2023 3M Open Golf Betting Tips: TPC Twin Cities Course Preview

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:33:40

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 3M Open. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on PGA DFS Pick’em entries this week!

With the 2023 Major season in the rear-view mirror, the PGA Tour prepares to close the season with the final two events before the FedEx Cup playoffs. This week, the tour moves to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open. Players will scramble for valuable FedEx Cup points before the final stop next weekend at the Wyndham Championship. With the playoffs including only 70 players this season, players on the outside looking in will be looking to capitalize on one of the final opportunities of the season. Tony Finau won last season and is back to defend his title. Will the betting favorite triumph again, or will a scaled-back field produce another first-time winner? Let’s start with the field and betting odds.

2023 3M Open at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – July 25th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the 3M Open:

• 2022 – Tony Finau (-17)
• 2021 – Cameron Champ (-15)
• 2020 – Michael Thompson (-19)
• 2019 – Matthew Wolff (-21)

156 golfers will trek to TPC Twin Cities in an effort to secure some points prior to the end of the golf season. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend.

Notably, Justin Thomas was a late add to this field as he sits out of the top 70 in the current FedEx Cup standings. Unless Thomas can put together something special over the next two weeks, he will miss the playoffs. A Major championship winner last year, Thomas missing the playoffs would be quite the development.

Tony Finau is followed up by Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, and Hideki Matsuyama on the odds board. All three golfers are outside of the top 30 in the standings and would like to add some points ahead of the beginning of the playoffs. Finau rests inside the top 10 because of the strength of his early season. His recent form has not been ideal but a return to Twin Cities might be the elixir he needs to get back on track ahead of the playoffs.

Additionally, players like Justin Suh, Michael Kim, and Gary Woodland rest outside the top 70 and are in this week’s field. While everyone in the field will be pushing to break through with a big victory, several players will look to secure a playoff spot with a week to spare. Let’s dive into TPC Twin Cities.

2023 3M Open Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Twin Cities
• Date: July 27 – 30
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,431
• Greens: Bentgrass

After two weeks of links golf — no disrespect to the Barracuda Championship — players return to familiar parkland golf at TPC Twin Cities. The Minnesota golf offers a tree-lined layout, thick rough, and boy, a ton of water. Accuracy off the tee will be imperative, but driving distance isn’t irrelevant. At north of 7,400 yards as a par 71, shorter hitters will be at a disadvantage if the longer hitters can keep the ball in play.

The course offers myriad birdie opportunities, but the presence of water everywhere means any hole can amount to an explosion. The greens are expansive and lack character, so strokes gained putting and around-the-green will be far less vital. Instead, ball striking will be paramount.

Four of the five toughest holes on the course in the four-year history of the tournament are Par 4’s falling in the range of 450-500 yards. One of the Par 3’s, at close to 230 yards, represents the final piece to that challenging puzzle.

Conversely, the Par 5’s are big-time scoring opportunities, with all three holes posting birdie rates above 30%. All three par 5’s have an eagle rate above 2%, with the 12th seemingly the easiest; players converted for birdie nearly 50% of the time on this hole over the first four iterations of the 3M Open.

We are going to weigh SG: OTT and SG: Approach pretty heavily this week and limit the importance of short-game statistics. BOB% and bogey avoidance will find their way in the middle as we look for opportunities as well as players that can avoid the blowups. Par 5 scoring will be important as players cannot afford to miss out on the crucial opportunities present by the three easiest scoring holes on the course.

With this in mind, let’s take a look at a few golfers ahead of the event.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +2500

We skip down the first flight of golfers on the odds board not because they cannot win but because there is no way I will play outrights at these numbers. If one of Tony Finau, Cam Young, or Sungjae Im wins the event, so be it. Alright, yes, I will be pretty upset if Cam wins.

In any event, Sepp Straka feels like a bargain at 25-1 given his recent form. While the 3M Open is nothing like the courses he played over the two weeks, Straka consistently created opportunities over the weeks after winning the John Deere. If we are building a betting card, this price is not that egregious where we cannot capitalize on the big man’s recent play.

With very little time left in the OAD season, Straka might be sneakier than he should be if players still have any of the big names available.

Lucas Glover +4500

After a great week at the Barbasol, Lucas Glover finds himself at a course that will reward his incredible tee-to-green resurgence. Glover ranks 6th in T2G over his last 36 rounds and is playing in a field of comparable strength to his recent events.

Last year, Glover would already feel like a lock for the playoffs but the move to 70 players puts Lucas on the outside looking in. Sitting at 104th ahead of this tournament, Glover will need a big couple of weeks to make a push to the playoffs. His ball-striking form should carry him and keep him out of trouble. The diminished importance of short-game statistics helps us with our confidence in him as he typically struggles on and around the greens.

At 45-1, Glover is likely a popular bet and DFS play this week. That said, he presents some value when many options have been priced up.

Eric Cole +5000

The 3M Open has not offered much in the way of an archetype player for the event. Two of the winners gained immensely in the field in the T2G category while Cameron Champ and Michael Thompson led the field in putting when they hoisted the trophy.

Cole has the best of both worlds. He finds himself inside the top 10 in T2G stats but has the top-ranked short game in the field. The worrying facet of Cole’s game is SG: OTT, where Cole is way below field average. Given the length of the course and the need to avoid trouble, Cole will need to bring his best game off the tee to compete with the likes of Tony Finau and Cameron Young.

That said, Cole has been near a breakout all season. Safely inside the top 50 of the FedEx Cup, Cole can focus simply on notching his first tour victory this week. At 50/1, we could do worse.

Justin Suh +6600

Just outside of the top 70, every shot will count for Justin Suh this weekend. At +6600, Suh makes sense as a lower mid-range option on your betting card.

While his tee-to-green statistics leave plenty to be desired, Suh makes up for his woes on the greens. Second, in putting, Suh fits the mold of Michael Thompson and Cameron Champ and could putt his way to a trophy.

Maybe a more sensible top finisher bet, Suh has six consecutive made cuts. If he makes the cut, he could propel himself up the board with the flat stick. We have included him before and we will likely find ourselves with a sprinkle because of his putting.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images