2024 RBC Canadian Open Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:39:28

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus today!

After a much-needed break for yours truly following the PGA Championship, the PGA TOUR takes us north for the RBC Canadian Open. This year, Hamilton Golf and Country Club will host the event. Last season, Nick Taylor lit Canada on fire with a long-distance walk-off birdie putt to outlast Tommy Fleetwood. Will a countryman make it back-to-back? Let’s take a look at betting odds, the field, and the course before building our betting card.

2024 RBC Canadian Open Odds

At the time of this writing – May 28th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the RBC Canadian Open:

• 2023 – Nick Taylor (-17)
• 2022 – Rory McIlroy (-19)*
• 2021 – No Event
• 2020 – No Event
• 2019 – Rory McIlroy (-22)
• 2018 – Dustin Johnson (-23)
• 2017 – Jhonattan Vegas (-21)
• 2016 – Jhonattan Vegas (-12)
• 2015 – Jason Day (-17)

*2019 was the last time the event was hosted by Hamilton Golf and Country Club.

The RBC Canadian Open will feature a 156-player field with the top 65 players and ties playing on Saturday and Sunday. Rory McIlroy is on a level above the field, with Sahith Theegala and Tommy Fleetwood following on the odds board. Rory won the RBC Canadian Open in 2019 when it was played at this course — in dominant fashion. Prior, the Canadian Open was played at Glen Abbey in Ontario for four straight years. Course history is a challenge with a rotating event.

Last season, Nick Taylor ended one of the longest droughts in golf, becoming the first Canadian to win the event since 1954. The dramatic finish was one of the more memorable conclusions to a tournament in recent years, as Taylor knocked down a 70+ foot putt to outlast Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff. The course erupted as Taylor entered himself in lore, and Adam Hadwin received a spear as the party commenced. Good times, indeed.

Taylor ranks fifth in betting odds behind four other countrymen: Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes, Taylor Pendrith, and Adam Hadwin. Conners profiles especially well at this event, with ball striking at a premium at the tight, parkland-style course.

Speaking of the course, let’s break it down before building our card.

RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview & Tips

• Course: Hamilton Golf and Country Club
• Date: May 30 – June 2
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,084
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Average Green Size: 6,000

Following Rory’s victory in 2019, the course experienced a complete restoration. The restoration was more for future sustainability and less for playability. The layout of the course was kept, with an additional 112 yards added across the board. Greens, tee boxes, and bunkers were all renovated with a new putting and practice area and irrigation system. Golf Digest named Hamilton Golf and Country Club the “Best Renovation” in January 2023.

Rory’s dominant victory in 2019, when he finished -22, might lead people to believe this week will present a birdie fest. Rory was 1 of 11 players that finished double digits under par. The course will be a challenge and will not benefit length or distance off of the tee.

Speaking of distance, except Rory, the top 10 in 2019 was filled out by the following golfers:

• Webb Simpson
• Shane Lowry
• Matt Kuchar
• Brandt Snedeker
• Adam Hadwin
• Sungjae Im
• Graeme McDowell
• Henrik Stenson

Of note, the golfers above are not long off the tee. Sungjae Im was the only other player that gained on the field in driving distance for the week. Rory put together one of the better performances of his career that week. That said, the prototype for a successful golfer at this event seems to be accurate, plodding, and a strong putter.

To that end, every golfer in the top gained fairways in 2019. The top five fairway finders over the last 24 rounds in this field are Tommy Fleetwood, Aaron Rai, Ryan Moore, Daniel Berger, and Brice Garnett.

The most noteworthy proximity buckets on the course in 2019 were below 150 yards and above 200 yards. With the course lengthened in some spots, I anticipate the over 200 bucket to become more pivotal this season. The top five players in proximity over 200 yards are Kevin Yu, Thornbjorn Olesen, Vincent Norman, Kevin Doughtery, and Patrick Fishburn.

With such a tricky parkland design, approach play will be pivotal. Finding the right level on the new greens seems to be important, with officials now possessing more options for pin positions. SG: Approach will be weighed heavily this week, and precise shot-making will help in what might not end up being a scoring affair. The top five in this category ahead of the event are Conners, Kelly Kraft, Akshay Bhatia, Adam Svensson, and Rai.

For this week’s model, I focused on SG: Approach, Fairways, Putting, SG: ARG, SG: Par 3, Proximity 200+, and SG: T2G. When we weight these categories (approach highly) and cover the last 24 rounds from golfers, the top five golfers this week are: Kraft, Bhatia, Rai, Rory, and Alex Noren.

With readers and bettors likely inundated with information about Rory’s dominant victory in 2019, we might find a group mindset to focus on golfers with similar profiles as Rory. Let’s build our betting card with precision and putting in mind.

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RBC Canadian Open Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Corey Conners +2200

You already knew this was coming. I don’t think I am allowed to build a betting card for the RBC Canadian Open without my favorite, Corey Conners.

Conners has put together a ho-hum season in 2024, but one thing remains true. He strikes a golf ball better than almost everyone in this field. Conners leads the field in SG: Approach and ranks 3rd in SG: T2G. He has always struggled with chipping and putting, but that has not prevented him from winning multiple events on TOUR. If word about the course and its renovation is true, then this week’s winner will need to be very precise with every shot.

If we shouldn’t expect the winner to finish in the 20s, then maybe Conners just scores enough to get the job done with his approach play. Either way, there was no way he wouldn’t be featured on my card. He is in play as a one-and-done selection as well.

Alex Noren +2200

Noren continues to search for his first PGA TOUR victory. In great recent form, he might be able to finally convert at a course that should fit him very well.

Noren leads the field in SG: ARG and ranks 11th in approach. He is solid across the board, finds fairways, and makes enough putts. His proximity from more than 200 yards leaves some to be desired, but we are not anticipating a birdie fest. If Noren misses the occasional green, he should be able to get up-and-down to save pars.

While his inability to clinch that first victory will make Sunday very nervy, nobody is a winner until they finally win. This week could be that week for Noren. He is an outright bet for me and in strong consideration for one-and-done play.

Mackenzie Hughes +3500

Team Canada? Yes. However, Hughes has something in his bag that is second to none.

Putting. Hughes leads the field in putting. This comes as no surprise, as Hughes has perpetually dropped long putts and chips from deep throughout his career. Hughes is putting together a very solid season in 2024, nearly winning the Valspar and finishing T10 at the Wells Fargo. At a course that seems to favor a great putter, Hughes makes all of the sense in front of his home crowd.

Nick Taylor +6000

This is purely a vibes pick. I watched the winning shot on YouTube like six times before writing this article. I cannot shake the image of Taylor celebrating as the crowd erupted.

Objectively, he has played better stretches of golf. Last season, we bet him on the merit of his recent form. This year, I include him at an elevated price as he defends in front of his home fans.

Quick Hitters

Kelly Kraft +30000 – Huge long shot that pays a great sum with a victory. Ranks 1st in my model over his last 24 rounds and might make more sense as a top finishing proposition.

2024 RBC Canadian Open Betting Card

One-and-Done Pick: Alex Noren

RBC Canadian Units: 3.9

2024 Net Units: 119.75

After unloading a bunch of our winnings to no avail at the PGA Championship, we are going to tighten up the purse strings a bit this week. Our current focus is staying in the mix in our one-and-done pools while hoping for an outright victory. Good luck this week.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images