Bowl season is underway and while some matchups are more appealing than others, there are certain games at CG Technology sportsbooks generating interest from sharps. At the top of the list is the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1 where an influx of smart money has moved the spread two points.
Ohio State (12-1) opened as a 4.5-point favorite over Washington (10-3) at CG Technology and many other sportsbooks. Once head coach Urban Meyer announced he would be retiring after the Rose Bowl, the spread jumped two points to -7. It was either 7 or 6.5 at most books as of Dec. 20.
On the surface, it may seem like public money coming in to back the “Urban Meyer final game” theory. However, that’s the not the case at CG Technology. Sharps have been hitting Ohio State hard since the line was released and that’s the reason for the two-point movement in the spread.
“The sharps are all over Ohio State in this one,” Jason Simbal, Vice President of Risk Management at CG Technology, told RotoGrinders. “We opened at 4.5 and it got bet up to five. When it was at five, that’s when Urban Meyer announced he was retiring, so we moved it up to -6 but people bet it up to seven. That’s mostly sharp action that caused the move.”
A perfect storm for sportsbooks
While smart money has come in on the Buckeyes early, it doesn’t mean the public won’t be backing Ohio State, too. Simbal expects this to be one of the rare times where the majority of sharp and public money are on the same side, making it a perfect storm for sportsbooks.
“You know the public is going to be on Ohio State even after the sharps bet it up to seven, so that doesn’t put us in a great position,” Simbal said. “We know the public will lay the seven and it might get to 7.5. It won’t go any higher than that.”
Ohio State finished the season strong winning five straight games, including a 62-39 thrashing of rival Michigan. The Buckeyes were 3-2 ATS in those games and 6-7 ATS on the year.
Washington was a dismal 4-9 ATS but closed out the season with consecutive covers in wins over Washington State and Utah. Books will be hoping the Huskies can keep that ATS run alive on New Year’s Day.
“This game really stand out to me because the sharps are betting one of the more public sides, which is never good for us,” Simbal said. “We’ll certainly have heavy exposure on Ohio State in this one.”
Public backing Notre Dame to upset Clemson
The two matchups with most overall intrigue are the College Football Playoff games on Dec. 29. However, oddsmakers aren’t expecting either game to be very competitive. Clemson (13-0) is laying 13 points to Notre Dame (12-0), while Alabama (13-0) is a 14-point favorite over Oklahoma (12-1).
At CG Technology, the action is split on the Alabama/Oklahoma game. Clemson and Notre Dame is a different story. Not surprisingly, the public is backing the Fighting Irish.
The issue for CG Technology isn’t that the public is betting Notre Dame. That’s as common as grass growing. The difference here is the sportsbook has taken a lot of bets on the Notre Dame moneyline +370.
“Bettors are taking both the points and the moneyline with Notre Dame pretty significantly,” Simbal said. “To give you an example of how much they’re taking the moneyline on Notre Dame, we actually had to cut the price. Notre Dame is a 13-point dog and +370 on the moneyline, which isn’t a good price. Oklahoma is a 14-point dog and you’re getting +425. They’re betting Notre Dame hard and it’s all public money.”
Notre Dame isn’t catching double-digit points often but when they do, the Irish are dangerous. Since Notre Dame got blown out by Alabama 42-14 as a 10-point underdog in the 2012 National Championship Game, the Irish have been dogs of 7 points or more just five times. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in those games, winning two of them straight up.
“It looks like we’re going to need Clemson in this one and we’re going to need them to cover the spread as well,” Simbal said. “We did take some sharp bets laying 12.5 with Clemson but not enough to offset all the Notre Dame money. We’re going to need the favorite here for sure.”
Sharps find value in lower-tier bowls
Not all the smart money is on the marquee matchups this bowl season. Besides the Rose Bowl, the game drawing the most interest from sharp bettors is the Alamo Bowl between Iowa State (8-4) and Washington State (10-2) on Dec. 28.
The Cyclones opened as 4.5-point underdogs but immediately saw sharp action come in on them. The spread was down to Washington State -3.5 at CG Technology and most other books a week before kickoff.
Washington State finished a stellar 10-2 ATS this season but head coach Mike Leach has a losing bowl record. Leach’s teams have gone 6-7 in bowl games, including 1-3 in his six years at Washington State.
Sharps are betting that Leach’s bowl struggles continue this year, as they’re taking both Iowa State plus the points ant the Cyclones +145 on the moneyline.
“The sharps are on Iowa State and they’re taking the moneyline,” Simbal said. “Mike Leach has a pretty bad bowl history, so the sharps really like that one for sure. It’s been one-sided action on Iowa State.”
Iowa State is 3-1 SU in its last four games but 0-4 ATS in that span. The Cyclones were double-digit favorites in three of those games and a 1-point underdog at Texas in the other.
One team Simbal said he wasn’t expecting to see the sharps come in on is Purdue. The Boilermakers (6-6) are facing Auburn (7-5) in something called the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl on Dec. 28.
Auburn opened as a 4.5-point favorite but that number had dropped to 3.5 as of Dec. 20. The Tigers are coming off a disappointing 7-5 season after being tabbed as national title contenders this summer.
Motivation could play a factor for an Auburn team that finished 5-7 versus the number this year, although Simbal is still surprised to see smart money backing Purdue.
“The sharps took Purdue right out of the chute as a 4-point dog,” Simbal said. “I just think athletically if you have a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team vs. a team like Auburn, it doesn’t really add up in terms of talent. But they really came hard with Purdue out of the gate as a small dog, which I wouldn’t have thought. So, there you go. Bet Purdue.”