2015 NFL DFS: Positional EV
Hi, there. Tight End Flex, here. We’ve met before. I was that fleeting thought every couple weeks during the NFL Millionaire Maker contest when you passed over me for either a RB or (if you’re DFS veteran) a WR as the flex position.
I mean, I get it. You’re looking for an edge over the other contestants, and flex is the perfect opportunity for distinction. It’s the perfect time to choose that last piece of the puzzle to make your whole (the team) greater than the sum of its parts (each individual player). So you consider DraftKings’ full point PPR structure, and play it tried-and-true with a targeted, high valued WR as your flex. Production volatility works in your favor here, offering major upside.
Why are wide receivers so valuable in the flex slot? They frequently secure the ball, increasing the chance to gain yards, and put up more numbers. Most importantly, WRs score the most points in relation to their salaries. More so than running backs, even.
Check out the breakdown of expected value per position among NFL starters, below. I excluded non-starters (reserves) because if you ain’t stepping onto the field, you’re gonna dilute my data. So scram. Also, please note, variance here shows standard deviation pertaining to VALUE (neither salaries nor scores).
On average, QBs earn the largest salary, ($5,957), and score the most points, (18.2). They also pull the lowest variance at 1.41, proving a low ceiling and high floor.
As a whole, defenses secure the lowest salary, ($2,770), and offer best value ($493); however, they have the largest variance (2.16). High risk, high reward, my friends. In addition to WRs, volatility is an asset for DSTs, too, when factoring potential upside.
So what about my fellow TEs? At first glance, we tend to underperform as a group, not providing much value per dollar ($736). This is true on AVERAGE, because as a whole you shouldn’t expect much production from us. That’s not our top priority. Check the playbook. But among all positions, we have the second highest variance, (1.97), and nearly each week there’s a handful of breakout TEs who far exceed the TE stereotype. Look at the Top 10 Value Players Report: you’ll see a surprisingly large number of TEs.
Specifically, for Weeks 1 and 8, HALF (five out of ten) of the most valuable players are TEs. For Weeks 5 and 12, FOUR of the top players are TEs. And for Weeks 9 and 10, TEs appear on the MVP roster THREE times.
In terms of Optimal Lineup from last MM season, four of the 17-week season included TEs: Weeks 1, 5, 8, and 16. And from yet another vantage point, look at the players who offered the greatest value this year, below. Eight of the Top 20 top performers were TEs.
So you see? All I’m asking for is your consideration. Tight End Flexes got upside, too.