2022 American Express Golf Odds & Betting Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2022-01-19 19:34:41

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting picks for the 2022 American Express. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Happy New Year, golf fans, bettors, daily fantasy players, and enthusiasts alike. While skipping the first couple of events on the 2022 PGA schedule, we open this season’s articles with the 2022 American Express. Last weekend, Hideki Matsuyama overcame a Russell Henley weekend lead to win the Sony Open. Nobody here had a Russell Henley ticket… I swear. In any event, Hideki put together quite possibly his best putting performance ever. Congratulations to him and to Cameron Smith for opening the season with a record-setting performance at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

2022 American Express Odds

At the time of this writing — the evening of January 18th — BetMGM posts the following outright odds. The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 50/1.

Jon Rahm headlines a relatively strong field for an early-season event. Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, and Tony Finau will tee it up while Si Woo Kim will look to defend his title from last season. Russell Henley will look to atone for coughing up my victo… I mean his victory last weekend.

American Express Betting Preview

• Course: PGA West & La Quinta Country Club
• Date: January 20 – 23
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,159 (longest)
• Greens: Bermuda

A unique setup, the American Express will be played across three courses in California as the PGA continues its early-season West Coast swing. 156 players will take their crack at PGA West — Stadium Course and Nicklaus Tournament Course — and La Quinta Country Club. All of the courses are a Pete Dye design and are relatively short. The longest — Nicklaus Tournament Course — measures at 7,159 yards.

After all of the players play each of the three courses over the first three rounds, 65 players (and ties) will make the final round on Sunday played at the Stadium Course. Length will not be a concern at this tournament and scoring will be plentiful.

Instead of length, I will be emphasizing (no surprise) SG: Approach and stats such as Fairways Gained or Driving Accuracy. Birdie-or-better % and putting will factor in as will players’ histories on Pete Dye designs.

Without further adieu, let’s take a look at this week’s betting card with bets made in units.

American Express Betting Picks

Seamus Power +4000 (Bet365)

While the upper tier of golfers is extremely appetizing, especially the likes of Pete Dye expert, Patrick Cantlay, I cannot grab outright at these short prices. Instead, I want to move down the board a bit and start my card in the upper-midrange of golfers this week and fill my card with longshots, afterward. We start this week with a gentleman who is making a name for himself on the PGA Tour, Seamus Power.

Power ranks third over his last 50 rounds in strokes gained overall in this field. His game is very well-rounded with very few leaks in his recent form. Last week at the Sony Open, Power closed well on Sunday, finishing in 3rd place and gaining 10.7 strokes on the field in the process.

Power ranks in the top ten in putting over his last 50 rounds and matches that effort on Pete Dye designs. Power seems to be a breakout candidate this year on tour as he continues to play in stronger fields than he was accustomed to in 2021. I am going to wager a full unit on Power this week at Bet365.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (DraftKings)

After checking the spelling four times, I am very confident that Christiaan Bezuidenhout is correct and a perfect fit for this week’s card. Speaking of players looking to break out this season, Bezuidenhout is a fine fit for this tournament.

In the preview, I mentioned that length is not a big concern at the American Express. The only glaring deficiency in Bezuidenhout’s game is his off-the-tee game — an issue mitigated by the awfully small yardage total across all three courses. Scoring is of paramount importance and nobody in the field has rolled the rock as effectively over his last 50 rounds as C-Bez.

Bezuidenhout leads the field in putting over his last 50 rounds and approaches the top on Pete Dye courses. His short game is elite and C-Bez should create several opportunities for his putter to convert. I love the price at DraftKings Sportsbook. At 60/1, a half unit will do.

Alex Noren +6500 (DraftKings)

Similarly designed, Alex Noren enters the field as a short-game specialist that can take advantage of gained opportunities with the flat stick. Noren has modest success in his two starts at The Amex — finishing in 40th and 14th over his two appearances.

Noren ranks in the top ten in putting (3rd) over his last 50 rounds. He ranks 1st in SG: Par 3 in the field — demonstrating a precision required to make a run in a festival of golf scoring. At this price, I can get more out of a half-unit than I would with the expensive cost of the top tier. If Jon Rahm comes out and Jon Rahms… then I lose.

I think Noren will be an appealing DFS play as well — priced with the likes of Si Woo Kim. This season, I am dedicating most of my daily fantasy efforts towards 20-lineup builds. Noren should be low-owned enough to get way over the field with just a few entries. Either way, I will take a half-unit at DraftKings as I make my way down the betting board.

Brendon Todd +12000 (FanDuel)

Finally, let’s crack open our first longshot of the 2022 season. Brendon Todd will be a quarter-unit play, returning a similar windfall as the other golfers on my card at a very, very affordable price. Brendon Todd should be a long shot as he lacks the ball-striking ability of most of his peers. However, with courses being so much shorter for this event, Todd’s lack of length is not as big a factor this weekend.

Instead, his proficiency on Par 4s (8th in SG) and with the putter (13th in SG) should make him a candidate to pay off a long set of odds. He has a middling history at the Amex, but a strong 6th place finish in 2014. Obviously, the variance is very high, which is why the risk total is very low. A quarter-unit on FanDuel will do just fine.

American Express Betting Card

Good luck with all of your wagers this week. I will see you next week.

Image Credit: Imagn