2024 Open Championship Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-07-16 11:39:05

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus for PGA Pick’em today!

The Genesis Scottish Open brought our fourth outright victory of the season. Robert MacIntyre claimed his national open with an unforgettable winning putt on the 72nd hole, adding money to our coffers and additional futures considerations heading into this week at Royal Troon Golf Club. The 2024 Open Championship is our next stop with the world’s best taking a crack at the last major of the year. Let’s break down the field, betting odds, and the golf course before going over our golf betting picks for The Open Championship.

2024 Open Championship Odds

At the time of this writing – July 15th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 60/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Open Championship:

• 2023 – Brian Harman (-13)
• 2022 – Cameron Smith (-20)
• 2021 – Collin Morikawa (-15)
• 2019 – Shane Lowry (-15)
• 2018 – Francesco Molinari (-8)
• 2017 – Jordan Spieth (-12)
• 2016 – Henrik Stenson (-20)

A total of 156 players will tee it up at Royal Troon Golf Club in Scotland. The top 70 and ties will play the weekend in what should be the last great test of 2024. In 2016, Henrik Stenson outlasted Phil Mickelson in an epic showdown on Sunday to win his first major. Both men will be in the field as former champions like Tiger Woods, Louis Oosthuizen, Darren Clarke, and John Daly.

However, the main roster consists of the usual suspects — Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and others. McIlroy in particular will attract the most eyeballs, as he attempts to win his first major in eleven years. Off a solid performance at the Genesis Scottish Open, Rory will look to improve the putting en route to a big victory.

Let’s take a look at Royal Troon.

The Open Championship Betting Tips & Preview

• Course: Royal Troon Golf Club
• Date: July 18 – 21
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,385
• Greens: Bentrgrass

Royal Troon Golf Club features like Royal Liverpool with smaller greens and fairways. The greens are tiny relative to other Open Championship venues and are very fast. With smaller greens, the approach game will be paramount as golfers look to hit greens. Conversely, lag putting will not be as important as scrambling around greens. Creativity will be required with so many options available on a links course.

The fairways are small and fast with pot bunkers and gorse bushes eating up golf balls and strokes when golfers are errant off the tee. Distance will help along with a solid position off the tee. Depending on the weather, the course is designed to play tougher in certain spots because of wind direction. If winds are dormant, the longer hitters who can keep the ball in play will be aided. The course is set up for birdies if the weather isn’t bad.

In 2016, the weather was a problem, and several golfers were completely wiped out of the tournament because of their weather draw. Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson were the only golfers to get to double digits under par while the others followed in single digits. Rory McIlroy finished at -4 and finished inside the top ten. Before locking in your betting card, daily fantasy golf lineups, or one-and-done selections, check out the weather report.

Since 2016, the course was lengthened, and three new bunkers were added — taking the tally up to 98. The sixth hole has 22 additional yards to reach 623 yards — the longest hole in Open Championship history. While this is a par five, the hole will still challenge players unless the prevailing wind is behind the players.

Another notable hole is the “Postage Stamp” — the par 3 eighth hole. The hole measures 123 yards from an elevated tee box and is surrounded by pot bunkers. Depending on the tee box and wind direction, players could hit a flip wedge or a full club. The green is so tiny and will leave plenty of trouble for players who don’t land in regulation.

One of the more challenging tests for players will be “The Railway” — the eleventh hole. With the entire right side of the hole and out-of-bounds railroad, players must hit a great tee shot to keep the ball in play. As if the hardest hole on the PGA TOUR in 2016 was not hard enough, the hole was lengthened for this tournament, and the wind generally pushes the ball to the right. Good luck, guys.

Pot bunkers and gorse bushes serve as penalty areas, as players will normally be taxed a stroke just to put the golf ball back in a playable position. While accuracy is important, players will club down on many holes to avoid problems. Decision making is crucial at this event, as avoiding danger is just as important as scoring.

The course is broken into three parts, called “Heaven, Purgatory, and Hell.” The first six holes are normally downwind and present the best scoring opportunities for players with far less trouble in front of them. The second stretch of six holes represents a more challenging purgatory where players begin playing into winds that will cause bad position off the tee — sometimes bringing pot bunkers and gorse bush areas into play. The final six holes represent a hell that players hope to survive, often holding on for dear life to score pars and not hemorrhage strokes. If conditions are bad on the weather front, no lead is safe. The seventeenth hole is a par 3 ranging up to 242 yards into the wind. Don’t cash any tickets until your golfer is in a warm clubhouse.

Six of the last seven winners of the British Open at Royal Troon have been Americans, with Henrik Stenson breaking the streak in 2016. The typical narrative that emphasizes European players as better fits for links golf courses might not be true at this course. For that reason, we can approach this week with a bit more creativity and try to focus on recent form and play instead of experience over the pond. Here are some categories we will highlight when we make golf betting decisions this week:

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• SG: Putting
• Scrambling
• SG: Par 5
• SG: ARG
• GIR
• Opportunities Gained

We truly want to concentrate on the approach game on a course with such tiny greens. Let’s discuss my futures bets and the rest of my betting card for this week’s Open Championship.

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The Open Championship Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Rory McIlroy +900 (ESPN BET)

If you read this article the last few weeks, you would know that I made a concerted effort to push all of my promotional bets onto Rory to win this event. While Rory is typically posted at odds that I don’t bet, I didn’t mind stacking up “free” bets on him to earn better odds. We hope Rory is here to atone for his finish at the U.S. Open and hoist the Claret Jug as the conclusion of a made-for-Netflix redemption arc.

Before the Scottish Open, I amassed 200 units on Rory McIlroy to win this week for a total cost of about 5 units (arbitrage, risk-free promos, deposit bonuses). When Robert MacIntyre won our fourth outright bet of the season last weekend, he also hit the first leg of a double I placed with Rory McIlroy to win The Open Championship; 1.25 units was the cost of all of the doubles from last week’s betting card.

The parlay is worth another 100 units. So we have 300 units on Rory McIlroy to win the 2024 Open Championship for about 6.25 units of our own money. Through promotional betting, we bet Rory at 48-1 instead of 7-1.

The volume of luck required to win a third futures bet at a major tournament is truly unreal. With that said, Rory winning this week would be the biggest golf outright win for me by miles. For this week and maybe this week only, we are Team Rory.

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (BetMGM)

After securing the 200 units on Rory McIlroy with promotional betting, I shifted any additional promo bets to Tommy Fleetwood. While Royal Troon shouldn’t necessarily favor European golfers, I am a big sucker for Tommy Fleetwood.

Fleetwood has been a big tournament player this year, finishing inside of the top twenty of recent high-profile events on the PGA TOUR. He finished third at Augusta National and more recently 16th at Pinehurst. He boasts three T10 finishes in the last four Open Championships. We will give him a pass for missing the cut at Royal Troon in 2016 and hope the weather doesn’t take him out of play this season.

In any event, I landed 190 units on Tommy to win The Open Championship at the cost of seven units (risk-free bets, bet and gets). The odds were pretty close to his current odds, then, at 27-1. Unlike Rory, I tried to win a few bets during International Soccer competitions that would return free bets regardless of the outcome. The outcome, of course, did not land on my side.

Viktor Hovland +3300 (BetMGM)

Viktor Hovland is a European golfer with a penchant for American courses that require excellent ball striking. Hovland missed the cut at the U.S. Open but has three T20 finishes at The Open including his fourth place finish in 2021 at St. Andrews. Hovland is best known for his driving and approach game and will be among the elite ball strikers in this week’s field. Where he struggles might be mitigated by the course.

We’ve witnessed Hovland struggle on courses where greens are surrounded by high grass and downhill lies. Two points. First, the smaller greens accentuate what Hovland does best: Dial in the irons. Second, the areas surrounding these greens are fairway adjacent, allowing Hovland to use the putter off the green and get more creative. This helped the budding star at St. Andrews when he was in the mix down the stretch before relenting to Cameron Smith.

For me, the price is just about right. Hovland is 33-1 at BetMGM and will jump on our card as our final premier piece before slotting in some longer shots.

Quick Hitters

Louis Oosthuizen +9000 (Caesars) – Louis is back. He has played well on the LIV Tour and chooses to return here instead of the PGA Championship. We are on the former champion with T5 E/W considerations.

Dean Burmester +15000 (DraftKings) – Another LIV golfer with plenty of experience on links courses. He finished 12th at the PGA Championship. Book him outright and for his T5 E/W.

Ewen Ferguson +25000 (bet365) – Hometown golfer with plenty of experience at a nice price tag. In for a big price and the T5 E/W.

Kurt Kitayama +20000 (bet365) – Finished second to Xander Schauffele at the Scottish Open in 2021. Plenty of booms to go with the bust. Last slot with a T10 E/W.

2024 Open Championship Betting Card

Remember, the odds on Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood were odds I landed on because of promotional betting. They are not the same odds posted on online betting sites.

One-and-Done Pick: Ludvig Aberg

The Open Betting Units: 17.725

2024 Net Units: 276.05

With this being the season’s last major, my allotment is extended. With our recent success, I don’t mind taking bigger shots this week before returning to our normal distribution next week. For one-and-done, I will use Ludvig Aberg as my last available superstar in the last big event for the season.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images