AAF Week 2 Betting Preview: Odds, Picks And Power Rankings - RotoGrinders
The Alliance of American Football (AAF) is coming off a successful opening weekend that saw the league record high television ratings for its first-ever games. It was a different story at the betting window. While some sharps jumped on the new league, public bettors stayed away from the AAF. Will that change this weekend? We have everything bettors need to know for Week 2 of the AAF including power rankings, future odds, game lines and picks.
Public waiting to bet on the AAF
The sportsbooks we spoke to report a modest betting handle from the first weekend of AAF games. While some sportsbooks did a little better than expected, every oddsmaker said the same thing. It was all sharp money last weekend. The public sat back to watch the new league first before betting money on it.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook took less than $10,000 of action on each game. Derek Wilkinson, sportsbook supervisor at the SuperBook said the amount of money wagered on AAF games was similar to a mid-level college basketball game.
“I think over the next couple of weeks we’ll see the public start betting it more,” Wilkinson told RotoGrinders. “The first week was almost no public action. It was all wiseguys trying to pick off numbers. I’m anticipating a higher handle over the next couple of weeks. Sharps are always looking for an advantage so a new league with new teams, they’re going to jump all over it any chance they get.”
One big difference in the Week 2 lines is the totals aren’t nearly as high. Each game opened with a total in the 50s for Week 1 but after three teams failed to score a touchdown, the numbers predictably dropped. Many books saw more action on the totals than sides last weekend with sharps betting unders.
“We were anticipating a lot more scoring the first weekend,” said Wilkinson. “When we were watching the first two games on Saturday, we noticed the totals dropping for Sunday. A lot of sharps were hitting the unders. I do think the totals will start evening out though and rise to where we anticipated the first week.”
Favorites went 4-0 SU and ATS in Week 1, while three of the four games came in under the total. Will we see a similar trend in Week 2 or is there value taking underdogs and overs? We have power rankings, future odds and game picks to get you ready for the second weekend of AAF betting.
You can also play daily fantasy AAF for Week 2 at Fanball. RotoGrinders has player projections for each position.
To read a complete breakdown of or Week 2 power rankings, click here. All lines/odds referenced herein from the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook.
Power Rankings and Future Odds
1. Arizona Hotshots (+200)
2. Orlando Apollos (+200)
3. Birmingham Iron (+600)
4. San Antonio Commanders (+600)
5. Salt Lake Stallions (+800)
6. San Diego Fleet (+1200)
7. Memphis Express (+4000)
8. Atlanta Legends (+4000)
Overview: Arizona opened as the +250 favorite to win the league. The Hotshots move to +200 after their impressive 38-22 opening day win over Salt Lake. Orlando opened +500 to win the league but are now the co-favorites with Arizona after the Apollos blew out Atlanta 40-6 in Week 1.
One of week’s biggest movers is Birmingham. The Iron were tied for the longest odds to win the AFF at +1000 before the start of the season. Following Birmingham’s Week 1 26-0 demolition of Memphis and Christian Hackenberg, the Iron moved to +600.
Two other teams sitting at +600 are Salt Lake and San Antonio. Both teams are worth a look at that price. San Antonio defeated San Diego 15-6 in Week 1. The Commanders’ defense is one of the better units in the AAF, while their offense came along in the second half after a slow start.
Salt Lake lost in Arizona but the Hotshots look like the best team in the league. The Stallions trailed just 19-16 before Arizona blew the game open in the fourth quarter. Salt Lake plays Birmingham this weekend in a matchup of my third and fifth ranked teams. If the Stallions pull the upset, their odds will drop to around +400 next week.
Last week I recommended playing the Fleet +1000 to win the league, suggestion they are a boom or bust team worth a wager. We saw some of that in San Diego’s first game. The defense performed well enough to win but poor quarterback and offensive line play doomed the Fleet against San Antonio. I still believe the Commanders are a title contender, so I’m not taking too much away from one loss. Oddsmakers agree, as San Diego saw a slight drop to +1200 in its future odds. We’ll see if new starting quarterback Philip Nelson can jump-start the offense this week, or at least not get his head knocked off.
The two teams that saw their odds increase the most are Atlanta and Memphis. As I wrote last week, Atlanta was priced way too low at +500 to win the league. The Legends looked like a disaster entering the season and they didn’t disappoint by getting blown out in the opener. Atlanta appears to be the worst team in the AAF and are now +4000 to win the title.
Memphis dropped from +1000 to +4000 this week, mainly because…. Hackenberg. I stated in my initial Week 2 power rankings that while I have Memphis at No. 7, I don’t think the Express looked that bad outside of the quarterback position. The defense kept Memphis in the game until wearing down in the fourth quarter and the Express may have one of the best offensive lines in the AAF.
Hackenberg is just awful, though. There’s a chance a quarterback change turns Memphis’ season around, so if you’re looking to take a longshot, go with the Express over Atlanta. Memphis has more overall talent. Although, putting your money on Zach Mettenberger at quarterback probably won’t lead to an early retirement.
Week 2 Matchups, Lines and Picks
Salt Lake at Birmingham
Line: Birmingham -7, 44.5
Birmingham’s defense dominated in Week 1 and Luis Perez looks like one of the top quarterbacks in the AAF. However, this line feels a little inflated. The Iron got to beat up on Hackenberg and Memphis at home, while Salt Lake faced the Hotshots in Arizona.
Salt Lake needs either Josh Woodrum or Matt Linehan to step up at quarterback. The two combined to go 17 of 35 for 159 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 1. They also averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt. Woodrum is dealing with a hamstring injury, so Linehan could get the nod on Saturday.
One thing to watch though is Salt Lake’s running game. The Stallions have three good running backs Joel Bouagnon, Branden Oliver and Matt Asiata. They ran the ball 28 times versus Arizona. Meanwhile, Birmingham allowed 4.0 yards per carry to Memphis, despite Hackenberg not being able to throw a forward pass.
I’ll take the points here with Salt Lake in what looks like a tight game. I have these two teams closer than the 7-point spread. I made the number Birmingham -4.
Pick: Salt Lake +7
Arizona at Memphis
Line: Arizona -13, 47
You have to hand it to sharp bettors, they know a good thing when they see it. That good thing is fading Hackenberg. The line opened Arizona -11.5 at the SuperBook and jumped to 13 in a few hours. Amazingly, Hackenberg will get another start this week. In other news, Mike Singletary was coaching high school football and considering leaving the profession until Memphis called. How is that decision looking?
This game features arguably the worst quarterback in the AAF (Sorry, Matt Simms) versus the best in Arizona’s John Wolford. Wolford threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns against Salt Lake. Singletary said he wants to see how Hackenberg responds in Week 2. I already know the answer. Lay the points.
Pick: Arizona -13
Orlando at San Antonio
Line: Orlando -6, 44.5
I’m really excited to watch this game. I view both of these teams as title contenders and I’m looking forward to seeing how they improve in the second week. Orlando was extremely impressive in the opener but it’s hard to know just how good the Apollos are because they faced lowly Atlanta.
Meanwhile, the Commanders may be the most underrated team in the AAF right now. San Antonio has one of the league’s better defenses. The Commanders sacked San Diego quarterbacks six times last week.
Starting quarterback Logan Woodside was inconsistent in the opener (18 of 36, 255 yards and two interceptions) but he did grade out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 rated quarterback last week behind Wolford. I expect Woodside to improve as the season goes on and he’s facing a much weaker defense this week in Atlanta. San Antonio also ran the ball well in the second half against the Fleet, finishing with 125 yards on 33 carries.
I have Orlando as a 3-point favorite in this game, so I’m taking San Antonio getting six points at home. The Apollos come in overvalued after beating the Legends. I also like the over 44.5 here. Steve Spurrier will coach aggressively and I expect San Antonio’s offense to be better with a game under its belt. The Commanders are my favorite play of Week 2.
Pick: San Antonio +6 and Over 44.5
Atlanta at San Diego
Line: San Diego -9.5, 44
How bad is Atlanta? San Diego didn’t score a touchdown in Week 1 but are almost a 10-point favorite over the Legends. For all the backlash Hackenberg is getting, Matt Simms was almost as bad in the opener. Simms went 15 of 29 for 126 yards and two picks. He finished with a laughable 4.5 yards per attempt. Aaron Murray (4 of 7, 38 yards and 1 interception) struggled as well. We don’t know who will start Sunday but, in all honesty, does it really matter?
This game comes down to Philip Nelson. He’s getting the start over Mike Bercovici and in my opinion, Nelson is the better fit for Mike Martz’s offense. Bercovici has a stronger arm but lacks pocket presence and his poor decision-making hurt San Diego’s offense last week. He missed quite a few open receivers against San Antonio. Nelson went 5 of 10 for 68 yards and an interception in relief of Bercovici. Expect a much better game from him against Atlanta’s defense.
Atlanta has been outscored 77-17 in its two AAF games (preseason/regular season). Until they prove otherwise, the Legends are the worst team in the AFF and an automatic fade. The Fleet laying 9.5 is one of the strongest plays of the weekend. The under is also worth a look, as San Diego’s defense should dominate an Atlanta offense with probably the AAF’s worst offensive line.
Pick: San Diego -9.5 and Under 44