3M Open Odds & Golf Betting Picks: Johnson Favored at TPC Twin Cities

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2021-07-20 20:08:16

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting picks for the 3M Open. Here’s a closer look at 2021 3M Open odds at online sportsbooks.

In the wake of The Open Championship and with the Olympics looming, the PGA Tour stops at TPC Twin Cities for the third 3M Open. Due to scheduling, the field is a bit weaker, but FedEx Cup points are FedEx Cup points whenever they are available. We are going to cover the field, betting odds, and the course. Oh, and of course, we need to find a few outrights. Let’s dig in.

3M Open Odds

Oddsmakers posted outright betting odds for the third edition of the 3M Open. Here is a rundown of the top players per BetMGM as of the morning of Tuesday, July 20th.

Jason Kokrak withdrew from the field after a strong weekend showing across the pond. Brian Harman withdrew after The Open Championship and Seamus Power withdrew after his first career victory at the Barbasol Championship. Dustin Johnson is clearly the class of the field — followed by names such as Louis Oosthuizen (oh, Louie), Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, and former champion, Matthew Wolff.

Now that we are familiar with the key names in the field, let’s preview the course.

3M Open Preview

• Course: TPC Twin Cities
• Date: July 22-25
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,431
• Greens: Bentgrass

TPC Twin Cities plays host to the 3M Open. The Arnold Palmer design is relatively long for a par 71 and features… a lot of water. Twenty seven water hazards and plenty of sand represent the defense for a course that is pretty gettable.

Matthew Wolff won the event in 2019 at -21 while last year’s champion, Michael Thompson, finished at -19. Birdies will be of pivotal importance this week. For myself, SG: Approach, SG: OTT, BOB%, and Par 5 scoring will be key stats. We will surely glance at putting but as we learned at The Open Championship, even a weaker putter can have a great week (Collin Morikawa).

Here is the bottom line. This tournament is going to be a birdiefest. I believe that this is a great week to take shots on outright bets a bit lower down the board.

3M Open Golf Betting Picks

Emiliano Grillo +3300 (BetMGM)

Grillo returns from a weekend run at The Open Championship. The story with Grillo is pretty much always the same — he rests in the upper echelon in the field for SG: Approach and birdie opportunities but needs to putt. File this under the “I just watched Collin Morikawa lead a field in putting” category and give me Grillo on a course where birdies are the most important stat. He sits just behind Stewart Cink in approach and should have plenty of opportunities to putt for birdie.

This is the shortest number I will grab this week for an outright bet.

Bet Emiliano Grillo to win the tournament +3300

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Place Bet

Hank Lebioda +5000 (PointsBet)

Hank Lebioda keeps knocking on the door for a tournament victory — especially in the weaker fields. With a top ten rank over his last 36 rounds in approach, Lebioda is also very capable with the flat stick. Hank boasts three consecutive T10 finishes with at least five strokes gained putting in each start.

The recent form places Hank at 86th in the current FedEx cup standings. He surely will look to solidify his spot in the playoffs with a great performance at TPC Twin Cities. Lebioda makes for a really good outright and top finisher bet as well as a strong “DFS”:www.rotogrinders.com option. It is time to break through, Hank.

Luke List +6500 (FanDuel)

Did I mention excellent approach games with questionable putters? Hello, Luke List.

Ranked 9th in his last 36 rounds in SG: Approach (Nice!), List is ranked 133rd in SG: Putting (Yikes!). List is the prototype for “if he ever just putts it well” type of player. He ranks fifth in SG: OTT during that same time frame which likely contributes to ranking top ten in Par 5 scoring.

His length will provide ample opportunities for List. He makes for a strong outright as he seeks his first career victory on Tour. Price shopping is of vital importance as you must maximize the return for a great putting week.

Bet Luke List to win the tournament +6500

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Place Bet

Troy Merritt +10000 (PointsBet)

Merritt recently played in a long playoff that culminated in Cam Davis’ first career win on tour. While he is not excellent off the tee, Merritt mitigates that part of his game with a nails putter. Ranked second in putting this week, Merritt should be able to cash in on any opportunities he finds on a relatively easy course.

At this price on PointsBet, we can lower our wager to ¼ or ⅓ unit for a considerable payoff. Add him to your card and hope he finds fairways.

Thanks for reading. Look for upcoming content on golf at the Olympics. Who will bring home the gold?

Image Credit: Imagn