Zach Thompson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A great argument can be made for not paying up for the most expensive pitchers tonight. In fact, that may even be the best play for those willing to embrace some risk because it’s not so much that upside is lacking in a lot of these arms, but volatility seems to reign supreme. Among some of the more interesting pitchers who have ERAs exceeding their estimators by quite a bit are Alex Cobb, J.T. Brubaker, Kenta Maeda and Shane McClanahan. On a start by start basis, Cobb has been very volatile, including his peripherals, but the overall package has been a 27.3 K%, 58.4 GB% and 4.3% Barrels/BBE that far outpace a 4.60 ERA (.331 BABIP, 57.7 LOB%), although a 3.83 xERA is his worst estimator by more than half a run. He’s nearly $10K on DraftKings ($9.8K), but a full $1K less on FanDuel in a matchup in Seattle (89 wRC+, 26.2 K%), one of the most negative run environments in baseball.

Brubaker was rained out last night, but also faces a below average offense (90 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs RHP), but the Mets’ lineup is more complete than it’s been at any point since early April. An 18.2 HR/FB has been a problem for Brubaker this year, but with 16 balls leaving the park and only 20 Barrels (8.2%), which includes an above average ground ball rate (47.7%) and average exit velocity (88.3 mph), there could be some positive regression there. However, his 4.09 ERA may not be effected much because an 80.4 LOB% and .268 BABIP could regress slightly the other way. The 18 K-BB% is above average and a strong value for $7.5K or less.

Maeda struck out 10 of 21 Royals over six shutout innings with a single walk and increased velocity in his last start, but that he still has an ERA above five without a single estimator below four suggests that he still has more to prove. If finally healthy though, what a great spot against the Tigers (91 wRC+, 26.4 K% vs RHP) at home for just over $7K and what better slate to take this kind of a risk? With a 20.5 HR/FB, McClanahan has a 4.18 ERA that’s well above all of his estimators, with a 3.87 FIP, naturally, the closest fit. He’s struck out 28.3% of the batters he’s faced with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.6%). This certainly sounds like a pitcher you want in your lineups on a volatile slate, but in his case, the issue is matchup. The Blue Jays have a 107 wRC+, 22.2 K% and 15.7 HR/FB vs LHP. Still, in a negative run environment with such a live arm for less than $8K, you might be willing to take the risk.

One other pitcher, who’s ERA is below estimators, but is worth mentioning is Zach Thompson. After coming out of nowhere to strike out 21 of the 69 batters he faced at AAA this season, all in relief, Thompson was quickly thrust into the major league rotation and has responded with a 32 K% (14.8 SwStr%) over five starts. his worst estimators a 3.56 xFIP and DRA. The Braves have a 102 wRC+ and 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP, but transition from Atlanta to a negative run environment in Atlanta and also have a 25.1 K% vs RHP, while Thompson costs only costs $6.9K on DraftKings. With Thompson and Alek Manoah, players could get a combined strikeout rate above 60% for less than $14K.