NFL Survivor Pool: How to Play, Strategy, & Tips to Win Your Contests
The 2021 NFL season is here, which means that office pools, including eliminator, survivor, and pick’em leagues are on many people’s minds once again. In preparation for the upcoming fall, we will be offering some advice and best practices for how to approach each of these formats. Here, let’s take a look at some useful information for eliminator and survivor tournaments.
NFL Survivor Pool Tips
Eliminator
Traditionally, eliminator tournaments require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 17 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal. Let’s take a look at a few strategies to help you prepare for the upcoming season.
The first question that all eliminator tournament participants must ask themselves is — how big is my tournament? If you are playing in a large pool, such as the ones offered by certified sportsbooks or major media websites such as ESPN, then there is a strong likelihood that the tournament will last through the end of the regular season. However, if you find yourself involved in a small office challenge, there is a strong possibility that the tournament could end long before December rolls around. This is an important question because it should impact how you approach the beginning of the season.
If playing in a large pool that you expect to last all year, you need to scout the schedule to find the best value pick for each week. For example, it seems enticing to pick a large favorite, such as the defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys, but then you will be unable to utilize Tom Brady and company for the rest of the fall slate of action. As tempting as it can be to start the campaign with an easy win, it could make far more sense to go with a smaller favorite in Week 1, who you might be hesitant to trust in October, should you be lucky to make it that far.
If playing in a smaller tournament, the goal should be to stay alive as long as possible by going with the elite teams every week in September and October. Many people try to devise a complicated strategy to win their office eliminator pool each year, only to choose a weaker team in Week 1, and end up immediately eliminated. If there are less than 100 people in your tournament, it makes far more sense to go with safe options earlier in the year and hope that your coworkers or friends struggle in their attempts to stay alive picking tougher matchups. There is also the possibility that a ‘weaker’ team turns into a strong team down the stretch–and you still have them available for use in late October or early November after they have gotten hot and settled into a groove.
Survivor
In survivor leagues, participants are typically required only to pick an NFL team to win each week straight up, and there are traditionally no constraints concerning picking the same team over and over again. For example, if a participant selected the Kansas City Chiefs each week and they went 17-0, that person would have escaped the regular season unscathed. While this type of tournament is often derided for being ‘too easy,’ there is still a considerable amount of strategy and research that should go into your selection each week.
Of course, there are some weeks when a team is a huge favorite, which makes that particular week an easy decision. In Week 8 last year, the Chiefs were 19.5 point favorites against the New York Jets and won that game 35-9. In these situations, do not overthink things by trying to be one of the few people who picks a different team that week. Enjoy the easy win and move on.
However, there are rarely such heavy favorites in the NFL, and it is always important to remember that even near double-digit favorites in the NFL are not a lock to earn a victory–especially when playing on the road. In Week 1 of the 2020 season, the Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, and the Philadelphia Eagles were upset, despite each being an eight point favorite or more. Thus, many participants did not even survive one week in this ‘too easy’ format last year.
As a best practice, you should start your research process by looking at the four or five largest spreads of the week, but still make sure to analyze injuries, travel schedules, and if there is any media attention that is causing the market to misprice the game. Winning a survivor pool is often a result of avoiding the deceptive upset. In general, favor home teams in non-division matchups. Also avoid prime-time and short-weeks if possible.