The Masters Betting Trends: Four Picks to Win at Augusta in 2023
2023 Masters Betting Trends Preview
Some will say that this is the best golf week of the year, but for me it takes the cake for any week.
Depending on the winner of the Valero Texas Open, there will be 88 or 89 golfers in the field for this year’s renewal of the greatest golf tournament on earth. I’ll go as far as calling this the greatest golf tournament in the universe. If there are aliens out there, I’m positive that they have nothing on Augusta National Golf Club.
Let me start off by saying that I’m not the biggest believer in betting trends. The first reason is that most trends are arbitrary. In order to get the end results you are looking for, you can bend the trends to fit certain timeframes. You can ignore one trend while factoring in another. And most importantly, correlation does not always imply causation. I always laugh at trends that are truly a reach, such as the Denver Nuggets are 19-3 against the spread on the third Tuesday of each month. I mean, common sense needs to win out at some point. The second reason is that trends are made to be broken. There will always be outliers, which is why we love sports as much as we do.
With that out of the way, I do love writing this Masters betting trends piece each year. This is one of the few golf courses where I actually believe the trends can point us in the right direction when it comes to picking a winner. It’s also a lot of fun starting with a list of 88 golfers and slowly crossing off names until there are only a few left. I’ve scoured the internet for all of the Masters trends that I could find and I’ve even come up with a few of my own based on the past winners. I have selected 11 trends that I thought could have some credence for helping us find the 2023 winner.
And as always, if you don’t live in a state with legal sports betting, you can still get in on the Masters action via DFS Pick’em and our PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS. You can also get in on the Best Ball action with our Underdog promo code.
Masters Betting Trends
- No debutant has won since Fuzzy Zeller (1979)
- 9 of the last 10 winners were under the age of 40 (Tiger)
- 10 of the last 10 winners were in the top 35 in the OWGR
- 13 of the last 14 winners posted a top 30 at a previous Masters
- 7 of last 10 winners had a top five at a previous Masters
- Only 3 players have ever won the back-to-back Masters (Tiger, Jack, Faldo)
- 10 of the last 10 winners had a top 20 in their last three events
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a top five in their last five events
- 9 of the last 10 winners were in the top 65 in SG: ATG the year they won
- 9 of the last 10 winners were in the top 85 in Distance the year they won
- 9 of the last 10 winners were in the top 65 in SG: OTT the year they won
Let’s dive right in, shall we?
Trend #1 – 9 of the last 10 winners had a top five in their last five events
Rather than going through these trends in order, I thought we could save some time by starting with a trend that will eliminate a large portion of the field. Form is essential if you are going to win the Masters. Even the outlier winners here over the years have had good form coming into the event. The fact that nine of the last 10 winners of the Masters had a top five finish in one of their previous five starts shows that you can’t show up and hope to find your game at Augusta National.
This trend alone eliminates 51 golfers from the field. Sadly, Tiger Woods is on this list. If there was ever a golfer that could break any trend, it is Tiger Woods. However, for our purposes, get the big cat out of here. Some of the other big names that didn’t make the cut with this trend are Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, and Matthew Fitzpatrick.
Trend #2 – No debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zeller in 1979
I’d be very surprised to see this trend get broken given the fact that there aren’t any elite golfers making their debut at Augusta National this year. This trend kicks Mito Pereira, Kurt Kitayama, Taylor Moore, Adrian Meronk, and Kazuki Higa to the curb.
Just like that, we are down to 31 golfers.
Trend #3 – 10 of the last 10 winners were in the top 35 in the OWGR
In the past, this trend has made a lot of sense. You have to be one of the best in the world in order to win at Augusta National. However, this year is a bit different because the golfers that left for the LIV Tour haven’t been accruing OWGR points since they jumped ship. I’m sticking with the trend because it helps eliminate a lot of names from the list, but a few of these golfers would likely still be in the top 35 if they didn’t join LIV. The number one synonym for “tough luck” on Urban Thesaurus is “tough nuggies.”
From LIV, say goodbye to Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Louis Oosthuizen, Sergio Garcia. Tough nuggies, LIV crew.
From the PGA Tour, say au revoir to Harris English, Mackenzie Hughes, and Keith Mitchell.
Only three trends in and we have already cut down the list to 24 golfers.
Trend #4 – 13 of the last 14 winners had a top 30 at a previous Masters
Course history matters at Augusta National. You have to know the slopes and breaks, you have to know when to be patient, you have to know when to attack, and you have to know where to miss. It’s no surprise that almost every winner of the Masters had a good result at the event prior to winning it.
It’s not me, it’s you. Sorry, Cameron Young, Joaquin Niemann, Max Homa, Sam Burns, and Tom Hoge.
Let me do some napkin math here — carry the five, add the two, and I believe we have 19 golfers left.
Trend #5 – 9 of the last 10 winners were top 65 in SG: OTT that year
Once again, LIV throws a wrench into another trend. We don’t have any statistics from the LIV Tour and even if we did, we wouldn’t be able to trust them. For the LIV golfers, I decided to use last year’s statistics. For everyone else, we are using this year’s statistics. Golfers that aren’t in the top 65 in strokes gained off the tee are Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Kirk, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, and Cameron Smith (2022).
The two big names to get cut here are Spieth and Schauffele. Spieth obviously loves Augusta National and could easily win another green jacket, but we have to stick with our trends. It’s surprising to see Schauffele on this list, but losing 6.6 strokes off the tee at THE PLAYERS and the API will hurt your season-long numbers.
We are now down to 11 golfers.
Trend #6 – 9 of the last 10 winners were top 65 in SG: ATG that year
Hitting greens is important at Augusta National, but everyone is going to miss greens throughout the course of the four rounds. Being able to scramble is huge at the Masters. The golfers that are outside of the top 65 in strokes gained around the green are Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, and Abraham Ancer (2022).
Most of these golfers have struggled around the green this year with the exception of Cantlay. He’s currently 84th on tour, gaining 0.56 strokes per round around the green. I thought about making an exception for him, but he would get cut on the another trend anyway.
We are officially down to five golfers.
Trend #7 – No golfer has defended his Masters title since 2002
Do with this what you will, but only three golfers have ever won back-to-back Masters: Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, and Nick Faldo. Tiger was the last to accomplish this feat and that was 21 years ago. If we are looking to narrow down the list, I suppose we can cross off Scottie Scheffler. It doesn’t feel great, but we are trying to be objective.
2023 Masters Picks
- Rory McIlroy
- Jon Rahm
- Justin Thomas
- Jason Day
All four have a previous five at the Masters, all four are in the top 85 in driving distance, and all four have a top 20 in one of their last three stroke play events. I was hoping to get a random name or two to make the final list to spice things up a bit, but I like the final four and they check every single box that we threw at them.
Did we find the winner? Only time will tell. If Rahm, McIlroy, Thomas, or Day don the green jacket on Sunday, consider me a huge supporter of trends. If a different golfer wins, remember that trends are made to be broken, they are just fun anecdotes, and they shouldn’t be relied on.
In all seriousness, this article was fun to put together and I appreciate you joining me for the ride. Good luck with your bets this week at the Masters and make sure to check out all of our great premium content for DFS as well as my final betting card, which can be found at ScoresAndOdds.com