Hello NBA fans, and welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
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Today’s breakdown for May 3, 2019 features the game 3 matchup between the one seeded Milwaukee Bucks at the four seeded Boston Celtics.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
This series has been a weird one, with the Bucks failing to show up in the first game and then dominating in the second. For me, this game should feature Giannis and Irving completely taking over the game and ending with around 50-60 points each. Kyrie failed to do much of anything in the last game, but this entire playoffs he’s been crushing and Giannis will likely be all systems go this game. Lastly, Middleton has been the one guy that’s shown up both games this series and will likely get his normal 40 again.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Bucks Historical Numbers Against the Spread
No team has exceeded expectations this year as much as the Bucks, and as such they own the top record against the spread at 52-32-4 ATS. While the Bucks have been dominate both at home and on the road this season, they have been slightly better on the road going 26-15-2 ATS, including a 6-2 ATS record as a road dog. Additionally, the Bucks have been fantastic on multiple days rest, going 12-6-3 ATS (4th best in the league). Overall, this is an above average spot for the Bucks to cover.
Celtics Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Celtics had some high hopes for the regular season, but failed to lock up a top seed. However, they have still been an average team to bet on this season, going 43-43-2 ATS. Looking at the Celtics home/road splits they have been close to identical both on the road and at home, with a slightly better road record (22-21 ATS). Additionally, Boston has been a slightly below average team on multiple days rest, going 7-9 ATS. Overall, this is an average spot for the Celtics to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The line for this game opened at Boston -1 and with 68% of the bets coming in on Boston, the line has moved to -2.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Bucks Historical Numbers on the Total
Milwaukee has been involved in so many blowouts this season that they have only covered the over at a slightly below average rate, going 45-42-1. Much like their numbers against the spread, there isn’t much of a difference between their home and road numbers as they have gone 22-21 on the over on the road. However the Bucks have been a much better team on multiple days rest, going 12-8-1. Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the Bucks to cover.
Celtics Historical Numbers on the Total
The Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, but they have also covered the over at a well above average rate, going 49-39 (3rd highest rate in the league). The Celtics have been better at covering the over at home this season, going 25-18 at home compared to 24-21 on the road. Additionally, the Celtics have been just an average team on multiple days rest going 8-8 this season. Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the Celtics to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Total
The total for this game opened at 220, and with 62% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has not changed.
My NBA Pick for May 3, 2019 – Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
(Top Photo: Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports)