1/15/19 Sports Betting Matchup Breakdown: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets - RotoGrinders
Hey everyone, welcome to the RotoGrinders daily sports betting breakdown. Unlike other betting articles, we will not be giving you our “picks” for this game, but rather breaking down all the historical numbers you need to make an educated bet
Now, let’s get to the breakdown for January 15, 2019: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Tonight’s matchup should be a good one as it pairs the top two teams in the Western Conference against each other. The Nuggets currently sit at the top of the Western Conference with a record of 29-13 (8-2 in their last 10), while the Warriors currently sit .5 games back in the Western Conference with a record of 29-14 (7-3 in their last 10)
Nuggets Historical Numbers Against the Spread
A surprise to a lot of people this year is that Denver may actually be the best team in the NBA (I don’t believe this, but some do), and with their surprise success, they have gone 23-19 ATS. With the high altitude, it is fairly well known that Denver has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. Currently on the year, the Nuggets have gone 14-7 ATS at home and 2-0 as a home dog, although it should be noted that this advantage has been baked into the spread in the past as the Nuggets were 20-20-1 ATS at home last year. While teams generally struggle in Denver on a back to back, the Nuggets play this home game on a full days rest, where they are 13-12 ATS on the year.
Warriors Historical Numbers Against the Spread
While the Warriors came into the year with everyone expecting them to runaway with a title, they have performed under expectations. Currently the Warriors have been the worst team in the NBA to bet on going 18-25 ATS. Additionally, the Warriors are playing in a spot where they have been at even more of a disadvantage this year as they are 8-12 ATS on the road, 6-10 as a road favorite, and 11-14 ATS on a full days rest. It should be noted that many of the games they have played this year have been without one of their “stars”, but they have performed similarly bad regardless of who is out on the court. Overall, this is a bad situation for the Warriors looking at their performance vs. expectation this year.
Historical Numbers on the Total
The Warriors come into this game ranking near the middle of the NBA in both Pace (10th) and defensive efficiency (16th), but they currently rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Nuggets have played a fairly different way this year ranking near the bottom of the league in Pace (27th) while ranking near the top in both offensive efficiency (6th) and near the middle in defensive efficiency (10th).
Nuggets Historical Numbers on the Total
The Nuggets have been drastically better on the defensive end of the floor this year which likely explains why they are near the bottom on the league at covering the over going just 16-23-1 this year. While overall they have not been good at covering the over, at home they have been right near the league average going 10-11 on the over this year with a similar 19-22 last year. It should be noted that Denver has performed well on a full days rest this year going 13-11-1 on the over this year.
Warriors Historical Numbers on the Total
Even though the Warriors haven’t been as good as expectations this year, they have been in a decent amount of high scoring affairs and are 23-20 on the over. While at home they have a tendency to blow out opponents and end in lower scoring affairs, on the road has been a different story. The Warriors are 13-7 on the over on the road and an incredible 12-4 as a road favorite. Additionally, the Warriors have been in high scoring affairs on a full days rest and have gone 14-11 on the over in those spots.