Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown article here on RotoGrinders. While most sports betting articles only give you “picks” for the game and move on, we do things a little different. We give you all the historical information on the spread and total for you to make an educated bet on some of the most interesting games of the night, as well as include some of our best bets of the day
Now, let’s get to the breakdown for January 31, 2019: Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Tonight’s matchup features two teams firmly in the playoff race in each conference. The Nets currently sit at 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 28-24 and are on a big hot streak winning 8 of their last 10 games, while the Spurs sit at 6th in the Western Conference with a record of 30-22 and are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Nets Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Nets are surprising people as of late and overall on the season have performed well for those betting on them as they have gone 29-23 ATS this season. Looking at this situation overall, it sets up as a good spot for the Nets to cover. The Nets have played well on the road this season and have actually been the second best team to bet on the road going 15-10 ATS. Additionally, they have been good on a full days rest going 17-13 in that scenario. Overall, this sets up as a very good spot for the Nets to cover.
Spurs Historical Numbers Against the Spread
There has only been one team in the NBA that has been a better team to bet on than the Spurs (31-21 ATS) and that has been the Mavericks (31-19 ATS). Looking at the overall variables for this game for the Spurs, we can see that they have exceeded expectations. The Spurs have gone 18-9 ATS at home this year, but have only gone 11-8 ATS as a home favorite. Looking at the Spurs on back to backs we see that 5-4 ATS this year, but they get a full days rest in this matchup and have been slightly above average going 17-15 ATS. Overall, this sets up as an average spot for the Spurs to cover here.
Line Movement and Current Bet Totals on the Spread
The Spread for this game opened at -7.5 and with 57% of the bets coming in on the the Spurs side of the ball, the line has not moved.
Historical Numbers on the Total
The Nets this year have been a drastic change from last year where they were playing at a high pace and were incredibly unpredictable with their rotations, however this year they have gone a little more middling. On the year they rank 15th in the NBA in pace, 17th in defensive efficiency, and 13th in offensive efficiency. The Spurs on the other hand have played at one of the slowest paces in the league ranking 23rd and have played below average defense, ranking 23rd, and elite on the offensive end ranking 6th in offensive efficiency.
Nets Historical Numbers on the Over
Even though the Nets have been better on the offensive and defensive end of the floor this year, they have played at a slower pace and have covered on the over at a league average rate going 27-25. While the Nets have been an above average team at hitting the over at home this year, they have been below average on the road going 12-13. Additionally, we see that last year they were an average team on the road going 20-20-1 on the over. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Nets to cover on the over.
Spurs Historical Numbers on the Over
No team has covered on the over more this year than the Spurs who have gone an incredible 30-21-1 on the over this season. While they have been incredible on the road this season (16-8-1) comparatively they have not been in a whole lot of high scoring affairs at home where they have been able to control the pace. The Spurs are just 14-13 on the over at home this season and a below average team as a home favorite going 9-10 this season. Overall, this sets up as a very bad spot for the Spurs to cover on the over.
Line Movement and Current Bet Totals on the Spread
The line for this game started out at 227.5 and with 52% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has actually dropped to 225.5 showing some clear reverse line movement.
My Picks
