San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction & Pick
49ers vs. Browns Odds
| 49ers Odds | -9.5 |
| Browns Odds | +9.5 |
| Over/Under | 35.5 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 15 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday afternoon, the injury-plagued Cleveland Browns will host Brock Purdy and the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers. Deshaun Watson has been ruled out for Cleveland, leaving P.J. Walker as the team’s starting quarterback in Week 6.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the 49ers as 9.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 35.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy looking to keep perfect season alive
Heading into the weekend, Brock Purdy leads the NFL in QBR and is the owner of a sterling 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio to begin the new campaign. Last weekend, Purdy led the 49ers offense to 42 points against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football – marking the team’s fifth consecutive 30-point game to start 2023.
San Francisco has successfully used a balanced approach this fall, ranking in the top five in success rate through the air and on the ground through five games. Even against a tough Cleveland defense, San Francisco should be able to find a way to put a fair amount of points on the board in this contest.
Ferocious 49ers defense gets favorable Week 6 matchup
Entering play on Sunday, the 49ers defense ranks 5th in EPA/play and 12th in success rate this season. They have been particularly strong against the pass, ranking 4th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate defending opposing quarterbacks. On Sunday, San Francisco will get to face P.J. Walker, who is the third quarterback to start a regular season contest for Cleveland in their first five games.
The absence of Nick Chubb and a pair of starting offensive linemen makes Cleveland’s running game less of a threat as well, which puts San Francisco’s defense in a position to dominate in this matchup.
Cleveland Browns
What to expect from P.J. Walker
According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, P.J. Walker was elevated from the practice squad on Saturday, “so he can start against the 49ers.” Walker last played in an NFL regular season game for the Carolina Panthers during the 2022 campaign. He enters play on Sunday with a career 5-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 57.5% completion rate.
Walker has been particularly poor when under pressure during his professional career, completing only 26.7% of his pass attempts in such situations in 2022, 33.3% of such attempts in 2021, and 42.9% of such attempts in 2020.
Facing a dynamic San Francisco pass rush in Week 6, Walker has an extremely limited ceiling, which does not bode well for the Cleveland offense.
Browns’ defense healthy coming off of bye
After being limited earlier this week at practice, Myles Garrett practiced in full on Friday and did not have an injury designation on the final practice report of the week. As a result, Cleveland’s defense is completely healthy heading into Week 6, as they look to pull off an upset victory against the undefeated 49ers.
During the first three weeks of the season, the Browns’ defense played at a historic level, allowing only one offensive touchdown in that span. Even against Baltimore, Cleveland’s defense allowed only 16 first downs and 296 yards of total offense. They “allowed” 28 points only because they were consistently attempting to defend short fields due to three turnovers by the offense.
49ers vs. Browns – Picks & Predictions
According to industry-leading meteorologist, Kevin Roth, sustained winds of 15-20 miles per hour are expected in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon, with gusts of up to 30 miles per hour. In addition to the windy conditions, rain is likely throughout the contest, making life even more difficult for the passing game.
Sportsbooks are in essence begging bettors to bet the over in this contest, with the total dropping significantly from its open at over/under 41 points earlier in the week. The combination of P.J. Walker and inclement weather is unlikely to produce many points in this one. Assuming Cleveland’s defense can hold their own in front of their home fans, this could be the lowest scoring game of the week across the NFL.
PICK: Under 35.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)