NFL Season Win Totals And Super Bowl Picks - RotoGrinders
(USA TODAY Sports)`Don’t look now but May is almost over. Soon NFL teams will be reporting to training camp. With the NFL Draft and primary free agency period behind us, NFL future odds likely won’t change much more before the start of the season, barring a major injury. Thomas Casale and Matt Schmitto break down their top season win totals, player props and Super Bowl futures for the 2019 season.
For more general NFL betting information, check out our NFL Football betting tips page.
Season Win Totals
Over
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 (Casale)
I’m all in on the Colts this year. Andrew Luck is my pick to win Most Valuable Player and General Manager Chris Ballard has turned the Colts into one of the NFL’s most talented rosters in just two years. The additions of Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell gives Indy a much-needed upgrade at receiver to go along with T.Y. Hilton.
The biggest surprise last season was how well the Colts’ offensive and defensive lines played and I expect both units to be even better in 2019. Frank Reich proved in his first season that he’s one of the NFL’s most innovative coaches. Add it all up and the Colts are an 11-12 win team. I expect them to be serious Super Bowl contenders this season.
Buffalo Bills 6.5 (Casale)
Sean McDermott may be the most underrated coach in the NFL. You realize this guy has won 15 games and went to the playoffs with Buffalo having arguably the worst quarterback play in the NFL the last two seasons? I wasn’t high on Josh Allen coming out of college and he was inconsistent as a rookie. However, he showed flashes and Allen is by far the most talented QB McDermott has had in Buffalo. Sorry Tyrod Taylor fans but he’s a JAG.
Buffalo spent the offseason surrounding its young signal caller with more weapons by adding receivers Cole Beasley, John Brown and Duke Williams (Former No. 1 recruit in the country and the CFL’s leading receiver). We know McDermott can coach defense, so if Allen and the offense can just be average, the Bills have a good chance to reach .500 this season.
Arizona Cardinals 5 (Schmitto)
I understand why the Cardinals’ hiring of Kliff Kingsbury is a bit perplexing to people, but I think the lack of confidence in the rookie head coach is overstated. There’s a lot of upside now that he’s paired with Kyler Murray. You’ll also see the Cardinals actually utilize David Johnson in the passing game once again. This is one of the two lowest win totals on the board and it didn’t change at all after Arizona drafted Murray at No. 1.
Unfortunately, the defense will have to figure out life without Patrick Peterson for at least six games. I don’t think they’re going to win eight games or anything like that, but I can definitely see them getting to six. Additionally, I’ll be sure to take a look at Kyler Murray to win Rookie of the Year, Murray’s rushing props, and Johnson’s receiving props.
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 (Schmitto)
The Eagles are good and Carson Wentz should be as healthy as we’ve seen him in a long time, but I’m mainly taking the Over here because of the division the Eagles are in. Between the New York Giants and the Washington Redskins, there’s plenty to take advantage of in the NFC East.
Outside of the division, they have games with the Jets, Bills, Dolphins, and Lions, two of which are at home. Overall, the Eagles are a solid team and have one of the easiest schedules in the league. I see them winning the division with 10 or 11 wins.
Under
Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 (Casale)
I’m on an island here but I expect the Chargers to regress this season. Philip Rivers is a still a stud but his play declined over the final month of last season. Rivers is going on 38. Not everyone can be Tom Brady and defy the aging process. The Chargers also had issues on the offensive line that Rivers often covered up.
When I look at futures, I take many different factors into account. One thing to consider with the Chargers is two of its biggest stars – DE Joey Bosa and RB Melvin Gordon – have trouble staying healthy. The Chargers do have a talented roster but I’m not sold on Anthony Lynn, who got outcoached badly by Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh late in the season.
With Rivers another year older and dealing with 19 kids, I can see Los Angeles being one of the biggest disappointments in 2019.
Carolina Panthers 8 (Casale)
The Panthers are dead, they just haven’t found the body yet. This is a franchise on decline after finishing 7-9 last season. Cam Newton had offseason shoulder surgery but my biggest issue with Carolina is the overall talent level has been in steady decline since its Super Bowl season, especially on defense. The Panthers allowed just under 24 points per game in 2018 and they lack depth on the defensive side of the ball.
Ron Rivera is a good coach who gets the most out of his players but the talent and depth simply isn’t there anymore. I can see the bottom falling out on the Panthers this season.
Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 (Schmitto)
The Chiefs have still yet to make a decision on Tyreek Hill — they should have cut him a long time ago — but regardless, Hill isn’t seeing the football field this year. That’s one of the biggest losses in the NFL if you ask me. Hill was arguably the most important receiver in the league last year.
The Chiefs’ defense parted ways with pass-rushers, Justin Houston and Dee Ford, along with their defensive coordinator. Steve Spagnuolo will bring in a 4-3 base defense, and I expect it to be more competent than last year. Still, 11 wins is a lot for any team no matter what you did the year before. Keep your eyes on props for Sammy Watkins. Someone is going to be asked to step up and make up for Hill’s missed production. Watkins certainly has some burst and is a deep-play threat. The biggest question for Watkins is if he can stay healthy throughout the season.
Oakland Raiders 6.5 (Schmitto)
I’m not a believer in John Gruden or Derek Carr. At first, I was one of the biggest haters of the Amari Cooper trade on behalf of the Cowboys. I was quickly proven wrong as we saw a huge difference in Cooper as soon as he started playing in Dallas. It’s not like Dak Prescott is some great quarterback either.
Sure, the Raiders drafted a bunch of guys, including two top-ten picks, and picked up Antonio Brown in the offseason, but I don’t think that gets them over the hump. Brown will be on the other side of 30 by the time the season starts. He’s not as big of a pick-up for the Raiders or a loss for the Steelers as the average NFL fan thinks. And by now, it’s pretty clear he was the problem in Pittsburgh, at least within the locker room. It won’t be long before there’s controversy between him and the Raiders organization. In short, I’m betting against Gruden any chance I get.
Super Bowl Futures
Casale: I already bet three teams to win the Super Bowl but the odds changed on two of them. When the lines first came out, I hit the Colts at 20/1 and Eagles at 18/1. Indianapolis is down to 10/1 and Philly is 14/1, so the value isn’t really there anymore. However, I still like both teams to be in contention if its quarterbacks stay healthy. These are two of the most talented rosters in the NFL from top to bottom, so I’ll gladly take a shot on them to win the Super Bowl.
I also grabbed the Steelers at 25/1. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are both excellent players but sometimes when teams get rid of headaches, they play better. The Steelers still have one of the most talented offensive teams in the AFC, even without Brown and Bell. Looking at purely value, Pittsburgh at 25/1 or 20/1 is tough to pass up. Should the Steelers beat the Patriots in Week 1, those odds will shorten to 8/1 or lower. Hop on the Steelers at this price before it’s too late.
Schmitto: All value is lost on the Cleveland Browns by now, which was my favorite pick when they were close to +3000 to win the Super Bowl. If I’m trying to find value then it’s going to be on the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers to win the Super Bowl this year. This is the first time in a long time that Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger have been around +2000 before the season starts.
The Packers made big moves in the offseason on defense and I think Mike Pettine is primed to have one of the better defenses in the league. I’m still a little skeptical about Rodgers’ weapons on offense. They’re one injury away (Davante Adams) from being in really bad shape, but any team with Rodgers has a chance to put up numbers. They might run the ball more this year but I love Davante Adams to have the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL.
As I mentioned when talking about the Raiders, I don’t think Brown leaving Pittsburgh was a huge loss for the Steelers. JuJu Smith-Schuster is great and will be able to play in the slot now that they signed Dionte Moncrief. I’m also bullish on James Washington. Cleveland is still the favorite to win the AFC North, but I like taking the Steelers to win the Super Bowl at +2200 and to make the playoffs at plus-money.