2024 U.S. Open Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:32:56

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus for PGA Pick’em today!

After Muirfield Village humbled PGA TOUR players this past weekend, the USGA looks to do the same to the best field in golf in 2024. Pinehurst No. 2 will host the 2024 U.S. Open and will likely represent the toughest test of the season. The field will be one of the strongest we have seen in some time as the segment of field normally held for amateurs or teaching professionals is reserved for qualifying.

Scottie Scheffler comes in off of his first win at The Memorial in brutal conditions. As an immense favorite, will Scottie win his second major championship in 2024? Let’s take a look at this week’s field and betting odds as well as the course before building our U.S. Open betting card.

2024 U.S. Open Odds

At the time of this writing – June 10th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The U.S. Open:

• 2023 – Wyndham Clark (-10)
• 2022 – Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
• 2021 – Jon Rahm (-6)
• 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
• 2019 – Gary Woodland (-13)
• 2018 – Brooks Koepka (+1)
• 2017 – Brooks Koepka (-16)

On Thursday, 156 players will tee it up, with the top 60 and ties making the cut for the weekend. The U.S. Open will feature the strongest field of the season as past champions are limited to the last 10 years. Further, spots normally reserved for amateur competitors or PGA teaching professionals are instead saved for players who qualify for the event. Adam Scott is in danger of missing this week’s field as he failed to make the event on the merit of his OWGR ranking and narrowly missed qualifying in a playoff against Cam Davis. Scott is an alternate and would end a 91-major streak if he can’t play.

Wyndham Clark returns to defend his championship from LA Country Club last season — albeit in poor form. Along with Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy represent the previous champions in this week’s field.

The U.S. Open Betting Tips & Preview

• Course: Pinehurst No. 2
• Date: June 13 – 16
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,543
• Greens: Champion Ultradwarf Bermuda
• Average Green Size: 6,500

Donald Ross considers Pinehurst No. 2 his most challenging design and a perfect fit for the U.S. Open. Notoriously the most challenging event of the season, Pinehurst No. 2 should take that difficulty to the next level in 2024.

Martin Kaymer famously won the 2014 edition of the championship by a whopping eight strokes. That said, only three players finished under par in 2014 as the firm and fast fairways led to punishing wired grass hazards and adjacent sand bunkers. The bomb-and-gauge approach that has prevailed over the years will not work, as missing fairways will result in penalties.

Worse, the “turtle shell” greens at Pinehurst No. 2 mean a golfer’s work is not done until they hold the right level of the bermuda greens. Previously bentgrass, the greens were converted to championship dwarf bermuda after the event in 2014. The greens are surrounded by diabolical runoffs that will give players nightmares when they find themselves out of position. In 2014, Martin Kaymer putted from off of the green frequently in lieu of using a wedge — a strategy that helped him win The PLAYERS Championship the same year. Around-the-green play and bogey avoidance will be an important consideration when modeling this week.

Further, SG: OTT must be considered as fairways will be so important. While fairways are a must-have, in 2014, 70% of drives did find the fairway. Hitting the fairway isn’t necessarily difficult relative to other U.S. Open venues but the penalty for missing is far more severe. With fairways being firm and fast, driving the ball well will help navigate the high volume of long par 4s.

Eight par 4s span more than 450 yards, while three exceed 500 yards. The course is pretty long but doesn’t play significantly longer than other tracks. The extremely dry conditions in North Carolina could help shorten the course but any errors off of the tee will be compounded when attempting to approach the tricky greens.

SG: Approach is paramount, of course, but even more so to greens that will repel golf balls all week. Players will need to be precise to find the proper levels and not miss fast greens. Pars will be very good throughout the week as holding greens on the more challenging par 4s will be a labor.

The weather should only exacerbate the carnage that awaits golfers this week. North Carolina has been dry, and at the moment, there are no serious storms available to soften the course. Major championships have seen wet conditions over the last couple of years, making scoring far easier. That should not be the case, and we will likely finally see players struggle to stay under par at a venue.

Eleven of the 18 holes feature a bogey or worse rate north of 20%. The two par 5s and the par 4-third are the only holes on the course with a 20% birdie or better rate. The course will be challenging, and bogey avoidance will be crucial in selecting the correct golfers for this week’s betting card, one-and-done pools, and daily fantasy lineups.

We will prioritize the following statistics for modeling this week:

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• SG: Putting
• SG: ARG
• Par 4: 450-500
• Bogey Avoidance

Let’s construct this week’s betting card.

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The U.S. Open Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Brooks Koepka +2200 (FanDuel)

Well, if you have read any of my recent betting previews, you will know I have recently placed a greater emphasis on using any promotional bets I can muster to find future bets for the majors. Well, for the U.S. Open, I started adding every bet I could on Brooks Koepka over a month ago. Koepka had one bad round at the PGA Championship; otherwise, he might have been in the mix on Sunday with Xander and fellow nWo member Bryson DeChambeau.

Now, that bad round counts. However, we know all we need to know about Brooks. He is a major hunter with a penchant for more difficult setups. This might be the most difficult setup we see in 2024, and whenever that is the case, I want Brooks on my card.

While his Strokes Gained numbers are difficult to use in comparison to his peers this week, Brooks is always a force off of the tee and remains one of the better players in the field on par 4s of this length. He is a grinder and will avoid bogeys that many golfers can’t this week.

I was able to amass 200 units on Brooks to win this tournament. I might need to buy a LIV Golf shirt this week. He is going to be my one-and-done selection for any pools that I have him available for.

Tommy Fleetwood +4000 (BetMGM)

Tommy, Tommy, Tommy…

Here we go again. Everyone is a loser until they win, right? Fleetwood does what we need a golfer to do for Pinehurst No. 2. He avoids bogeys, stays out of trouble, saves par, and is excellent around the green. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks 18th in SG: T2G and isn’t too shabby on approach.

I know, I know… He can’t get the job done on Sunday. He can’t close. I can’t argue with any of these reasons not to play Tommy Fleetwood anymore. Yet, I am still going to be him at 40-1.

Hideki Matsuyama +4500 (bet365)

Hideki has been frustrating of late with his injury concerns. That said, he wiped away those concerns for me with an 8th-place finish at The Memorial. He improved each day and finished inside the top ten at what proved to be a very challenging tournament with a great field.

This field is even stronger, but Hideki checks plenty of boxes. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 1st Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, and 5th in Bogey Avoidance. Assuming health, we are getting a really good number on Deki this week. While the promotional bets will continue to pile up on a golfer to be named later, Matsuyama will be on my card this week.

Sepp Straka +9000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka continues to show up at big events in tougher fields. He finished T20 at the Masters and The PLAYERS Championship. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but has back-to-back T5 finishes in his last two starts.

He ranks 7th in Bogey Avoidance and 23rd in our key par 4 range. At 90-1, that is enough to add him and potentially an EW bet.

Quick Hitters

Bryson DeChambeau +2500 (Caesars) – Promotional bets plus my own money are going to make Bryson the second-largest proposition on my card. While bomb and gauge might not be as effective here, Bryson’s game off of the tee at the PGA Championship was amazing. Any replication of that performance puts him in play this week. Any additional promotional bets I have will land on Bryson this week and then I will likely supplement with a bit of cash. I will update the total units on DeChambeau by Wednesday night.

Sam Burns +7500 (FanDuel) – Bet Burns with promotional bets during his short run at the RBC Canadian Open. Plenty of length and nails with the putter.

2024 U.S. Open Betting Card

One-and-Done Pick: Brooks Koepka or Bryson DeChambeau (depending on the pool)

U.S. Open Betting Units: 2.35

2024 Net Units: 112.70

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

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