2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Seattle Seahawks
It was a relatively quiet offseason for Seattle, especially when we are talking about the positions that make up the majority of fantasy football leagues. And considering that the Seahawks were 12-4 last season (disappointing playoffs notwithstanding), a quiet offseason isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Sure, they did what they could to improve on the margins, but this is still flat out going to be a whole lot of Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson.
Perhaps the biggest addition for the Seahawks is new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron. The main thing you are hearing out of camp from the Seattle players regarding Waldron is the increased tempo, but I’ll believe it when I see it considering Pete Carroll is still the head coach. For example, in 2020, the Seahawks averaged just 63.5 plays per game. That was good (bad) enough for 10th fewest in the league.
Waldron will spearhead an offense that averaged 28.7 points per game last season (8th most in the league), and our projections are expecting more of the same this season (see below). What about that defense though? They were middle of the pack in 2020, and then they capped off the season by allowing the lowly Rams offense to put up 30 points on them in the Wild Card Round (to be fair, seven of those were a Russell Wilson pick-six). Unfortunately, it’s hard to see them making a big jump in 2021 based on their personnel.
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Seattle Seahawks Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):10 (+100)
Games Favored:9
Games as a TD Favorite:4
Games as a TD Underdog:1
Despite coming off of a 12-4 record in 2020 (and having 17 regular season games now), oddsmakers have put Seattle’s Win Total at 10. Not only is that a little lower than I would have expected, but it also means they are pegged to be just the third best team in the NFC West behind the 49ers and the Rams. Man, that is some tough sledding right there.
On a brighter note, they (and the rest of the NFC West) are lined up with the AFC South this season. So, you can see above that they are touchdown favorites in four games this season. Two of those just so happen to be against AFC South teams, the Jags and the Texans. And while we are here, the other two are against NFC North teams, the Bears and the Lions.
Personally, my favorite bet for the Seahawks doesn’t involve wins, doesn’t involve divisions, and doesn’t involve Super Bowls. I think we just bet them to make the playoffs, plain and simple. I could easily see them going 10-7 (and thus resulting in you pushing your bet on the Win Total), finishing third in their division, and still cruising into the playoffs. When shopping around, I see this at -120 on BetMGM and -130 at shops like DraftKings and FanDuel. So, -120 it is!
PICK: Will the Seattle Seahawks reach the playoffs? – Yes (-120)
Seattle Seahawks Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:7
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Strong
Projected Points Earned:417.75 (Rank 12)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:9
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:3
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:6
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:5
Team Defense Rank:18
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Average
Projected Points Allowed:397.25 (Rank 20)
With all of Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson returning from a team that averaged almost 29 points per game last season, I doubt I will be able to tell you something about the Seahawks offense that you didn’t already know. We are projecting them to have the seventh best offense in the league, buoyed by a ‘strong’ pass offense and an ‘average’ rush offense. I suppose the Seahawks projecting to have an average, at best, offensive line (ranked 19th, per PFF) has a lot to do with their rush offense not jumping off the page. The passing offense, on the other hand, can easily be boosted by the wizardry of Russell Wilson, even if the o-line is a little leaky.
Where things get a little hairy for this Seahawks team is on the defensive side of the ball. Our team projections net out to them being average both overall and in their respective rush/pass defense ratings. But when you zoom in on their individual units, things look quite linebacker-heavy, you might say. Take a look at these rankings, per PFF:
Defensive line – 29th
Linebackers – 2nd
Secondary – 26th
Good thing they have Bobby Wagner, huh?
Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Russell Wilson – Underdog Rank: QB10 (ADP QB6)
RB: Chris Carson – Underdog Rank: RB15 (ADP RB17)
RB: Rashaad Penny – Underdog Rank: RB62 (ADP RB55)
WR: D.K. Metcalf – Underdog Rank: WR7 (ADP WR6)
WR: Tyler Lockett – Underdog Rank: WR14 (ADP WR19)
WR:D’Wayne Eskridge – Underdog Rank: WR98 (ADP WR87)
TE: Gerald Everett – Underdog Rank: TE26 (ADP TE15)
What’s New?: Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron
See below.
What’s Uncertain?: Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron
I am combining this into one, because the Waldron addition was arguably the most meaningful change to the offense in the offseason. And yet, it still brings with it the most uncertainty.
Without any preseason games having been played at the time I am writing this, we can really only read the tea leaves at this point. And the main things you hear from the players are 1) playing at a quicker tempo, and 2) more pre-snap motion.
That’s all fine and good, but how is Waldron’s presence ultimately going to affect the fantasy production? That is what we really care about when it comes down to it. Is Russell Wilson still going to be a boss? After they both finished 2020 with a 24% target share, will one of the Metcalf – Lockett duo overwhelmingly emerge as being THE GUY? Or are we going to get an even heavier than expected dose of Chris Carson?
Unfortunately, for now, it all remains to be seen.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Image Credit: Imagn