Top Golfers and Their Performance Under Adverse Conditions
When it comes to golf, skill and strategy are key drivers of success. Yet, Mother Nature also plays a crucial part, often shaking up tournament outcomes with unexpected weather conditions. In this roundup, we dive into how the top five golfers from each four major PGA tournaments—Augusta National Golf Club, Open Championship courses, PGA Championship courses, and U.S. Open courses—perform against these unpredictable forces. Focusing on weather scores and adjusted performance rankings, we uncover who thrives no matter the weather conditions.
We looked at how golfers performed in major PGA tournaments by factoring in the weather. We gave each tournament from 2022 to 2024 a weather score from 0 to 1, where 0 means perfect weather and 1 means really rough conditions. Then, we adjusted the golfers’ rankings based on how they did in those conditions and averaged the results to create an overall performance rank out of 100.
To make sure we nailed the impact of the weather on golfers, we got insights from Kevin Roth, Chief Meteorologist at Rotogrinders, a sports-weather expert who has been forecasting PGA events for over a decade:
“Weather is a hugely important factor in golf, perhaps more so than in any other sport because golfers tee off at different times. That means that one golfer may get ideal conditions, then later in the same day a cold front could bring extremely difficult conditions with rain and winds gusting over 30mph. While the rain does matter in golf, it takes a back seat to the impact that winds can have on a contest. Any time sustained winds reach over 15mph, or gusts start creeping to around 25mph or higher, we begin to see a significant impact on scoring. Temperature and humidity were also factored in to the weather scores, but neither can impact a tournament the way high winds can.”
Augusta National Golf Club Weather Score
Augusta National Golf Club brings its own set of challenges, but when you add unpredictable weather, it really tests the players. Looking at the tournament from 2022 to 2024, the weather scores show just how tough it got, going from 0.4737 in 2022 to 0.6065 in 2024, with 0 being perfect weather and 1 being the toughest conditions.
Before we dive into insights from the Chief Meteorologist at RotoGrinders about the weather scores at Augusta National Golf Club from 2022 to 2024, don’t forget to check out our exclusive Underdog Promo Code and Sleeper Promo Code pages.
Top 5 Standout Golfers at Augusta National Golf Club
Scottie Scheffler shined with an impressive "overall rank" of 100—a performance metric that combines both his final standings and how tough the weather was. No matter the conditions, he consistently delivered, proving he thrives when others struggle. At Augusta National, he maintained top scores even in the worst weather.
Collin Morikawa also stood out, especially in 2024. He earned a rank of 97.829, despite facing the challenging weather score of 0.6065 (where 0 is perfect weather and 1 is the toughest). He’s shown that he can handle tough conditions with resilience.
Cameron Smith had a solid performance too, posting an overall rank of 89.384. Though his year-to-year position results fluctuated more from positions going as low as 34 in 2023 and as high as third in 2022.
Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood handled the challenges pretty well, though their overall ranks of 88.522 and 86.350 suggest they were a bit more affected by the weather compared to players like Scheffler and Morikawa.
Open Championship Weather Score
The Open Championship had pretty consistent weather from 2022 to 2024, staying close to perfect compared to Augusta National Golf Club. The weather score only shifted slightly, from 0.3397 in 2022 to 0.3648 in 2024, showing minimal challenging conditions.
However, performances were a bit different for Scottie Scheffler. Despite the favorable weather at The Open Championship, his results didn’t quite match the dominance he showed at Augusta National.
Top 5 Standout Golfers at Open Championship
Xander Schauffele took the lead with an impressive "overall rank" of 100, which reflects both his final standings in the tournament and the level of difficulty from the weather. With a moderate weather score of 0.3648 from 2022 to 2024, he has consistently delivered strong performances.
Cameron Young also stood out, achieving a solid overall score of 97.144, showcasing his ability to maintain consistency throughout the tournaments.
While Jon Rahm didn't quite reach the same heights as Schauffele or Young, he still earned an overall rank of 95.364, proving he can hold his own under these conditions.
Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth also showed resilience, finishing with overall ranks of 93.261 and 91.752. Both players showed that they could compete under moderate weather with skill.
PGA Championship Weather Score
In 2022, golfers dealt with some moderate weather conditions, scoring a weather score of 0.290 (where 0 is perfect and 1 is the toughest). Fast forward to 2024, and the conditions were even better, with a lower weather score of 0.027.
Top 5 Standout Golfers at PGA Championship
Xander Schauffele achieved an overall rank of 100. This score reflects not only his final standings in the tournament but also how well he handled the weather at the PGA Championship.
Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland also put on impressive performances, with overall ranks of 98.774 and 98.765.
Collin Morikawa and Justin Rose also held their own, consistently balancing their performances over the years and securing overall ranks above 95.
US Open Weather Score
U.S. Open courses are known for their tricky layouts, making things tough for golfers, but the weather hasn’t been too bad. The weather scores showed minimal changes, going from 0.4392 in 2022 to 0.3508 in 2024, indicating that the conditions weren’t overly challenging for the athletes during those years.
Top 5 Standout Golfers at US Open
Rory McIlroy really stole the show with an impressive overall rank of 100. This score reflects not just his final standing in the tournament but also how well he tackled the tricky weather conditions.
Xander Schauffele wasn’t far behind, earning an overall rank of 92.564 and showing he can consistently perform well, even when the weather changes.
Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa also had solid outings, both finishing with overall ranks just above 90.
Hideki Matsuyama bounced back in 2024 after facing a tough 2023, where he ranked 32nd. He finished with an overall rank of 87.535, showcasing his ability to adapt to various weather challenges over time.
Methodology
This analysis looks at golfer performance by combining tournament results with weather conditions. We collected data on individual golfers' final standings in four major PGA tournaments and gathered weather info, including wind speed, rain, temperature, and humidity.
These metrics were turned into a weather score from 0 to 1, where 0 means perfect weather and 1 means the toughest conditions. We then adjusted the golfers' rankings based on these scores to create an "Adjusted Performance Score," reflecting how well they performed under challenging weather.
These scores were averaged over the years to generate an "Overall Rank" on a scale of 100, where higher numbers indicate better performance in tough conditions.
For the full dataset click here.