA department this year (3.53 ERA with a 5.13 xFIP and 5.20 SIERA) his .339 xwOBA allowed isn’t completely terrible and might help to explain a bit of the gap between his ERA and peripherals. Plesac also owns a 18.3% K rate, 9% BB rate, 37.9% hard contact rate and 9.6% SwStr. Plesac is at home to face the Royals tonight, who have a 5th worst 85 wRC+ on the year vs. RHP. The Royals also have a 4th worst .293 xwOBA as a team over the past month. Plesac will also have the benefit of catcher Roberto Perez behind the plate, who is one of the better pitch framers in baseball. Plesac is priced very affordable across the industry; he will be just $7.2k on Draftkings and $8k on Fanduel. The Royals currently have just a 3.77 implied line vs. Plesac and the Royals tonight. Alhough he does lack strikeout upside, Plesac can come into value rather easily in this spot given the price and matchup. He projects as one of the better value arms on the board.

Zach Plesac struck out seven Rangers last time out, allowing as many hits plus walks without allowing a single run. He still sits on estimators two runs above a 3.13 ERA, including a 6.04 DRA. A .332 xwOBA is not terrible, but still 29 points worse than his actual mark. This may be a more favorable spot than a 5.25 implied run line squarely in the middle of the board may project for the Red Sox. Plesac has shown a substantial reverse split thus far with same-handed batters having a .326 wOBA, but .345 xwOBA when facing him this year. That makes this spot appear strongest for Mookie Betts (147 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), J.D. Martinez (113 wRC+, .174 ISO), and Xander Boearts (147 wRC+, .245 ISO). While it has been a bit of a struggle for Martinez against righties, perhaps he’s coming out of it, with a 264 wRC+ over the last week.