2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: New Orleans Saints Odds, Projections
The post-Drew Brees era in New Orleans is off to a rocky start, and preseason games haven’t even kicked off yet! The Saints could be without their top receiver, Michael Thomas, for as much as the first half of the season — an injury that may ultimately dictate who wins the starting quarterback job ahead of the Saints’ Week 1 matchup with the Packers.
I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news, Saints fans. I’ve got plenty of good news, too,. If you live in Louisiana, you will FINALLY be able to play NFL DFS this football season! Though late to the party, daily fantasy sports have finally arrived in Louisiana. Better late than never! Read more about Louisiana DFS and make sure to use the link below to sign up at DraftKings if you haven’t already.
Be sure to check out all the great sports betting, fantasy football, and DFS content available on RotoGrinders leading up to kickoff. We’ll be covering fantasy football with rankings and projections, DFS preseason with RotoGrinders Premium, and sports betting at RG and ScoresAndOdds.
New Orleans Saints Odds, Betting Preview
Win Total (over):9 (-115)
Games Favored:11
Games as a TD Favorite:1
Games as a TD Underdog:1
According to NFL lookahead lines, four of the Saints’ first five games project within a field goal. The Saints are favored against the Packers and at Carolina before traveling as small underdogs to New England in Week 3. Their easiest matchup is a home game against the Giants in Week 4. Then they play what should be a challenging test against Washington, one of the league’s best defenses, before their Week 6 bye. It’s entirely possible that the Saints may be a bottom-third offense for as long as Thomas is out. His injury makes Saints projections a difficult task, but, regarding their rang 2021 range of outcomes, there’s no doubt it dramatically lowers their floor.
As a bettor, do you trust Jameis Winston throwing to Tre’quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Adam Trautman? How much better do you feel about a Thomas-less offense with Taysom Hill beneath center? The latter foreshadows a game plan that features a heavy dose of running. I don’t feel great betting on either.
With so much uncertainty plus a significantly lower floor than we had envisioned before the unfortunate Thomas news, I don’t have any interest in backing Saints NFL futures. Instead, I’m heading to BetMGM Sportsbook to bet on the Packers +2.5 in Week 1 and the Saints Under 9 total wins.
New Orleans Saints Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:15
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Strong
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Average
Projected Points Earned:433.5 (Rank 11)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:6
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:4
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:5
Team Defense Rank:10
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Average
Projected Points Allowed:409.5 (Rank 14)
The Saints currently have the no. 15 projected offense, but in their production could finish far lower. On the flip side, I don’t see this roster drastically exceeding expectations — it’s much more likely they finish 20th or worse than 10th or better.
Also, don’t automatically assume Kamara’s fantasy stock gets a boost with Thomas hurt. If Saints head coach Sean Payton decides to go run-heavy, he’ll do so with Hill at quarterback, thus taking a share of Kamara’s touchdown equity. Regardless of who is playing quarterback, opposing defenses don’t have to worry so much about big plays downfield and can prioritize slowing down the elusive New Orleans running back.
It’s a scary time to be a Saints fan, bettor, or fantasy investor.
New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Taysom Hill – Underdog Rank: QB28 (ADP QB28)
RB: Alvin Kamara – Underdog Rank: RB6 (ADP RB4)
RB: Latavius Murray – Underdog Rank: RB41 (ADP RB41)
WR: Michael Thomas – Underdog Rank: WR48 (ADP WR27)
WR:Tre’Quan Smith – Underdog Rank: WR57 (ADP WR60)
WR: Marquez Callaway – Underdog Rank: WR64 (ADP WR82)
TE: Adam Trautman – Underdog Rank: TE10 (ADP TE13)
What’s New?: Brees-less Locker Room
For the first time in 15 years, Drew Brees won’t be in the Saints locker room. In 2020, it was clear Brees was in decline. He struggled to stay healthy and lost velocity on throws downfield. The future Hall of Famer took the hint, deciding to ride off into the sunset after being defeated by the ageless wonder Tom Brady in the divisional playoffs. It was clearly time for Brees to call it quits, but now Sean Payton must decide who will lead the Saints in the post-Brees era.
What’s Uncertain?: Quarterback & Extent of Thomas’ Injury
Taysom Hill started four games in 2020, while Jameis Winston threw only 11 passes. The Saints fared well with Hill, as the quarterback won three consecutive games before losing to Philadelphia. What we didn’t see, though, is what a Hill-led offense would look like without a true no. 1 receiver. During those four weeks, Thomas caught 37 of the quarterback’s 82 completions — 41 percent! Throws toward Thomas accounted for only seven of Hill’s 36 incompletions.
Winston under center undoubtedly benefits Saints receivers, particularly Tre’quan Smith and Marquez Callaway. It’s also like better for Alvin Kamara. However, Latavius Murray will get the biggest boost if Payton chooses Hill and a run-heavy playbook. Murray could receive as many as 10-15 carries per game while Thomas is out if that’s the case. During Hill’s first two starts in 2021, Murray carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards against Atlanta and then racked up 124 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries against the Broncos.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, Tre’quan Smith, Adam Trautman
Image Credit: Imagn