2024 3M Open Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-07-24 20:39:41

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus for PGA Pick’em today!

Sadly, the 2024 majors season is complete. With Xander Schauffele swiftly adding another feather to his cap, the PGA TOUR begins its descent towards the FedExCup Playoffs. This week, TPC Twin Cities hosts the 3M Open. The field is stronger than we’d assume after a major in another country. Lee Hodges returns to defend his title. Let’s take a look at betting odds, the field, and the course ahead of making our golf betting picks for the 2024 3M Open.

3M Open Odds

At the time of this writing – July 23rd – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are all of the winners of The 3M Open:

• 2023 – Lee Hodges (-24)
• 2022 – Tony Finau (-17)
• 2021 – Cameron Champ (-15)
• 2020 – Michael Thompson (-19)
• 2019 – Matthew Wolff (-21)

As noted, the field is slightly stronger than what we are accustomed to for Minnesota. Tony Finau makes this part of his schedule each season. However, TPC Twin Cities welcomes Sam Burns and Billy Horschel off of incredible Open Championship performances. Further, Sahith Theegala and Akshay Bhatia join the fray as favorites for this week’s birdie fest.

Otherwise, the theme is youth just outside of St. Paul, Minnesota. Nick Dunlap, now a 2-time winner on the PGA TOUR, will play along with Luc Clanton, Marc Meissner, and a host of other young professionals in search of their breakout moment on tour.

Even with a weaker field, the 3M Open will be a fun tonic for a stretch of highly competitive golf. Let’s review the course and set the stage for this week’s golf betting card.

The 3M Open Betting Tips & Preview

• Course: TPC Twin Cities
• Date: July 25 – 28
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,431
• Greens: Bentgrass

Over its history, the 3M Open favored the longer hitters, with Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, and Matthew Wolff excelling in the parkland design. Lined with plenty of trees and A LOT of water, bombers that could avoid water found success. In 2023, Lee Hodges bucked the trend with the lowest score in tournament history. Hodges ranks 126th in this week’s field in driving distance.

A full field of 158 golfers will look for birdies this week. The 65 lowest scorers and ties will play the weekend in what will surely be a low-scoring affair. Aside from the water hazards to avoid, TPC Twin Cities does not offer much in the way of defense. The greens are expansive and lack character, so Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green will be less important. Instead, ball striking will be paramount, and the best ball strikers will be presented with myriad birdie opportunities.

Four of the five toughest holes on the course in the 5-year history of the tournament are par 4s falling in the range of 450-500 yards. One of the par 3s, at close to 230 yards, represents the other toughest hole on the course. Otherwise, the players will see green light after green light.

Naturally, the par 5s are the best scoring opportunities for players. All three holes posted birdie rates above 30% over the 5-year history of this course. The eagle rates for these holes are all north of 2%, with the 12th hole surrendering 50% birdies. Pars on these holes should be considered bogeys.

We will weigh SG: OTT and SG: Approach pretty heavily and limit the importance of short-game statistics. Birdie or Better %, par-5 scoring, and opportunities will be weighed heavily as we are looking for players that will go low. Here are the categories we will use for our model:

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• SG: Putting
• Birdies or Better Gained
• SG: Par 5
• Opportunities Gained
• Proximity 175-200
• Eagles

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The 3M Open Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Akshay Bhatia +2200 (BetMGM)

Akshay Bhatia has the 3rd-shortest odds, which is warranted. While he did not make the cut at The Open Championship, Bhatia is thriving on the PGA TOUR in 2024. With a win at the Valero and a close call at another festival of birdies (Rocket Mortgage Classic), Bhatia is set for this event.

Bhatia ranks in the top 10 of our model over his last 24 rounds. Unlike many of this week’s competitors, Bhatia compiled these statistics at tougher events with tougher fields. The 3M Open is a downshift in competition. Akshay’s approach game and penchant for birdies should suit him just fine.

With the experience of winning and also losing from this season, Bhatia is primed for another good week. We open our card with him at 22-1.

Taylor Pendrith +3500 (bet365)

With a win this season, Pendrith is not priced according to his most recent play. That said, another low-scoring affair could suit the Canadian professional who excels at ball striking and putting.

Pendrith got home at the AT&T Byron Nelson after a long period of poor form on the PGA TOUR. Since his victory, Pendrith hasn’t been in great form, with the U.S. Open as an exception. He hits it long and can roll putts.

With an event that should demand a score of -20 or better, we need a player who can tear the course up off the tee and cash in on his birdie putts. I am going to hope he gets it back on track ahead of the FedExCup Playoffs with a victory in Minnesota.

Rico Hoey +7000 (BetRivers)

After a near win at the ISCO a couple of weeks ago, Rico Hoey brings a proper skillset for TPC Twin Cities. A birdie machine, Hoey will attempt to continue stellar play off the tee at the 3M Open.

Given his form over the last couple of weeks, I was surprised to see Hoey at 70-1. The field strength is similar to the ISCO and Barracuda Championship, and we still see a great price on Hoey. Hoey ranks first in eagles, second in SG: Par 5, and sixth in SG: OTT. Not a one-trick pony, Hoey ranks in the top half of the field in approach and putting. He should create opportunities on a relatively easy course.

We jump on this price before he gets steamed up ahead of Thursday’s tee time.

Quick Hitters

Maverick McNealy +5500 (bet365) – McNealy needs to keep up the good work on the PGA TOUR as he continues to play on a medical exemption. He leads the field in Birdies or Better Gained.

Hayden Springer +15000 (BetRivers) – He’s fifth in SG: Par 5 and 16th in BOB. Springer can go low, as we saw with his 59 at the John Deere.

Brice Garnett +25000 (DraftKings) – Trivia question. What player in this week’s field has made the cut in all five years at TPC Twin Cities? You guessed it. Booking Garnett for a top finisher or each-way bet.

2024 3M Open Betting Card

One-and-Done Pick: Tony Finau

The 3M Open Betting Units: 5.9

2024 Net Units: 256

A brutal weather wave knocked our 20-unit card on The Open Championship out before Friday afternoon. A few frisky live bets brought the cost up to about 20 units for the week. I am glad we got that out of our system. I am upping my windfall as we approach the end of the season. To not confuse things, I will keep my unit size the same and indicate how many units a 50-unit win will cost.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

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