Zack Greinke Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The bad news is that there’s not a lot of upside on the middle of the board today. The somewhat rosterable guys are all pretty much low strikeout, control and contact management artists like Marco Gonzales, Ryan Yarbrough or Zack Greinke. Gonzales appears to be back to form. While that doesn’t mean he’s racking up the strikeouts, in fact, his strikeout rate has barely budged (20% season, 20.3% last 30 days), it does mean excellent control and contact management. He has a 5.0 BB% and 84.8 mph EV over his last four starts with an increase in velocity as well. Estimators are still well above a 4.35 ERA, partially due to just a 12.2 K-BB%, but also because he’s still sitting on 12.5% Barrels/BBE after an awful first few months. However, he’s allowed just six barrels over his last six starts. Why would you consider using him today? He costs $8.2K or less ($7.6K on DK) and the Rangers have just a 78 wRC+ vs LHP with a projected lineup including three above a 28.5 K% vs LHP right in the middle. Texas is also a negative run environment with the roof closed, which it almost always is during the summer.

Yarbrough missed a start, but only one on the COVID IL. His game is elite control (4.2 BB%) and contact management (84.2 mph EV) with just enough strikeouts (19.6%) to have some value. While the Orioles do have a 108 wRC+ vs LHP, they also have just a 90 wRC+, 25 K% and 9.7 HR/FB on the road, while the Trop is one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Strikeout rates in the projected lineup rate marginally, but Yarbrough costs $8K or less and has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him too. The floor seems fairly high here.

Every time you think Greinke might be reaching the end of his usefulness, he does something like go out and shut out the Angels for seven innings on two hits with seven strikeouts. He still has a 5.0 BB% and has allowed just 6.6% Barrels/BBE, but with the strikeout rate dipping to 18.6 K%, all estimators are more than half a run above his 3.51 ERA (80.3 LOB%). None of that’s ideal, but he’s completed seven innings in 10 of 24 starts with quality starts in more than half of them and faces an offense with an 84 wRC+ and 10.3 HR/FB in a marginal run environment, but one that suppresses power. In addition, five of nine in the projected Kansas City lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year, while Greinke costs a reasonable $8.1K on DraftKings.

Additional cheaper SP2 GPP options include Jesus Luzardo has allowed 15 runs over 14.2 innings in his new uniform, walking 11 of 72 batters with just 13 strikeouts and three home runs. On a more positive note, he has a 15.9 SwStr% and 85.8 mph EV for his new team. He just needs to get to strike three before ball four more often. He’s pitching in a great park and three of the eight projected Altanta starters have at least a 27 K% vs LHP. Luzardo is high risk and shouldn’t be touched in cash games, but costs just $6.1K with some upside. Lastly, let’s cringe and note that Mike Foltynewicz has actually thrown 10 quality starts this season, including each of his last two. That’s probably because he has a 5.9 BB%, so all he does is give up solo shots with a .262 BABIP. He costs just $5.1K in a favorable park against a projected lineup that includes six batters with at least a 22.5 K% vs RHP this year.

Zack Greinke gets the ball for the Astros tonight coming off a disappointing outing vs. the Rays on 10/7 that saw him allow 6 earned on 3 and 2/3 innings, with 3 home runs allowed. Greinke has a 4.58 ERA / 4.29 FIP in the postseason with a 1.53 HR/9 over 70 and 2/3 innings. He had a 3.02 ERA / 3.28 FIP, 17.3 % K-BB and .276 xwOBA allowed over 68 and 2/3 regular season innings after being traded to Houston. His home/away and lefty/righty splits are very even over the past 5 years, so no advantage or disadvantage to be had there. He’ll face a Yankees lineup tonight that posted a 3rd best 114 wRC+ during the regular season with a 23.1% K rate.

The Yankees come into this game with a postseason-best .363 xwOBA as a team, but only have an implied total of 4.01 vs. Greinke tonight. Their projected lineup: 1. DJ LeMahieu (.364 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Aaron Judge (.383), 3. Brett Gardner (.312), 4. Edwin Encarnacion (.339), 5. Giancarlo Stanton (.370), 6. Gleyber Torres (.330), 7. Gary Sanchez (.379), 8. Didi Gregorius (.291), 9. Gio Urshela (.363). Not much of a sample size here, but Aaron Judge has swung it well with a .528 xwOBA over 14 PA in the playoffs thus far. Gleyber Torres is right behind him with a .472 mark in 13 PA. Once Greinke is chased from the game, The Yankees will face a tough Astros ‘pen that has allowed just a .288 xwOBA over the past 30 days.

Masahiro Tanaka gets the nod for the Yankees and has his work cut out for him as his opposition has the highest implied total (4.99) on the slate by about a full run. Tanaka last pitched on 10/5, so he’ll be pitching on full rest. Tanaka posted a decent 4.45 ERA / 4.29 xFIP over 182 regular season innings but saw his K% shrink to a career-low 19.6%. He does have a 1.54 ERA / 3.61 xFIP in the postseason, but in a small sample of 35 innings. In terms of xwOBA allowed, Tanaka has been a bit better at home (.279 allowed at home, .317 away since 2015) but nothing too crazy. The Astros led all of baseball with a 123 wRC+ vs. RHP and also had the lowest K rate in the league vs. RHP at 18.4%

The Astros come into this game with just a .291 xwOBA over 177 plate appearances in the postseason, though we have a much larger sample of regular season stats to tell us that this is probably the most dangerous offense in baseball. Their projected lineup for tonight: 1. Springer (.389 xwOBA v. RHP this year), 2. Brantley (.377), 3. Altuve (.325), 4. Bregman (.370), 5. Alvarez (.414), 6. Gurriel (.318), 7. Correa (.363), 8. Chirinos (.284), 9. Reddick (.309). Though the Astros have mostly been cold so far in the postseason, Jose Altuve and Robinson Chirinos both have xwOBAs over .425, and Michael Brantley has a decent .385 mark as well. The coldest Astro has been Correa with a .186 xwOBA, which isn’t too much of a surprise given that he played just 3 regular season games over the final 6 weeks of the regular season. Once Tanaka is chased, the Astros will face a Yanks’ bullpen that has allowed a .312 xwOBA over the past month.

Zack Greinke didn’t significantly increase his spin rate or velocity immediately upon landing in Houston. In fact, his strikeout rate has decreased to 19.5% in 49.1 innings, but he’s retained excellent control (4 BB%) with a significantly increased ground ball rate (52.3%) and has an ERA (3.10) with estimators below four (3.50 FIP, 3.92 xFIP). He’s gone at least six innings in all but one start for the Astros, missing by only a single out. Perhaps the Houston rub is starting to show on him though, because he’s generated a 14+ SwStr% in three of his last four starts. The Angels have a reputation as a contact prone offense. Throw all season long stats for this team out the window with a lineup minus Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton. The team has a 70 wRC+ and 21.5 K-BB% over the last seven days. Tonight’s projected lineup features one batter above a .200 ISO vs RHP and just three below a 25 K%. This is now a high upside spot in a favorable park for Greinke, who’s been showing more positive signs recently. At $300 from $9.5K on either site, Greinke is outside the five most expensive arms on either site as well.

Aaron Sanchez did not allow a hit in his first start for the Astros. That probably makes Zack Greinke a lock to throw a perfect game tonight. At least it may make him one of the top high priced values on the board tonight and potentially tonight’s top overall arm. Greinke already liked to throw his off-speed and breaking stuff around half the time anyway, so it’s curious what changes the Astros will make. If he comes out throwing 95 mph again, there will probably be an investigation. However, he’d been pitching pretty well recently already (27.8 K%, .262 xwOBA last 30 days). For the season, Greinke brings over a 20.3 K-BB%, 29.3 Z-O-Swing% (best on the board) and .279 xwOBA with an 86.7 mph aEV. The really interesting thing here is that Greinke may have been running what looked like an unsustainably low .263 BAIBP 30 points below what the Arizona defense allows. However, the move to Houston pairs him with a defense allowing a .261 BABIP. His 2.94 DRA already matches his 2.90 ERA. With additional estimators above three, he may have a better chance at continuing to beat them in Houston. While Greinke also enjoys a park boost in Houston, he also has a great matchup tonight. In addition to the Rockies’ 84 wRC+ vs RHP this year, they also have just a 71 wRC+ with a 20.7 K-BB%. Three pitchers cost more than Greinke tonight, who’s just below $10K on either site.

Zack Greinke is probably the top overall pitcher on the slate tonight and it may not be that close, which also likely makes him the top value among tonight’s three high priced pitchers ($10K+). In a neutral matchup and environment, both Hyun-Jin Ryu and Lance Lynn have been the superior arms this year, but all things are not equal with Ryu facing a Washington lineup that’s tough on lefties in Washington and Lynn facing a difficult Oakland lineup that doesn’t strike out much. Greinke has thrown at least seven innings in five of his last seven starts and has allowed runs (meaning any) in just four of his last eight starts. He has at least six strikeouts in five straight starts (27.5 K%) with just three walks. He has excelled at getting batters to chase out of the zone this season (27.9 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board), resulting in an 86.5 mph aEV, just 6.4% Barrels/BBE and a .283 xwOBA. He gets a trip to the extremely negative run environment in Miami and gets to face the offense with split lows 75 wRC+ (18.9 K-BB%) vs RHP and 30 wRC+ (27.6 K-BB%) over the last week. Greinke costs $10.5K or less on either site tonight.