2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Buffalo Bills
As a nearly life-long Buffalo Bills fan who has been circling the wagons ever since NFL Primetime was the only way to really know what happened in a given a week, I am beyond pleased to preview the 2021 incarnation of the team. Josh Allen is the antithesis of the highly drafted QB busts taken since the Jim Kelly K-Gun ERA, including J.P. Losman and E.J. Manuel. He brings an electricity to the offense that has been paired with an explosive group of WRs, and a near lack of a run game. The combination is amazing for fantasy football, and when executed well fits the modern passing era of the National Football League.
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Buffalo Bills Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):11 (-120)
Games Favored:13
Games as a TD Favorite:9
Games as a TD Underdog:0
Now that Tom Brady has thankfully left the division, the Bills will entertain 6 AFC East games where the best opposing QB they will face is not actually known. Zach Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Cam Newton are the likely starters, and they all carry an element of the unknown. There is a small chance Mac Jones could unseat Newton if the Patriots play poorly, but realistically Newton is the only known commodity. Even if he plays well, it will be challenging for New England to win more than 1 of the two division games vs. the Bills. If you declare the Bills likely to go at least 4-2 in division thanks to uncertain QB play, then you’re asking for 8 Wins against the combination of the AFC South (inclusive of Houston and Jacksonville), NFC South (inclusive of Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans), and the Washington Football Team. If you chalk up 5 to 6 wins there, that means you need to get 3 wins against the combo PIT/KC/TB/IND/TEN and/or get more than 4 division wins. That is a probably but not guaranteed proposition.
Bottom Line: I like the over but I don’t love the over. 12-5 or better is the most likely record for the Bills at the end of the season, but there isn’t much margin for error. I’m betting a small ticket on this at Fanduel sportsbook right now, but I’m not willing to bet with the highest confidence level given the first place schedule and uncertainty of injury in the new 17 week season.
There is also a player prop I am currently considering outside the win total, and it’s Josh Allen finishing as the league leader in passing yards. As of now, Mahomes is leading our projections in expected passing yards, but any number of situations could narrow the small-ish gap between he and #2 Allen. FanDuel is offering +850 on this right now, and I’m going to ahead and bet that with some confidence. I think he’s better than 8/1 to pace the field, and the strength of schedule shown below helps to solidify that confidence.
Buffalo Bills Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:3
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Weak
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Elite
Projected Points Earned:455.5 (Rank 3)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:8
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:4
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:5
Team Defense Rank:14
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Average
Projected Points Allowed:378.75 (Rank 27)
The schedule sets up well for the passing yards prop for Allen I touted above. They face 8 (potentially) respectable run defenses with a run game that wouldn’t be expected to do much even against a softer schedule. Instead, we expect the Bills to throw it all over the place against a much less threatening schedule of pass game opponents using an elite passing game. I am bullish on any member of the WR group to meet or exceed expectations, and very bullish on the QB Allen.
In terms of the running game, they’ll return both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary to handle the bulk the duty. If I like anything here, it’s the potential for Singletary and offseason addition Matt Breida to do more work in the passing game. They failed to add a TE of meaningful stature (apologies to Jacob Hollister) , and this means to me that somebody like Breida could aid the passing yard totals of the team in 3rd down situations. The bottom line is that this group is ill-equipped to ground and pound, and we should be expecting single back sets and 3 to 4 WRS on nearly every single play they run the entire season. Once again, this is a reason to stay bullish on the passing game.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Josh Allen – Underdog Rank: QB2 (ADP QB2)
RB: Zack Moss – Underdog Rank: RB37 (ADP RB34)
RB: Devin Singletary – Underdog Rank: RB43 (ADP RB46)
WR: Stefon Diggs – Underdog Rank: WR1 (ADP WR2)
WR: Cole Beasley – Underdog Rank: WR62 (ADP WR63)
WR: Emmanuel Sanders – Underdog Rank: WR63 (ADP WR66)
TE: Dawson Knox – Underdog Rank: TE28 (ADP TE28)
What’s New?: Veteran Emmanuel Sanders joins the team and makes their 4 WR setup exceptionally dangerous. He hasn’t had it this good since Payton Manning was still throwing him spirals. He should lineup slot very often in 4 WR sets, and I have very little doubt the combo of Beasley and Sanders will be troublesome for opposing coordinators. The rest of the offense is basically identical to the 2020 team that reached the AFC championship, and their skills players are in great shape.
What’s Uncertain?: Can they get production from the TE? Dawson Knox fits the bill athletically but has yet to make his mark on the team, and he has had every opportunity to do that. The aforementioned Jacob Hollister has been playing well in training camp, and could very well jump up and claim the top receiving spot for them if Knox does not show out in preseason. At present we don’t expect the TE group for this team to be a meaningful presence in best ball on Underdog, and the uncertainty at TE only strengthens that initial assessment.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
You will have trouble drafting both Allen and Diggs on the same team since they both go very highly in drafts, but having either one is among the safest bets for production on the board. Diggs could very easily lead the league in either targets, yards, or touchdowns at the WR position.
Deeper down their depth chart, it’s hard to find a standout fantasy play. You could very easily get good returns on either Cole Beasley or Emmanuel Sanders, but the price tags are rising as the confidence level increases more and more on the Bills offense. Absolutely go get a piece of them, but just know there could be alternatives in the same area of the draft with more upward mobility that wouldn’t require an injury or as much luck to get there.
Image Credit: Imagn