Primetime Parlay: 49ers vs. Vikings Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 11:45:06

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the San Francisco 49ers versus the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.

The NFL closes Week 7 on what could have been a spotlight game. The Minnesota Vikings will welcome the San Francisco 49ers. While the 49ers look like a true contender to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the Vikings’ season continues to circle the drain. As big home underdogs, will the Vikings make this game close, or will the 49ers rebound after a mystifying loss to the Cleveland Browns? We will glance at betting odds, injury news, and relevant statistics before constructing a same-game parlay ticket for Monday Night Football.

49ers vs. Vikings Same Game Parlay

At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook pegs the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites for tonight’s game. Without Justin Jefferson, the Vikings will likely be underdogs for a long stretch of time — if not the rest of the season. 76% of spread bets and 81% of money has been bet on the 49ers throughout the week, but the line moved a half-point in the direction of the Vikings. Interesting…

Per SAO, the implied game total of 43 points was bet down from 44.5 despite most of the tickets and money coming in on the over. I am not sure how to make heads or tails of this situation, but it certainly makes me feel more inclined to look at player props in lieu of the efficient Vegas lines.

Justin Jefferson is out for the foreseeable future for the Vikings. Minnesota will play tonight without Marcus Davenport, who suffered a high-ankle sprain and should be out for 4-6 weeks. The Vikings seem likely to be sellers as the trade deadline approaches on Halloween and could start aggressively fielding offers if tonight is a complete disaster.

For the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey is likely to play, barring any setbacks. Deebo Samuel is likely to miss action until after the Week 9 bye, while Trent Williams is very doubtful for tonight’s game. Otherwise, the 49ers come in as a far more talented team on both sides of the ball. Now that the first loss is in their rear-view mirror, the Niners can work towards the actual goal — winning a Super Bowl.

Unsurprisingly, the 49ers are atop the charts in most of the offensive categories, including scoring offense and yards per play. Christian McCaffrey seems to be perfectly cast for this system while Brandon Aiyuk continues to emerge as the receiving threat the 49ers though they drafted seasons ago. Brock Purdy continues to run the offense efficiently and protect the football. The Vikings would need a handful of fortunate bounces to compete in tonight’s game.

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That said, the Vikings still feature Kirk Cousins in command of the offense. Cousins is having a decent season despite the injury woes facing the team, as well as the turnover issues that continue to plague the offense. Of course, many of those turnovers fall at the feet of Cousins. However, the signal-caller is in command of the 8th-ranked scoring offense in the league. The Vikings’ myriad mistakes and less-than-stellar defense account for the horrible first third of the season.

Without Justin Jefferson, the Vikings will struggle to move the ball against a team that surrenders only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Instead, Minnesota should look to Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers against a more middling rush defense that is allowing 4.0 yards per carry. We are splitting hairs, here. Minnesota is faced with an arduous evening. Hanging on to cover the spread would be bordering miraculous on Monday night.

So, what does ParlayIQ think? Let’s comb through the thousands of simulations to see if we can go back-to-back after hitting our three-leg parlay on Sunday night.

Same Game Parlay Picks for MNF

McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Aiyuk Over 70.5 Receiving Yards
Mattison Over 45.5 Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Christian McCaffrey finally didn’t score a touchdown against the Browns in Week 6. So, of course, he is due.

ParlayIQ features 64% simulations with CMC finding paydirt. McCaffrey — if playing — should find plenty of opportunities to carry the ball and will be the dominant figure in the red zone. The 49ers, projected to win by a full touchdown, should be able to put points on the board against a very suspect defense.

While I am not a fan of booking touchdowns, McCaffrey feels just as likely to score as several of his teammates do to catch passes. We will start here and build out.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 70.5 Receiving Yards

Nothing brings more joy to yours truly than writing down a prop and having ParlayIQ agree with me. With Deebo Samuel hurt, I was very interested in what betting sites would offer for Brandon Aiyuk and blindly interested in the over. Luckily, ParlayIQ agrees that this number might be a bit too low.

In 63% of our simulations, Aiyuk goes over this receiving prop. Aiyuk has already shown plenty of upside when the Niners are healthy; I imagine the sky is the limit with Deebo Samuel missing tonight’s game. Aiyuk, Kittle, and McCaffrey should see an uptick in targets in Samuel’s absence.

We add this to our ticket and look to the other side of the field for anything that might be interesting.

Alexander Mattison Over 45.5 Rushing Yards

Finally, the 49ers’ defense is elite but can struggle a bit with running backs. We are looking for an edge against this stalwart front. Without Justin Jefferson, the Vikings might opt to keep the 49ers’ offense off the field if they can find some success in the running game.

We can be honest. Moving the ball forward against this defense is going to be a challenge. That said, if somehow the Vikings can commit to the run game to keep Kirk Cousins upright, they should. Last week, Mattison took the bulk of the work from the backfield with Cam Akers acting merely in relief. If we see a similar split, Mattison can exceed this number even if his gains are inefficient.

Otherwise, the prop market is tricky with Minnesota. The over on K.J. Osborn was interesting but the 49ers tend to put the clamps on opposing passing attacks. We will stay on the ground to close out our ticket.