2026 MLB Home Run Derby Preview: Odds, Predictions, Participants, and Format

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2026-07-13 12:23:58

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida is back with everything you need to know to bet on the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. Don’t live in a state with legal sports betting? Get in on the action by making Home Run Derby fantasy pick’em predictions with our Underdog promo code “GRINDERS” to get $50 in bonus entries!

2026 Home Run Derby Preview

Tonight, the MLB Home Run Derby will take place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia for the first time since the ballpark opened in 2004. This year’s field of 8 sluggers is headlined by MVP candidates Junior Caminero of the Rays and Ben Rice of the Yankees. Hometown contenders Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber bring plenty of pop to this year’s competition as well.

2026 Home Run Derby Odds & Participants

The MLB Home Run Derby odds referenced herein are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and subject to change.

Park Factors – Citizens Bank Park

Park factors consistently play a significant role in the Home Run Derby. In 2025, we mentioned that left-handed hitters possessed an advantage – Cal Raleigh took home the crown. In 2022, we wrote in this article that Dodger Stadium had played much more homer-friendly to right-handed batters, which was largely supported throughout the event. In 2021, both finalists were right-handed batters at Coors Field – a venue that also had significant platoon splits. We saw similar park factors play a role in this event in Cleveland in 2019 and San Diego in 2016 as well.

Tonight, our left-handed hitters may have an advantage once again, though it’s worth noting that Citizens Bank Park isn’t prohibitive for home runs to either side of the plate. Since the beginning of 2024, only Daikin Park in Houston has played more favorable to left-handed power at night than Citizens Bank Park – something to watch for Kyle Schwarber, Munetaka Murakami, Jac Caglianone, Bryce Harper, and Ben Rice.

What have these hitters been up to lately?

In 2025, Junior Caminero and Oneil Cruz stole the show in the opening round, each hitting 21 homers. Notably, Caminero and Cruz had the highest average bat speed in the big leagues during the 30 days preceding last year’s contest. Cal Raleigh, the winner of the 2025 Home Run Derby, had top-tier bat speed in addition to one of the highest pull-air% rates leading up to the All-Star Break.

Bat speed is relevant for a couple of reasons. For one, it’s a simple math equation; 1 mph of bat speed translates to roughly 1.2 mph of exit velocity, which equals approximately 7 feet of distance on a fly ball. Of course, an extra 7, 14, or 21 feet can be tremendously important in an event where a few feet of fly-ball distance can be the difference between advancing to the next round or being eliminated. The other reason bat speed is worth paying attention to is because of stamina. Players who have “easy” bat speed, meaning they don’t need to exert 110% effort on every swing to have a chance to hit a home run, are better positioned to maintain their stamina throughout this type of event, compared to players who need to put forth more effort on each individual swing.

Last year’s field had four players rank in the top 10 in bat speed during the 30 days preceding the competition – three of them made it to the semifinals, and both finals participants came from that sample of players.

This season, Junior Caminero, Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras, Jac Caglianone, and Kyle Schwarber each rank in the top 10 in bat speed across the last 30 days. Schwarber and Caminero also rank in the top 7 in pull-air% rate during the past month.

Similar to previous seasons, it’s recommended to place a good amount of emphasis on the 30-day rolling numbers for metrics such as exit velocity, launch angle, and bat speed for tonight’s Home Run Derby contestants. Said another way, it’s important to examine how hard these batters have been hitting the ball, and at what angle, compared to the preceding 30 days of action.

Travel concerns?

Some years, the travel schedule plays a sizable role in this event, with players flying from one city to another after playing in a game on Sunday. In 2022, for example, Kyle Schwarber (-340) had to get on a cross-country flight to participate in the Home Run Derby, which contributed to a more-rested Albert Pujols (+270) delivering a big opening round upset as the #8 seed in a bracket format.

There don’t appear to be any major travel concerns in this field. Jordan Walker, who is coming from St. Louis, could be a little bit fatigued after playing the outfield each of the last three days, but nobody is facing a 2022 Schwarber-esque logistics challenge.

2026 Home Run Derby Format

New Format, New Betting Edge?

The format has been changed for this year’s Home Run Derby. Instead of timed rounds, the league has decided to move to permitting each participant a finite number of swings – similar to the original format of the event, in which each participant was limited to 10 outs.

The new rules will limit each contestant to 20 swings in Round 1, 15 swings in Round 2, and 15 swings in the final round. The top four home run totals from the opening round will advance to the semifinals, where players will be seeded based on their Round 1 home run totals – #1 vs. #4 and #2 vs. #3.

Some quick math lands us at 250 swings for tonight’s Home Run Derby – 8 participants x 20 swings in Round 1 = 160 swings, 4 participants x 15 swings in Round 2 = 60 swings, 2 participants x 15 swings in Round 3 = 30 swings. However, the one exception to the “finite” amount of swings is that if a player hits a home run on their final swing of a round, they will be allowed to continue swinging until they fail to hit a ball over the fence. Of course, we could see a Josh Hamilton-esque performance lead to one player skewing the final home run total for the night. More likely, though, is that historic performance doesn’t repeat itself.

It’s also worth noting that a player might end up taking fewer than the maximum allotted number of swings in a round if they have already done enough to advance to the next round. For example, if Junior Caminero faces Kyle Schwarber in the finals, Schwarber might only need 8 swings to surpass Caminero if Tampa Bay’s young star puts up a low total as the first player to swing in the round.

In short, the Home Run Derby is a difficult event. We have seen players deliver goose eggs in a similar format – notably, Robinson Cano in 2012 and Jason Bay in 2005. Even in a talented field, there is likely to be one or two players who put up a very low total in the opening round. There is a lot of unknown betting on a new format in this year’s event, but there could be tremendous value on unders if we don’t see anyone get too hot at the end of a round, where finite swings become theoretically infinite.

Elevate and Celebrate

The 2026 Home Run Derby features one of the most talented groups we have seen in this event in recent memory. Junior Caminero, Jordan Walker, Willson Contreras, Jac Caglianone, and Kyle Schwarber each possess elite bat speed. The new format, in which hitters will be able to collect their breath between swings – rather than race against the clock – could lead to some extra power being put on display. Oh, and don’t forget that Major League Baseball is deploying baseballs that have less drag than we have seen in prior years.

The new format will allow fans to watch the entirety of the ball flight before the next pitch is thrown. If nothing else, this will be a fun wager to root for on Monday.

• PICK: Distance of Longest Home Run – OVER 484.5 Feet (-120, DraftKings)

2026 Home Run Derby Winner Prediction

Last year, we wrote that the case for Cal Raleigh was clear and obvious. Yet, the price wasn’t particularly enticing for an event that has a lot of variance built into the format. This year, we are in a similar spot with Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero, who have experience in the Home Run Derby and all the advanced metrics we like to see in a potential champion.

It’s always more fun to bet on a dark horse in these types of All-Star festivities, but Schwarber and Caminero are the top favorites for valid reasons. There is plenty of talent in this year’s field, but none fit our criteria better than those two sluggers.

• PICK: Kyle Schwarber To reach the Semifinals (-185, Caesars)
• PICK: Junior Caminero To reach the Semifinals (-140, BetMGM)
• PICK: Junior Caminero To Win Home Run Derby (+456, Novig)

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