2022 Farmers Insurance Open Golf Odds & Betting Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2022-01-25 16:28:15

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting picks for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Last weekend, Seamus Power gave us a sweat from the close of the third round of the American Express to early Sunday afternoon. That sweat lasted two holes, as Seamus went +3 to start the day and never even came too close to eventual winner Hudson Swafford — he who shot -8 on Sunday to earn his third PGA Tour victory. This week, scoring should finally be tempered down at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open.

2022 American Express Odds

At the time of this writing — the evening of January 24th — BetMGM posts the following outright odds. The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 50/1.

The field for this week’s Farmers Insurance Open brings back some of the star power we witnessed a few weeks ago at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Jon Rahm returns to one of his favorite courses at Torrey Pines — the site of his US Open Championship last year. Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau look to return to form as Dustin Johnson tees it up at The Farmers for the first time since 2017.

The 2021 champion, Patrick Reed is priced very favorably likely because of his current form. Finally, Tony Finau brings an extremely strong resume to Torrey Pines this weekend — finishing in the top ten four of his last five starts at the event.

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview

• Course: Torrey Pines South & North (one round)
• Date: January 26 – 29 (Wednesday start)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,765 (South), 7,258 (North)
• Greens: Poa Annua (South), Bentgrass (North)

Thank goodness, we are done with the multiple course tournaments without a shot link for this season. Wait, what? Checks notes…. Right. The Farmers Insurance Open will play across the South and North courses at Torrey Pines. 156 golfers will play both courses over the first two days (Wednesday & Thursday) but will play both rounds at Torrey Pines South if they make the cut.

Torrey Pines South is pretty, pretty long. Players will finally swing 4-irons and 5-irons this week with three Par 3’s exceeding 200 yards, seven Par 4’s exceeding 450 yards, and two Par 5’s greater than 600 yards on the card — at the South course. The North course is where players will look to gain as many birdies as possible as it plays significantly shorter. Those of you who love to add a bit of DFS Golf action to your weekly portfolio might consider stacking North course players for either of the first two showdown slates.

Since the course is so long, driving distance will be a factor for me this week. While Patrick Reed was able to win last year without length, he also gained north of 8 strokes around the green throughout the tournament. So, there is a path to victory for shorter hitters but length will be very important as thick kikuyu grass all over will make finding green challenging without length. The course will not play as difficult as a US Open format but will surely play more difficult than the previous few weeks on tour.

As always, SG: Approach is important. I will definitely look at Bogey Avoidance this week and Scrambling this week. Finally, I will at least filter the field for putting on poa greens to see who pops over their last 50 rounds. Let’s take a look at who I am targeting on this week’s betting card.

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Picks

Tony Finau +3000 (Bet365)

This number on Bet365 is extremely appealing to me given he is widely 25/1 across the sports betting industry. Finau’s history in this event is very difficult to ignore and his current form is just fine. He has two events under his belt when a handful of his peers will be making their first start on tour this week.

We know that Finau has an abundance of length. After his win at the Northern Trust at the close of last season, Finau is still not priced as one of the elite despite showing a penchant for landing in the top ten. Given the focus on length this week, I think we can start our card here. As I mentioned last week, if one of the shorter-priced golfers (Rahm, Thomas, etc…) win the tournament, then we lose this week. I would not be shocked but prefer to take the value offered to other golfers because Jon Rahm is in the field.

Putting is definitely not Tony’s strong suit, but he does see a bit of any improvement on poa greens relative to his normal strokes gained numbers. I am going to grab Tony for a full unit this week and hope he cashes in his history of top tens for a victory at Torrey Pines.

Will Zalatoris +3300 (Caesars)

With driving distance a common theme on my card this week, I am going to add Will Zalatoris. The upstart famously performed extremely well at this event as a debutant last year — landing a top ten finish on his way to a very strong rookie season. The price on Zalatoris has crept up a bit. We could have grabbed him when odds were released in some spots at closer to 40/1 but I am still interested in his Caesars number.

Zalatoris combines great length with an excellent approach game — ranking 5th in the field in SG: Approach over his last 50 rounds. No surprise, Zalatoris ranks in the top 20 in strokes gained on Par 4s between 450-500 yards — a very popular length on the South course.

The Caesars price can be found under their “Odds Boost” section under the Futures tab. Luckily for me, a full unit does not exceed their max bet so I am going to play a unit there.

Luke List +8000 (FoxBet)

Length, length, and more length. Luke List makes the card this week with some strong recent form and an impressive history at Torrey Pines.

List played very well during the fall swing — grabbing a 10th and 11th in November before finishing 22nd in last weeks American Express. More importantly, List boasts four consecutive made cuts at this event with last year being a top ten. List has yet to win a PGA Tour event but seems like a good fit for the lengthy South course at Torrey Pines.

With List, like many golfers, the putter is the big question mark. At the Houston Open, List gained 13.2 strokes on the field from tee-to-green but lost 5.8 strokes putting. Yikes. If Luke can keep it together or just gain marginally on the field, he could be in contention on Sunday.

For the best number, I am going to bet a 1/2 unit on FoxBet at 80/1.

Jhonattan Vegas +11000 (DraftKings)

To close out the all distance card for this week, I am going to put a few shekels on one of my favorites, Jhonattan Vegas. Vegas finished third in his debut at the Farmers in 2011. Since, then, his track record fits the profile of a longshot golfer with upside to win a tournament.

This play is purely pinned on Vegas’ game off-the-tee on and approach. Length will not be a concern but Vegas will need to create opportunities with his irons. His short game leaves plenty to be desired as he is in the bottom half of the field in SG: Putting, ARG, and scrambling. Yet, at this price tag, I think a 1/4 unit is worth the speculation.

His price varies a lot — as many longshots do — across online betting sites. He seems to be anywhere from 80/1 to the tag presented here. If you are going to take the longshot, don’t leave the equity on the table. Give me Vegas for a 1/4 unit on DraftKings.

2022 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Card

2022 Profit in Units: -2.25 units

I will update my card with any additions by Tuesday evening. Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along and share your plays. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn