I enjoyed doing this instead of the normal thing. Here's how it all ended up (red is < 3x value, yellow is between 3x-4x value, green is > 4x value).
- I ended up with a loss of 13% on the day. A down week, but nothing disheartening.
- Lineup construction is such a huge deal. I ended up down on the day but I owned every single player that won the $3 1.2MM GPP except for the Texans. It's not just enough to have the correct players in your pool yet that's what the vast, vast, vast majority of DFS discussion is on these forums, podcasts, articles, and videos. Trying to figure out how to mix and match them to optimize your potential points is just as important. I'll need to focus more on that next week.
- I had too much Lewis. I knew I had too much Lewis when I posted this yesterday. If I shifted Lewis from 16 to 11 and Ingram - the other player I liked at that price point - up from 3 to 8 the day could have been more positive. These are the good examples of how thin the margins are in this game. I can't only focus on the negatives though because I also said I had too much DJ Moore at 45% owned. With Moore being more contrarian than I thought - around 4.5% - it was a nice boost that mitigated the Lewis errors. I think moving forward capping exposure at around 60% as long as there's not an injury related misprice such as the Chubb week is ideal.
- I don't feel too awful about the Lewis play in general. The Colts did their part for a shootout, Lewis had 20 yards on the first drive, and then Gabbert had to come in for Mariota and that killed any chance of success. Still too much exposure, but a play I don't regret in retrospect.
- Tight End and Defense was a dumpster fire for me this week. I need to improve at those positions instead of treating them as pure salary relief dart throws.
- Too many 1 off dart throws without much of a reason for them. Crabtree with Jackson was a hopeful play instead of a smart one. Godwin in a crowded offense was a hopeful play instead of a smart one. "(player-popup #doug-martin)Doug Martin":/players/doug-martin-13565 was going against a terrible run defense but he doesn't get enough volume to roster him. Smallwood was a pick of a low volume RB in a crowded backfield. Some of the other one offs had potential to put up big games - Hopkins, Boyd, Juju, and Shepard can put up 30 in some weeks - but those other ones just had no real purpose.
Overall it was a fun week. I think after having a couple of positive weeks that the process is still improving. I'm better than I was in week 4 and I hope I can say the same in week 14 about me right now. Thanks to the forum for keeping things interesting.