Arbitrage Betting Guide: What It Is and How to Do It in Sports Betting
Would you like to place sports bets with no fear of losing? Does this sound too good to be true? I introduce to you, arbitrage betting. Any sports bettor who wants a healthy, sustainable bankroll must have the arbitrage tool in their belt. We will discuss what it means to arbitrage bet, how to find arbitrage opportunities, and best practices for success with arbitrage.
What is Arbitrage Betting?
So, what is arbitrage? Arbitrage, also known as “arbing” or “sure betting”, is the practice of placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event to guarantee a profit, regardless of the result. In binary betting markets, arbitrage means to play both sides when betting odds guarantee a profit. Before we dig deeper, let’s look into a quick example to hammer home the concept.
DraftKings Sportsbook offers the New York Yankees at a -155 price to beat the Boston Red Sox on a given night of the MLB season. To win $100 we must bet $155 on the Yankees. With this line, DraftKings will likely offer the Boston Red Sox as an underdog at a price of roughly +130.
So, how can we use arbitrage to find a guaranteed profit? Searching different betting apps, we would peruse MLB odds to find the Red Sox at +155 or better. Why? If we bet the Yankees on DraftKings for $155, we will return $255. In another sportsbook, if we bet the Red Sox at +155 for $100, we will return $255 ($100 bet and $155 win). Therefore, if we find the Red Sox at longer odds than +155, we can bet less on the Boston side to win a small profit.
Before you close this tab because I have given you a way to win a few bucks, we can use arbitrage sports betting at a higher scale across several betting sites to lock in more money. Instead of betting $100, what about $1,000, or more? We will talk more about sizing and scale soon, but let’s walk through how to identify sports betting arbitrage opportunities first.
Understanding Arbitrage Opportunities in Sports Betting
We know what arbitrage is now. Where can we find arbitrage betting opportunities? This starts with accounts on different sportsbooks. For sports bettors to take advantage of sure bets, they must hold accounts with as many betting companies and betting apps as possible.
Accounts across all sports betting sites offer the largest menu of arbitrage chances. We are in business when different sportsbooks offer different odds for the same event. Arbitrage opportunities exist in many sporting events. You might find different odds on NFL prop bets With different gambling platforms, we can find arbitrage opportunities for a tennis match. With back-and-lay bets on a betting site like bet365, we can guarantee a profit in horse racing.
So, how do we find profitable arbs? Do you have time to scroll? Using a mobile device or desktop, you can look through various betting markets to find a pair of mismatched odds. The larger the discrepancy in odds, the greater the profit percentage you guarantee with your arbitrage. So dust off your monitors, break out your iPad, and keep your phone handy. A pair of blue light glasses might be in order.
What if you don’t have the time? Arbitrage betting will require the use of multiple screens or tabs to place the bets. However, what if you do not want to start at all of these tabs for hours hoping for a 2% gain on your money? There are various betting software and websites that are available that spot arbitrage opportunities at a fee. Unfortunately, the existence of these websites means that bookmakers move their odds quickly when they receive an influx of action. The arbitrage opportunities often vanish quickly.
So, pre-match arbitrage betting is tricky and comes at us fast. Can we be creative? Arbitrage opportunities exist pre-match as well as in live betting markets. Live betting odds move quickly and provide myriad opportunities to make money with arbitrage if you are diligent and attentive to detail.
How can we focus on detail? First, we must calculate arbitrage betting value.
Calculating Arbitrage Betting Value
Successful sports betting arbitrage requires you to recognize profitable arb opportunities. The formula for calculating arbitrage betting value takes into the implied odds offered by different bookmakers. Let’s consider an example of a football match.
The formula for calculating arbitrage betting value for the moneyline of a football match is (1/Team A odds) + (1/Draw odds) + (1/Team B odds) < 1. Decimal odds make this calculation far quicker. You should switch your mobile betting app’s setting to this representation. If not, you must convert the American odds to their implied probabilities, instead.
That said, let’s say one betting company offers Team A at 1.75. You find Draw odds of 4.75 for the same betting company. Lastly, you find differing odds for the football match at different bookmakers. The best odds for Team B to win the match are 5.50. Arbitrage opportunities occur when the formula results in a value less than 1. The difference between 1 (or 100%) and that value is the arbitrage betting value.
For our example, (1/1.75) + (1/4.75) + (1/5.50) = 0.9637. 1 – 0.9637 = 0.0363. When we multiply that value by 100 we find that our arbitrage betting value is 3.63%. The odds discrepancies we found offer free money to those taking advantage of this process.
When you find an arbitrage opportunity, you can use an arbitrage calculator to determine exactly how much money you should wager on each outcome to lock in a profit.
We must have multiple accounts with various bookmakers. If not paying for software to quickly calculate arbitrage value we must have a spreadsheet or a different mechanism. Finally, we need quick access to an arbitrage calculator to place our bets.
We are ready to place an arbitrage bet. Arbitrage bettors, beware: this practice in excess will flag betting companies and potentially limit your account. Let’s discuss how to manage this risk and avoid detection by several bookmakers.
Managing Risk and Avoiding Detection
We are ready. We know how to spot arbitrage bets with the highest value. We opened multiple accounts across various betting sites giving us access to two or more markets for any sporting event. Finally, we located or developed our arbitrage betting calculator to quickly spit out the values required to place sure bets. Yet, could arbitrage be too good to be true?
In most cases, yes. Betting companies will not sit idly while we win consistently even for a minimal profit. Is arbitrage betting legal? Yes. Will sports betting sites limit your account if they detect arbitrage bets? Yes. Should you avoid arbitrage betting? No…
Instead of completely avoiding this profitable betting strategy, we must be careful and employ strategies to fly under the radar. How do we fly under the radar and still place these bets? Let’s consider a few ways to avoid being spotted by bookmakers.
Avoid Placing Large Bets
Undoubtedly, we all want to win piles of cash as sports bettors. The greater volume placed on sure bets guarantees a greater profit. However, betting a short line for a maximum stake will throw up red flags for bookmakers. Avoid large wagers! Instead, attempt to find opportunities with closer odds or spread your daily action across a variety of wagers.
Rounding Up Bet Sizes
Don’t make it so obvious! When you make your two wagers, you normally decide on sizing for one sportsbook before placing the original bet. A calculator will determine the precise amount to bet on Team B. Don’t bet it to the cent. If the second bet is supposed to be $48.97, bump it to $50. Rounder numbers are less obvious and you will still make a profit.
Mix Up Sportsbooks
Try not to use the same sports betting sites for every bet. As you gain more experience, you will identify which betting market to attack for each sports betting site. If you can, make multiple small wagers instead of one bet.
You will also learn which sports betting sites use the same company to generate odds. When the line moves in your favor, splitting action across those books is a key way to make a profit regardless of the outcome.
Avoid Promotional Betting
I am not telling you to avoid winning bonus bets. In fact, we will discuss how to turn a profit using bonus bets later in this article. However, you should not attack every single promotion a sports betting site offers.
Let’s be honest. When you become an arbing expert and are piling up large sums through sure bets, you don’t need to take advantage of a boosted bet on FanDuel Sportsbook. While there are differing opinions about the ways sites limit players, only attacking promotional opportunities seems to be an obvious way to gain unwanted attention.
You are turning a profit anyway. Don’t nickel and dime every single opportunity. The moment we start losing access to sports gambling sites is when we lose opportunities to be a profitable bettor.
Be Careful With Alternate Markets
NFL spreads and totals are the most efficient markets for bookmakers. They are very challenging to beat. For that reason, gambling platforms are unlikely to mind if you bet a lot on either side. (Check out our best NFL betting apps for the 2024 season!)
However, if bookmakers notice that you like to bet the over on an implied game total that is ten points less than the Vegas line, you might draw some unnecessary attention. Those alternate markets normally carry extreme prices in either direction. Frequently attacking heavy favorites will not look great to oddsmakers.
Avoid Frequent Withdrawals
Again, don’t make it so obvious! Keep a spreadsheet or log of your wagers and your profit. Place bets across all of the sports betting sites but don’t withdraw your entire bankroll each day. Leave some scattered across all sports betting sites so you can swiftly take advantage of an opportunity and try to stagger withdrawals on these sites when one bankroll becomes bloated.
Similarly, be careful when you place bets. Bet cancellation is another red flag. If you frequently cancel bets on a betting site, you gain unwanted attention.
Lose Money
Excuse me? I was told betting arbitrage involves placing bets and never losing.
You are right. We don’t want to lose. However, we want sports betting sites to think we are losers. Track your bets across the different bookmakers. Track your wins and losses for all sites and attempt to balance the action. We won’t mind looking like losers on all betting sites. Yet, if we are big losers on one site, we must have won elsewhere.
When possible, try to lose on each site. Sometimes, finding a zero-percent arb across two or more betting sites will help you keep up a losing profile.
If you are performing well, take a few shots. Place a few whacky same-game parlay bets that are likely to lose but have the capacity to win big. You won’t be upset if you hit a big score and when you inevitably lose the bookmakers will stay off your scent.
So, what happens if we aren’t careful and place the largest possible wagers on player bets for every sports event available to us?
Risks of Arbitrage Betting
The risk of placing all of these sure bets with no regard for your image to bookmakers is pretty straightforward. You will be limited and you will lose options as a bettor.
For success with this approach, like sports sites, you must be highly competitive. To be highly competitive means that you can take advantage of any betting market. To be highly competitive you must have odds discrepancies available for every sporting event.
If you don’t attempt to stay under the radar with our aforementioned strategies, you are likely to be limited to the point of no action by various bookmakers.
I learned about the risk of arbitrage betting with my own first-hand experience. First, I would manually scroll through mobile apps to find sure bets in the most obscure markets. I would place my two bets or cover all of the outcomes of an event and extract as much profit as I could.
That was very shortsighted. While I was very profitable for a short time, the loss of several key bookmakers hamstrung my ability to find sure bets. Now I am reduced to using this approach to find creative ways to unlock bonus bets cheaply or for free to use for futures betting.
Take your time! Don’t move too fast! If you are careful with this approach, you can turn a smaller profit for a longer period of time.
Advanced Arbitrage Betting Strategies
Hedge Bets
Have any future bets? If you possess a large position on a future for NFL, MLB, or the NBA, you might consider using this strategy to make a risk-free profit.
For example, say you held a ticket for the Boston Celtics to win the 2023-2024 NBA Championship. When the Celtics made the finals to play the Dallas Mavericks, you might be weary of leaving that entire future up to chance.
With arbitrage, we can calculate the amount to bet on the Dallas Mavericks at the odds of their series price to guarantee a specific profit without any risk. Use your calculator to determine the amount at those odds and lock in a conservative profit.
Middling
Middling is the practice of betting on both possible outcomes for an event with little to no risk, giving the bettor a chance at a big windfall. Let’s go through an example.
Let’s say one sportsbook offers player bets on NFL props earlier than other betting sites. You use your favorite projections source to jump on the over on a rushing prop early and get nice odds, -115.
On Sunday morning, you comb through all of the possible outcomes for the same sporting event and notice that the rushing prop number has jumped significantly. That player’s prop is now eight yards higher. Some bookmakers will even offer alternate markets for these props and you could find odds on a bloated under that open up an arbitrage opportunity. You might decide, if you can find +115 or better, to just arb that line and give yourself a risk-free chance at your player’s rushing total landing directly in between those two numbers. If it doesn’t, you win or lose nothing. If it does, you win double the amount.
Bonus Bets
We talked earlier about using arbitrage to unlock bonus bets. You can also arb to make the most of these bonus bets in a risk-free fashion.
Say a site awarded you with a $100 bonus bet. You can bet that bonus bet on as one of your two bets and find the lowest-possible hold bet to harvest a high percentage of that bonus bet. Some websites offer calculators for harvesting bonuses using arbitrage. Instead of using them to place a “bet for free,” you can use arbitrage to harvest a high percentage of that bet at no risk.
So, we know what to do and what not to do. Where should we do it?
Best Sportsbook for Arbitrage Betting
What sportsbooks were the best targets when I used arbitrage betting? While things across the online gambling industry continue to evolve, I will share with you the betting sites that were the easiest to exploit and for what reasons.
BetMGM Sportsbook and any sites that used the same odds were the easiest odds to exploit in alternate markets. Each day, BetMGM would offer alternate over or under across a variety of sporting events that carried inefficient prices relative to the market. If a different site pegged an alternate over at -300, BetMGM could post the same offering for as low as -230. With that meant the odds for the underdog would always be very juicier for a high-yield arb.
Similarly, FanDuel Sportsbook offered very exploitable odds for many markets. Unfortunately, both betting companies caught on quickly because I was not careful with my sizing. FanDuel Sportsbook limited me in most obscure markets very quickly and capped my maximum earnings for any bet to a certain amount that has not changed since (I stopped using FanDuel). BetMGM outright limited my account completely. Promotions completely vanished and to this day I can’t bet more than a few dollars on any market offered on the site.
On the contrary, Caesars Sportsbook was a great book to use for larger bet sizing. For awhile I used arbitrage with low-hold bets to lose enough money to trigger the VIP program on DraftKings Sportsbook. I would purposely select sizable underdogs on DraftKings to bet hoping to lose and pair them with the favorite on Caesars Sportsbook. Despite winning most of those bets for larger sums, Caesars Sportsbook has not limited my action. Hopefully, this hasn’t changed by the next time I log in to my account.
The key is to be very mindful of how much money you are winning and losing on all sportsbooks. While there are many differing opinions, one way to be limited is to win too much money on a single platform very quickly.
Conclusion
In closing, arbitrage betting is a risk-free betting strategy used to guarantee a profit when sports betting. Before taking advantage of this fantastic approach, one should understand the basics and prepare the appropriate tools to employ this strategy. Before getting completely immersed, one must review the ways to manage your risk and avoid detection by bookmakers.
Using the methods mentioned in this article and avoiding red flags, any bettor can utilize arbitrage betting for guaranteed profit and enjoyment when betting on sports.