San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds, Prediction & Pick
49ers vs. Vikings Odds
| 49ers Odds | -7 |
| Eagles Odds | +7 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Mon, Oct. 23 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 7 of the NFL regular season will conclude with a prime-time matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings. Ahead of kickoff, the 49ers have already ruled out Deebo Samuel, with Trent Williams likely following suit in the next few hours. Minnesota will be without their top wide receiver, Justin Jefferson.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the 49ers as 7-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
San Francisco 49ers
How will Brock Purdy handle the blitz?
Through six games this season, no defense in the NFL has blitzed as often as Minnesota. All things considered, Brock Purdy has held his own against the blitz in 2023, though his efficiency does take a slight hit in such situations.
According to PFF, Purdy has completed 75.0% of his pass attempts for 9.8 yards per attempt when not blitzed this year, compared to a 57.9% completion rate and 7.0 yards per attempt when he is blitzed. Nevertheless, the 49ers have emphasized this area of the game relentlessly throughout the week at practice, according to the avalanche of reports from the team’s beat writers.
Earlier this season, the New York Giants blitzed Purdy on 33 of his 39 dropbacks, but had minimal success slowing him down. Purdy finished with 310 passing yards and a pair of passing touchdowns for the game. Though Minnesota’s defense is better than New York’s, it stands to reason that Purdy is capable of staying afloat in this matchup, similar to how he did in Week 3.
The biggest concern for this group is the likely absence of Trent Williams. Williams ranks 8th out 73 qualified tackles in run blocking grade and 19th as a pass blocker this fall, per PFF. His replacement, Jaylon Moore, has played sparingly since being drafted in the fifth round in 2021 out of Western Michigan. He will have a tough task tonight against a blitz-heavy defense.
What to expect from San Francisco defense
San Francisco has been one of the NFL’s best defenses during the early portion of the season, ranking 3rd in EPA/play and 7th in success rate. Yet, they have been vulnerable against opposing rushing attacks, ranking 24th in defensive Rush EPA/play and 26th in success rate.
Notably, defensive linemen Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave have been extremely mediocre in run defense grade, per PFF, this fall. The weak interior defensive line for San Francisco could be an issue once again for this unit in short-yardage situations on Monday.
Minnesota Vikings
Impact of Justin Jefferson absence
Justin Jefferson will be on the sidelines once again this evening against the 49ers, marking his second consecutive game missed. During the first five weeks of the campaign, Jefferson was averaging over 100 receiving yards per game, leading the team in nearly every meaningful pass-catching metric.
Still, Minnesota’s offense ranked only 17th in dropback EPA/play and 17th in dropback success rate in that stretch. Last weekend, Minnesota ran the ball 22 times with minimal success – amassing only 46 total rushing yards for the game.
It is safe to say that this offense is weakened considerably with Jefferson not on the field. Kirk Cousins and the rest of this group could struggle this evening.
Minnesota defense facing tough task against San Francisco
Despite off-season predictions that Minnesota was in full tank mode, the defense has been respectable during the first half of the season, ranking 17th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate. This is a blitz-happy group that has transitioned into somewhat of a positionless matrix after six games this year – something that appears to be working increasingly well as the season goes on.
After a poor start to the year, Minnesota has generated a defensive pressure rate of 31.8% or better each of the last two weeks, which is among the best rates in the NFL in that admittedly small sample size. If this unit can get pressure on Brock Purdy tonight, this game could end up more competitive than the market is currently indicating.
49ers vs. Vikings – Picks & Predictions
Yesterday, bettors witnessed a number of high-scoring affairs across the league, but that is unlikely to continue into Monday Night Football. Both San Francisco and Minnesota will be down an offensive lineman tonight. San Francisco will also be missing Deebo Samuel. Christian McCaffrey didn’t finish last weekend’s loss against Cleveland, but is reportedly going to play tonight. The Vikings will not have their top playmaker, with Justin Jefferson not available for tonight’s affair. Points are going to be hard to come by for both of these offenses. Do not be surprised if we end up with an ugly, low-scoring game to close out the week. Buy a half-point on Fanatics sportsbook or shop around to get push potential on the key number of 44.
PICK: Under 44 (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)