2025 MLB Home Run Derby Predictions, Odds, and Picks

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2025-07-14 14:24:54

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida is back with everything you need to know to bet on the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby tonight — Monday, July 14th. Don’t live in a state with legal sports betting? Get in on the action by making Home Run Derby fantasy pick’em predictions with our PrizePicks promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 on a $5 entry!

2025 Home Run Derby Preview

Tonight, the MLB Home Run Derby will take place at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia for the first time since the ballpark opened in 2017. This year’s field of 8 sluggers is headlined by MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, who enters the All-Star Break with a league-leading 38 home runs. Emerging stars Junior Caminero and James Wood bring some exciting young talent to the competition in 2025.

2025 Home Run Derby Odds & Participants

The MLB Home Run Derby odds referenced above are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and subject to change.

Park Factors – Truist Park

Park factors consistently play a significant role in the Home Run Derby. In 2022, we wrote in this article that Dodger Stadium had played much more homer-friendly to righties, which was largely supported throughout the event. In 2021, both finalists were righties at Coors Field – a venue that also had significant platoon splits. We saw similar park factors play a role in this event in Cleveland in 2019 and San Diego in 2016 as well.

Tonight, the lefties may have an advantage. This season, Truist Park has played much more homer-friendly to lefties, with a 113 park factor at night this season compared to a 76 park factor for righties. However, unlike some ballparks that consistently yield stark platoon splits, Truist Park hasn’t shown these trends year over year, suggesting that there could be some first-half noise in these numbers. Still, at a minimum, the lefties in tonight’s field certainly won’t be at a disadvantage to their right-handed competitors.

MLB Weather for the 2025 Home Run Derby

Here is what our Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth, is expecting for tonight’s contest:

A steamy night in Atlanta with high humidity. Winds are also blowing out to center lightly (5 mph sustained, 10 mph gusts). It’s not the best weather I’ve ever seen, but hot, humid, and winds gently blowing out is certainly a boost to bats, and we should see some good carry tonight for the Derby. Side note that there’s a low chance for a stray shower or storm.

What have these hitters been up to lately?

Similar to previous seasons, it’s recommended to place a good amount of emphasis on the 30-day rolling numbers for metrics such as exit velocity, launch angle, and bat speed for tonight’s Home Run Derby contestants. Said another way, it’s important to examine how hard these players have been hitting the ball, and at what angle, compared to the preceding 30 days of action.

Notably, Bobby Witt Jr. had the highest average increase in launch angle in the preceding 30 days leading up to last year’s event, before losing by 1 home run in the finals to Teoscar Hernandez. This year, hometown representative Matt Olson has seen the most favorable change in this metric heading into the Derby, increasing his average launch angle by 4.3° during the last 30 days. Junior Caminero and James Wood have also been trending in a notable positive direction in launch angle of late.

Tonight’s field has 4 players who rank in the top 10 in bat speed across the last 30 days: Oneil Cruz, Junior Caminero, Cal Raleigh, and James Wood. Bat speed is important for two reasons. For one, it’s a simple math equation: 1 mph of bat speed translates to roughly 1.2 mph of exit velocity, which equals approximately 7 feet of distance on a fly ball. Of course, an extra 7, 14, or 21 feet can be tremendously important in an event where the only thing that matters is whether or not the ball clears the outfield fence. The other reason bat speed is important is because of stamina. Players who have “easy” bat speed – meaning that they don’t need to exert 110% effort on every swing to have a chance to hit a home run – are better positioned to maintain their stamina throughout this type of event, compared to players who need to put forth more effort on each individual swing.

Travel concerns?

Fortunately, there should not be too many issues related to travel in this year’s event, with 7 of the 8 Home Run Derby participants coming from reasonable distances to Atlanta. The one notable exception is Brent Rooker, who will travel over 2,000 miles from Sacramento. His travel distance is more than twice as long as Junior Caminero’s, who has the 2nd-longest journey of the Home Run Derby players.

Notably, James Wood and Oneil Cruz each received an off-day yesterday, so both should be fresh and ready to go tonight. Cal Raleigh was used as Seattle’s designated hitter yesterday, so he is likely to be in better shape prior to heading to Atlanta than if he were to catch that game.

Home Run Derby Opening Round Betting Lines & Picks

The MLB Home Run Derby opening round odds referenced above are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

Oneil Cruz Over/Under 21.5 Home Runs

Prior to 2024, there was no formal maximum number of pitches that a hitter could see during an individual round. As a result, there were vast disparities in the total number of swings that a hitter was able to get off in the allotted 3 minutes, depending on pace and cadence. Last year, the rules changed for the Home Run Derby, limiting hitters to either 3 minutes or 40 pitches, whichever came first (excluding the bonus period). Also relevant, bonus time has been changed to an outs format, rather than simply giving hitters an additional 30 seconds or 60 seconds of additional time for home runs over a certain distance.

The consequence of this rule change was that no player hit more than 21 home runs in the opening round of last year’s event. Truist Park should play slightly more friendly to hitters tonight than Globe Life Field did last year, but this is still a very high number to be priced near even money. It’s also worth noting that Cruz has been trending in the wrong direction in terms of average exit velocity, bat speed, and launch angle during the last 30 days. Cruz is rested heading into tonight’s action after having yesterday off, but this is still a tall number for him in the opening round of the Home Run Derby.

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• PICK: Oneil Cruz UNDER 21.5 Home Runs – Round 1 (-120, DraftKings)

Home Run Derby Semifinals Predictions

Cal Raleigh

Fun fact: no catcher has ever won the Home Run Derby. Cal Raleigh (also known as “Big Dumper”) could be the one to make history. Raleigh is in the midst of a truly historic season, entering the All-Star Break with a league-leading 38 home runs, which is more than twice as many home runs as Logan O’Hoppe and Hunter Goodman, each of whom rank 2nd among catchers with 17 home runs.

Raleigh also profiles well in this event for a few other reasons. He has the 2nd-shortest flight distance of any player in tonight’s field, coming in from Detroit yesterday. Raleigh was also used as Seattle’s designated hitter each of the last two days, so his legs should feel relatively fresh compared to some of his peers who have been tasked with playing the field over the weekend.

During the last 30 days, Raleigh has also increased his average launch angle while maintaining a strong pulled air% and elite bat speed. Earlier this week, he was practicing for the Home Run Derby hitting from the left side, which could offer some park factor advantages as well. This is a little juicy for a 1st-round play, but there are plenty of reasons to like Raleigh in tonight’s event.

• PICK: Cal Raleigh to Advance to the Semifinals (-185, BetMGM)

Matt Olson

There aren’t many examples of players winning the Home Run Derby in their home ballpark, but Olson is well-positioned to make a run in tonight’s event. He leads all of the contestants in launch angle increase during the last 30 days (+4.3°), has added bat speed during that time period (+1.1 mph), and has the 2nd-best average exit velocity in this evening’s field (93 mph). The biggest challenge for Olson is that yesterday’s game against the Cardinals endured a long rain delay, keeping him at the ballpark until after 9:00 PM ET, so there could be some travel-related fatigue.

That being said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Olson overcome the difficult travel spot. Olson was born and raised in Atlanta, attending Parkview High School. Thus, he’s not only the hometown representative of the Braves this evening, he’s playing in his hometown, which could lead to a little bit of extra adrenaline and focus relative to some of his competition. This is good value for Olson to at least make it through the 1st round.

• PICK: Matt Olson to Advance to the Semifinals (+106, FanDuel)

2025 Home Run Derby Winner Prediction

It’s not difficult to talk oneself into betting on Cal Raleigh, who is the favorite, but if looking for a little bit more upside, Matt Olson could be worthy of consideration. Bryce Harper (2018) and Todd Frazier (2015) are the only two recent examples of a player winning the Home Run Derby in their team’s home ballpark, but Olson has the potential to add to that list. Olson participated in the Home Run Derby in 2021 at Coors Field, hitting 23 home runs in the opening round, including a pair of balls that went 495 feet. Olson has a swing that profiles well in this type of competition – he could make a deep run tonight in his home ballpark.

• PICK: Matt Olson to Win the 2025 Home Run Derby (+900, FanDuel)

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