2019 College Football Win Totals: Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma Sooners

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2019-06-26T17:21:29

The 2019 college football season is right around the corner, which means it’s time to start scouting college football season win totals in the betting market. While not all online sports betting sites have released college football win totals, FanDuel Sportsbook has win totals out for select teams in each Power 5 conference, along with the Mountain West Conference and a few Independent teams.

Today, we bring you college football betting tips by looking at Big 12 Conference win totals and breaking down 2019 season forecasts for the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns.

Oklahoma Sooners — Over/Under 10.5 Wins, -125 to Win Big 12

The Oklahoma Sooners lose a Heisman-winning quarterback for the second year in a row, as Kyler Murray ditched the Oakland A’s to enter the 2019 NFL Draft. Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the No. 1 overall selection, the Heisman winner will play for a coach he once beat in the Big 12, former Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

Despite losing Murray, the Sooners are favorites to win the Big 12 for the fifth consecutive season. In fact, at FanDuel they’re -125 favorites to win the conference. The last time Oklahoma won less than 10 regular season games was in 2014. Third-year head coach Lincoln Riley, a prodigy of Mike Stoops and Mike Leach, is widely regarded as one the brightest, young offensive minds in the country.

Riley and the Sooners replace Murray with one of the most sought after grad transfers in college football history. Jalen Hurts makes the move to Norman two years after being benched by Nick Saban for now-Heisman favorite Tua Tagovailoa in the 2017 national championship. Hurts was 26-2 as a starter for the Tide, and will be afforded the luxury of using his legs and arm with much more freedom in Riley’s offensive system.

Additionally, the Sooners have to replace first-round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who accounted for most of the Sooners’ receiving production during the 2018 season. They shouldn’t have too difficult of a time finding players to fill his shoes, as Riley has brought in some of the nation’s best recruiting classes. Returnees CeeDee Lamb, Charleston Rambo and Grant Calcaterra are joined by 6-foot-3, 195 pound Jadon Haselwood, the No. 1 or No. 2 freshman wide receiver depending on what recruiting rankings you reference.

Oklahoma’s offense will be more than fine, but there are plenty of question marks on the defensive side of the ball. Riley fired former head coach Bob Stoops’ little brother, Mike Stoops, after losing to the Texas Longhorns 48-45 in the Red River Shootout last October. The Sooners replace interim defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeil with former Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Grinch will improve the Sooners defense — a squad that ranked 130th in pass defense and dead last in the conference in total defense and scoring defense. With over 90 percent of starters returning, we’ll find out if the problem was with Stoops or the personnel.

The Sooners begin their schedule with home games against Houston, where they are 26-point favorites, and South Dakota before traveling to the West Coast for a primetime matchup against the UCLA Bruins. Don’t expect the Sooners to trip before conference play, as the Bruins come off a disappointing 3-6 season in Chip Kelly’s first year.

FanDuel Sportsbook has spreads out for five other Oklahoma games as their “Games of the Year.” The Sooners are at least 10-point favorites in four of those and 3-point favorites at a neutral site against the Texas Longhorns. Their road schedule is pretty easy, closing out the season in Stillwater against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Overall, Over/Under 10. 5 wins is right on the money. It’s difficult to picture Oklahoma losing three games, but maybe they slip up twice. They play their biggest threat at a neutral site and host the Iowa State Cyclones. With Texas and Iowa State both lurking to end their Big 12 title streak, you’re better off waiting to bet the Big 12 title game than to buy short-money odds to win the conference. If you’re looking to jump on a game early, consider locking in Oklahoma -3 against Texas.

Texas Longhorns Over/Under 9.5 Wins, +250 to Win Big 12

Is Texas is back? You’ve heard the story before. Texas enters Week 1 with a preason Top-25 ranking and all the hype of a national title contender, but by December, they end up unranked and unimpressive. In 2018, it seemed like Deja Vu again. Tom Herman’s squad opened up the season with a disappointing loss to the Maryland Terrapins for the second year in a row, but unlike previous years, Texas was quick to bounce back. The Longhorns answered with six straight wins, including an upset over the eventual Big 12 representatives in the College Football Playoff.

More impressive than that was a Sugar Bowl win against No. 5 Georgia on New Years Day. If it wasn’t for a last-second loss in Morgantown, the Longhorns would have entered the Big 12 Championship with a chance to make the College Football Playoff. That didn’t matter, as Texas failed to repeat against the Sooners.

Like Oklahoma, Texas has been stock-piling recruiting classes. Herman locked in both the No. 4 ranked 2018 and 2019 classes. The strong classes are much needed, as the Longhorns are forced to replace more production from 2018 than any other Power 5 school. In fact, the Texas ranks 121st in Bill Connelly’s returning production metric.

On top of that, Texas has one of the toughest schedules in the conference. The Longhorns kick off their season as 20.5-point favorites against Louisiana Tech but follow up with a marquee matchup against the Louisiana State Tigers in Week 2. As of now, FanDuel lists Texas as 2.5-point home underdogs against LSU. If they’re right, Texas could easily enter conference play with a loss.

Aside from Oklahoma, the Longhorns face tough matchups in West Virginia and at Iowa State, where they’re currently 2.5-point favorites. Interestingly, Texas is only 2.5-point favorites at TCU, which could be a nice number to lock in if you think the Burnt Orange is, in fact, back. The one bright spot on their schedule is, outside of trips to West Virginia and Iowa State, the Longhorns play all of their games in the state of Texas, which will certainly be beneficial down the stretch.

With so many games on their schedule simply too close to call, one of my favorite bets in all of college football is Under 9.5 wins. The Longhorns are a lot like the Dallas Cowboys. Their fans are spread across the country, and bettors love to back them early. If it weren’t for the Sugar Bowl win, the preseason conversation surrounding this team would sound entirely different.

Once again, if you’re looking for general NCAA betting tips, please refer to our College Football Betting Guide.