Zack Godley Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Normally an offense to target with pitchers, the Giants have some decently priced bats in a nice matchup vs. Zack Godley and the D-Backs tonight. Godley has followed up a mediocre 2018 with an ugly 2019, posting a 7.65 ERA / 5.33 xFIP / 5.27 SIERA so far in 37.2 innings with a 6.2% K-BB. He’s giving up a career high 43% hard contact, a 1.67 HR/9 and a .386 xwOBA allowed with a 10.7% barrel rate allowed. Joe Panik (86 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) projects to leadoff at just $3.5k. Steven Duggar (84 wRC+, .147 ISO), Buster Posey (103 wRC+, .104 ISO), Brandon Belt (129 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Evan Longoria (84 wRC+, .167 ISO) are all available for $4.1k or less on Draftkings and $3k or less on Fanduel. Joe Panik (.419 xwOBA over the past 10 days) has been the Giants’ hottest hitter. Brandon Crawford (.375) has also seen the ball well recently and is cheap across the industry. The Giants have a 4.32 implied total for tonight.

The Red Sox have underwhelmed thus far compared to their dominant 2018, they currently own a middling 14th best xwOBA with a .316 mark so far in 2019 after ranking 1st with a .343 xwOBA in 2018. Tonight they face Zack Godley, who is coming off a rough 2018 that saw him post a 4.74 ERA / 4.18 SIERA. Godley does a good job limiting power (0.81 HR/ in 2018) but allows plenty of baserunners (1.45 WHIP in ’18) which doesn’t matchup well vs. a Red Sox team that ranked 1st with a .344 OBP vs. RHP in 2018. J.D. Martinez (.428 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Mookie Betts (.424), Mitch Moreland (.382) Andrew Benintendi (.376) and Xander Bogaerts (.366) are all upside plays in the middle of the Sox order. Moreland in particular is a nice value batting 3rd and very affordable across the industry. Rafael Devers (.324) and Blake Swihart (.301) are also in play batting 6th and 7th, respectively.

The game in Arizona does not present imposing run totals, while the humidor has negative impacted the run environment, but none the less, a couple of not entirely obvious batters stand out against two pitchers who struggled their first time out. David Peralta has an impressive 155 wRC+, .262 ISO and 52.1 Hard% against RHP over the last year, while LHBs had a .351 xwOBA against Rick Porcello last season (39.6 Hard%). While the normal candidates stand out for Boston as well, players could consider “punting” their Catcher position with Blake Swihart as well. Swihart has been an above average hitter (116 wRC+, .154 ISO) vs RHP over the last calendar year and has started this season with hard contact on three of his six batted balls so far.

Zack Goldey has a 27.3 K% over the last month and keeps LHBs on the ground on 55% of batted balls, more than 10 points higher than RHBs, but he he also has an 88.4 mph aEV. If that gets him in trouble occasionally in Arizona, Coors could be a disaster. Godley has a .320 or better wOBA against batters from either side of the plate this year, but xwOBA increases each side by at least 25 points. As such, the Rockies top the board by a pretty healthy margin at 5.4 implied runs. In fact, no other team is even above five tonight. David Dahl (127 wRC+, .268 ISO) has a smaller sample size, but tops the lineup by wRC+ and ISO against RHP this season and bats fourth tonight. He costs a very reasonable $3.4K on FanDuel. Charlie Blackmon (115 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Trevor Story (102 wRC+, .214 ISO) are the only other bats in the lineup above either a 100 wRC+ or .200 ISO against RHP this year. Nolan Arenado (99 wRC+, .197 ISO) just misses by both counts.

Tonight's holiday slate features just five games. One pitcher is making his first major league start, another his second. A third pitcher has been on the DL all season (one start). A fourth has been on the DL since August 17th. A fifth hasn't pitched in the majors in three months and hasn't started in four. There's also whatever the Rays are doing. The remaining choices are Erasmo Ramirez, Zack Godley, Alex Wood and Jacob deGrom. Wood and deGrom are facing each other. Wood (21 K%, 3.89 SIERA, .301 xwOBA) is facing a lineup with a 78 wRC+, 24.8 K% and 8.9 HR/FB in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. He went seven innings in Texas last time out and though he had just four starts in August, he's been above 95 pitches in five of his last seven outings. DeGrom (31.5 K%, 2.87 SIERA, .257 xwOBA) is facing a much more difficult offense (113 wRC+, 15.6 K% vs RHP) in that same park. He's struck out at least nine in six straight starts. Godley (24 K%, 4.02 SIERA, .344 xwOBA) is at home against the Padres (81 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP). He allowed six runs to them in San Diego three starts back, but has at least six strikeouts in nine straight starts, though more than seven only once in that span. Considering cost and matchup, any of these three arms are reasonable options, perhaps the only reasonable options. It will be interesting to see whom players decide to side with here.

Soft tossing (or at least below average velocity) lefties could be a theme on this daily fantasy slate with only six pitchers above a league average strikeout rate. Dallas Keuchel gone at least seven innings in five of his last nine starts, has the third best ground ball rate on the board (53.8%) and the seventh best xwOBA (.309). Most importantly, the Angels are absent their two legitimate right-handed bats. The drawback is his lowered strikeout rate this year (17.5%) and also that of the Angels vs LHP (20.8%). Rich HIll has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (though with just a 9.1 SwStr%) and is actually closer to the bottom of the board than the top with a .343 xwOBA, but it’s been better over the last month (.303) and he’s in a great matchup (Padres 24 K% vs LHP) in a great park. C.C. Sabathia has struck out 19 of his last 47 batters. His .305 xwOBA is sixth best on the board and he has the lowest aEV (84.9 mph). He’s missed two weeks with a knee issue and the Orioles are a predominantly right-handed lineup (.313 wOBA, 13 HRs vs Sabathia this season). That’s not a particularly good right-handed lineup and batters from that side have been just league average against him, but the O’s have just a 21.9 K% vs LHP, despite a 75 wRC+. Andrew Heaney's ERA is up over the last month and he's in a tough spot against the Astros. However, it's in a negative run environment and his estimators have remained on pace with his season rates below four, while his 22.8 K% is sixth best on the board. Jason Vargas has a career high 10.5 SwStr% and just an 85.5 mph aEV. He's allowed just four runs over 11.1 innings in his last two starts and the Nationals are a deep and balanced, but under-performing offense for the entire season now. Gio Gonzalez has been terrible (2.4 K-BB% last 13 starts), but so are the Mets at home (80 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB) and vs LHP (79 wRC+, 25.5 K%). A couple of RHPs might even be more interesting tonight. Joe Musgrove has gone at least seven innings in eight of his 14 starts. He has set down 13 of his last 53 batters on strikes and has a ground ball rate above 50% in four of his last five starts. His 86.6 mph aEV is sixth best on the board, which gives him the best xwOBA on the board at .291. The Brewers have a 16+ HR/FB at home and vs RHP, but also a 25+ K% at home and vs RHP. Zack Godley is facing a contact prone Seattle offense (20.2%), but his 11.9 SwStr% is highest on the board along with a 50.9 GB% and in an NL park, the Mariners are likely to be without one of their top bats, perhaps Nelson Cruz.