The Breakfast Spread: Warriors Try To Close Out Rockets Without Kevin Durant
The Warriors suffered a major injury Wednesday night but came out with the win thanks to late-game heroics from Steph Curry. The Rockets will try to take advantage of Kevin Durant’s absence in Houston tonight. Here’s a sports betting recap of Game 5 and a lookahead to Game 6.
The Golden State Warriors regained the series lead with a 104-99 win in Game 6 but it didn’t come without a major casualty.
It was the calf strain, briefly thought to be an achilles tear, heard around the world. With just over two minutes left in the third quarter, Durant missed a mid-range jumper and took off to the other side of the court. He wouldn’t make it far, though. After a couple of steps, Durant quickly winced in pain, looking behind him to see who had kicked him. No one was there.
Durant left the game with a non-contact injury and didn’t return. The good news is it wasn’t an achilles tear like many speculated. The bad news? Golden State lost its leading scorer for the remainder of this series and possibly beyond.
Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all rose to the challenge, outscoring the Rockets 32-27 in the final quarter. Curry was most impressive, scoring 16 points on nine shots after Durant got hurt.
With the news, oddsmakers scrambled to make major adjustments to futures prices.
“The futures price on Golden State, which hadn’t dipped lower than around -160 at any point during the regular season or playoffs, saw a market-wide correction down to anywhere from even money to +120 — including at PointsBet, where the Warriors were adjusted from -170 to +105.PointsBet Blog
Despite the consensus Game 6 moneyline on Houston opening around -300, the Rockets series price was initially available as low as +190 and as high as +275.”
Our own Thomas Casale reported that Durant is worth 3.5 points to the spread.
Houston is now favored by 7 points around the industry and the Over/Under has dipped from 221 in Game 5 to 213.5 in Game 6.
Stat of the Day
One. That’s how many shots former MVP and back-to-back scoring champion James Harden took in the final 8.5 minutes Wednesday night.
Harden still finished with 31 points on 10-0f-16 scoring, which makes his final 8 minutes even more baffling.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Shop: Rapid Fire 1.56x (Curry, Thompson, Green)
The original Golden State clan will definitely see a boost in production with Durant on the sideline.
With Durant on the court, Curry averages 27.7 points in the regular season and 20.8 in the postseason per 36 minutes. When Durant is off the court, those numbers increase to 34.4 and 34.6 respectively.
Klay Thompson finally found his stroke in Game 5, leading the Warriors with 27 points. The Splash Brother went 5-of-10 from the arc. I especially like Thompson making more three-pointers than Houston’s Eric Gordon tonight.
For the third leg of the Raid Fire prop parlay at Monkey Knife Fight, I’m going to with a Rocket. Clint Capela is +.5 rebounds vs. Draymond Green. Last game, Capela grabbed 14 rebounds compared to Green’s 12 despite playing 14 minutes less.
Breakfast Lean: Curry +6.5 points vs. Harden; Thompson -.5 three-pointer vs. Gordon; Capela +.5 rebounds vs. Green.
The Breakfast Pick
Buying low on all of the Warriors futures before Game 5 may not have gone exactly as planned, but while pieces have changed since their 2015-16 season, Golden State is still led by a trio that managed to break the NBA single-season record in wins while Durant was still in Oklahoma City.
I’m staying away from the first quarter bet that has yet to let us down this series, but 7 points for the game simply seems like too much. Curry and Thompson will play aggressive, ready to shoot at the same volume they were before Durant’s arrival three seasons ago. It’s just a matter of whether the shots fall. Breakfast Pick: Warriors +7.
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