Hello NBA fans, and welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
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Today’s breakdown features the game 3 matchup between the two seeded Toronto Raptors at the three seeded Phiadelphia 76ers.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
This prop is pretty simple. Siakam and Leonard have been on an absolute tear this series and have both gotten around 50 each of the first 2 games. I’m expecting something similar in game 3 here and while I think the likely scenario is that the end around 95 total. On the other hand, I don’t expect Embiid to do what he’s done in the first 2 games. I think that this is going to be the game where Embiid finally shows up and puts up a 50 burger. If all three of these players do what they are suppose to, then they should end up around 150 total, but even if they have an off game, I expect this prop to hit. Lock it in.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Raptors Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Raptors have been a fantastic team all season long, but have been a below average team to bet on, going 41-47-1 ATS (7th worst in the league). Looking at the Raptors home/road splits we don’t see a drastic difference in cover rate, with the Raptors going 20-22-2 ATS on the road and 21-25 ATS at home. However, the Raptors have been a significantly worse team as a road favorite, going 11-16-1 ATS. Looking at the Raptors on a full day of rest, they have been one of the worst teams in the league at covering, going 24-31-1 ATS (8th worst in the league). Overall, this is a below average spot for the Raptors to cover.
76ers Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Much like the Raptors, the 76ers have been fantastic this year overall, but have not covered a high rate, going 43-46 ATS. Unlike the Raptors, the 76ers have been much better at home this season, going 23-21 ATS. Additionally, the 76ers have been an above average team on a full day of rest, going 27-21 ATS. Overall, this is an above average spot for the 76ers to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The line for this game opened at Philadelphia -1.5 and with 64% of the bets coming in on the Raptors, the line has moved to Toronto -1.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Raptors Historical Numbers on the Total
The Raptors have been a stout defensive team this season, but have been an above average team at covering the over, going 47-41-1. Looking at their home/road splits we do not see a big difference in cover rate, as the Raps have gone 23-19-1 on the road and 24-22 at home. Additionally, they have only been slightly above average on a full day of rest, going 29-26-1. Overall, this is an average spot for the Raptors to cover the over.
76ers Historical Numbers on the Total
Philly has been near a .500 team all season long at covering the over, going 44-45. Looking at their home/road splits, we see a little bit of a disparity as they have been much better at home, going 23-21 this season. Additionally, the 76ers have been a .500 team at covering the over on a full day of rest, going 24-24 this season. Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the 76ers to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Total
The total for this game opened at 216 and with 70% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has moved to 216.5.
My NBA Picks for May 2, 2019 – Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
(Top Photo: Tom Szczerbowski/USA TODAY Sports)